AM Briefing #840: Wait For The High Probability Trade
AM BRIEFING
ES CHART | KEY LEVELS | SETUPS
ES Technical Analysis — AM Briefing 840 Timeline
Tuesday August 25, 2026
| TIME | CHAPTER |
|---|---|
| 0:00 | Welcome ES MES Futures Traders |
| 0:27 | Scripture of the Week: Decently and in Order Let all things be done decently and in order. George reads it as leverage discipline and waiting for the next high probability trade. |
| 0:55 | Today's News Drivers ADP employment prints pre-market, with new home sales and the Richmond Manufacturing Index 30 minutes after the open. Tomorrow's Core PCE is the show of the week. |
| 1:29 | Battle Plan Anatomy A weekly walk through the Battle Plan. The review section is free for all, while the members plan maps the next trade ideas with a short audio. |
| 2:37 | The System: Fewer, Higher Quality Trades Risk first focus, laser tight entries, and the 3-Contract System. Add to winners, never losers, and keep perfect patience through slow months. |
| 3:26 | Trade Review: The Battle Plan 3 Bounce Battle Plan 3 bounced off the apex during Asia to London for a possible 20 to 30 points on three contracts. The livestream caught a clean 12-point long. |
| 4:31 | Strong Levels and the Strong Range Strong Levels update every Sunday. This week the key zone is a Strong Range, and price tap danced all around it. |
| 4:51 | To the Chart: Runner Management Peel, peel, then a single auto runner ladders back and survives a double tap. George is long into a green day with a continuation long. |
| 5:35 | The Overnight Short and the Stop A non-official short held with the stop at commissions got tagged overnight. Out clean, flat and fresh, then stepped into a long at a Battle Plan location. |
| 6:36 | Dow Breakout and VWAP Structure The Dow built a base on a high time frame trendline and exploded above it. Up-slanting VWAPs sit above previous day highs, confirming the long bias. |
| 7:01 | The Target and Come Join Us Live The mapped move points up near 7720. We go live 15 minutes before the open to talk about what happens next. |
MES MICROS TRADE PLAN
Wait For The High Probability Trade
Posted: Tuesday August 25, 2026
This week's scripture set the whole tone… let all things be done decently and in order. For a futures trader that means two things. Discipline your leverage. And wait for your next high probability trade. Today's session showed exactly what that looks like in motion… a Battle Plan bounce caught overnight, a clean 12-point move on the livestream, and price pressing up into a Strong Range with the ultimate mapped target sitting up near 7720. This is an ES futures morning briefing built for the trader who wants fewer, better trades held with real conviction.
DECENTLY AND IN ORDER
The scripture of the week is your operating manual. Let all things be done decently and in order. Order is your leverage. Order is your patience. You size correctly and you wait for the trade to come to you at the right location.
That is the whole game. Not chasing. Not forcing. You map the board the night before, then you let price walk into your level.
Trader Lesson 1
Decently and in order means two disciplines… control your leverage and wait for the high probability trade. Everything else is noise.
THE BATTLE PLAN ANATOMY
Once a week we walk the Battle Plan so you know what you are looking at. There are two sections. The review section is free for everybody. The Battle Plan itself is for members.
- Review section (free): what happened today, the recap video, trade analysis, trade management analysis, runner analysis, the tip of the day, the trainer, homework, the scoreboard, and the economic calendar for the next two days.
- Battle Plan (members): where we map our next trade ideas. Market context, member tools, a price map, and the plan itself, with a short audio walkthrough George keeps to three to five minutes.
If you are thinking about becoming a member, watch the review section for a week or two first. Read it, listen to it, watch it. Then decide.
THE SYSTEM: FEWER, HIGHER QUALITY TRADES
Our system is designed to build a great trader. You do that by taking fewer, higher quality, well-thought-out trades. Risk first focus. Laser tight entries. The 3-Contract System doing the heavy lifting.
Why hold a lot of money on the table? Because you want to play perfect chess and capture the big move when it comes. You add to your winning trades. In this group we add winners… we never add to a loser.
The work early in your progress is not always fun. You refine your trade plan. You analyze your behavioral patterns. You have to be honest with yourself and scrutinize your own performance. Then you trade the same process every single day.
Trader Lesson 2
Add to winners. Never add to losers. Your capital belongs behind the trades that are already proving you right.
Trader Lesson 3
Slow development months are not a signal to tinker. Keep the same process, keep perfect patience, and let the good months pay you.
TRADE REVIEW: THE BATTLE PLAN BOUNCE
Battle Plan number three set up during the Asia to London session. Almost impossible to be in unless you are an international member, like a trader watching from Norway. It was a beautiful bounce off what we call the apex of the Battle Plan.
It did not tag the outlying target. We never know how far price will go. But if you took that bounce with three contracts you were probably up 20 to 30 points and done for the day. Later, on the livestream, we caught a long for a clean 12-point move. We also talked a short that never gave the entry, so we stood aside.
Trader Lesson 4
You never know how far price will run… but you know where price is attracted to go. Trade the location, not the prediction.
STRONG LEVELS, THE STRONG RANGE, AND THE RUNNER
Strong Levels are the most important levels for the week. They update every Sunday. This week the map is not a single line… it is a Strong Range, and price tap danced all around it.
On the chart the 3-Contract System did its job. Peel, peel, then a single auto runner laddered back and survived a double tap. That is the routine we preach live every day and trade live every night. George is long into this move, so a green day, with a continuation long stacked on top.
There was also an overnight short George flagged in the review section as a non-official Battle Plan trade he would take again. He held one contract with the stop set at commissions. Price came back and got him, he woke up out, and that is fine. Set your stop where you are willing to lose, then be flat and fresh. He was up at 3 a.m. on a project, stepped in at a Battle Plan location, took some back and forth, and is still holding the long.
Structure is why. The Dow finally came into a high time frame trendline, built a base, and exploded above it. VWAPs are slanting up, sitting above previous day high after previous day high after previous day high. The mapping had the long, and the ultimate target sits up near 7720. We go live 15 minutes before the open to talk about what happens next.
Trader Lesson 5
Peel, peel, hold the single runner. Ladder it back and let it survive the double tap so one contract can capture the big move.
Trader Lesson 6
Set your stop at the price where you are truly willing to take the loss. If it gets tagged, you wake up flat and fresh with a clear head for the next location.
ON THE ECONOMIC CALENDAR
Know your drivers before you size up. ADP employment printed pre-market, with more data 30 minutes after the open, and the real show lands tomorrow.
| Date | Event | Significance |
|---|---|---|
| Today | ADP Employment | Pre-market read on private hiring. |
| Today | New Home Sales & Richmond Manufacturing Index | Housing and regional factory activity, 30 minutes after the open. |
| Tomorrow | Core PCE | The Fed's number one inflation gauge for setting interest rates. The show of the week. |
"I never know how far price is going to go… but I know where price is attracted to go."
COMMON QUESTIONS FOR ES FUTURES TRADERS
What does "decently and in order" mean for an ES futures trader?
A: It means two disciplines. Control your leverage so a bad trade cannot hurt you, and wait for your next high probability trade instead of forcing entries. Order is patience plus correct position sizing.
What is in the free Battle Plan review section?
A: The review section is unlocked for everybody. It holds what happened today, the recap video, trade analysis, trade management and runner analysis, the tip of the day, the trainer, homework, the scoreboard, and the economic calendar for the next two days.
What is the 3-Contract System in futures trading?
A: It is Micros Trader's core position sizing framework. You enter with three contracts, peel off two into strength to lock profit, and hold a single runner to capture the big extended move. It lets you take money off the table while still staying in for the home run.
How do you manage a runner after it survives a double tap?
A: After you peel your first contracts, you ladder the final runner back to a strong location and let it hold through a double tap of that level. Surviving the double tap keeps you in the trade so one contract can ride the larger move you mapped.
Why do you add to winning trades and never to losers?
A: Adding to winners puts more size behind a trade the market is already confirming. Adding to a loser doubles down on a position price is fighting. Your capital belongs behind the trades that are proving you right.
What is the difference between a Strong Level and a Strong Range?
A: Strong Levels are the most important price levels for the week, refreshed every Sunday. Sometimes the key zone is a single line, and sometimes it is a Strong Range… a band of price rather than one number. This week ES tap danced around a Strong Range.
Where should I set my stop loss on a futures trade?
A: Set it at the exact price where you are genuinely willing to take the loss. If price tags it, you are out clean, flat and fresh, with a clear head for the next high probability location instead of babysitting a bad position.
What is Core PCE and why does it matter to ES futures?
A: Core PCE is the Federal Reserve's number one inflation gauge for setting interest rates. Because rate expectations move the S&P 500, a Core PCE print can drive volatility across ES and MES micro futures, so it pays to know when it lands and moderate your size around it.
LIVE
SESSIONS
📅 Upcoming This Week
Hit the bell — every AM Briefing and live trading session this week is already scheduled on YouTube:
- Wednesday, Wed Aug 26: AM Briefing · Live Stream
- Thursday, Thu Aug 27: AM Briefing · Live Stream
- Friday, Fri Aug 28: AM Briefing · Live Stream
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