AM Briefing #843 — The Range Rules That Ran The Week
AM BRIEFING
ES CHART | KEY LEVELS | SETUPS
ES Technical Analysis — AM Briefing 843 Timeline
Friday August 28, 2026
| TIME | CHAPTER |
|---|---|
| 0:00 | Welcome ES MES Futures Traders |
| 0:28 | News Drivers & Tip of the Week Chicago PMI, Jackson Hole day two, and Warsh speaking 30 minutes after the open put Friday rules on steroids. The tip of the week is the range rules rule that dictated everything. |
| 0:58 | Weekly Trade Review Setup A different look at the week. Battle Plan about 60 points, Zoom about 60, Core Strategy about 50. Solid, not the hundreds we sometimes see. |
| 1:29 | Monday: Apex & the Asia High A Battle Plan 3 apex trade targeting the Asia high, since London takes out Asia's low and high. A 15 point max run and a reason to survive the double tap. |
| 2:23 | Monday Live: The Reclaim Long A live long ran 12 to 13 points and a reclaim setup turned into a nice trade. You only need one good trade a day to lock in green. |
| 2:52 | Tuesday: Free Live, 20 Pointer After the tariff candle price got back above the strong range for a long into the opening price. Ideal 20 point take profit. |
| 3:20 | Wednesday: Single Prints & Range Rules Single prints and range rules pointed to shorts up top and longs down low. A held runner had a potential 80 pointer, but not into Nvidia earnings. |
| 3:47 | Thursday: Battle Plan Reclaim Longs Battle Plan 2 short fell short of target. The live long came on the reclaim and re-tap into the strong level, with Battle Plan 1 offering a 30 pointer. |
| 4:45 | Overnight: Bull Bear Line Reclaim Battle Plan notes flagged the loss and reclaim of the bull bear strong level. Price reclaimed the line and gave an entry to the next strong level. |
| 5:18 | Where We Stand: Bulls Control Above the bull bear line and in the upper distribution of yesterday's range. Bulls control, innocent until proven guilty, with no sellers showing yet. |
| 6:15 | Friday Caution & How to Watch We broke out yesterday and it is Friday, so all entries are low quality. Trade with us live 15 minutes before the open. Be careful. |
MES MICROS TRADE PLAN
The Range Rules That Ran the Week
Posted: Friday August 28, 2026
One rule ran this entire week and it is the tip of the week… range rules. Define the range, trade the edges, hold a lotto runner in case it breaks in your direction. That is what carried the ES futures morning briefing every session. Overnight the bulls reclaimed the bull bear strong level and price is now hanging in the upper distribution of yesterday's range, so bulls control, innocent until proven guilty. But it is Friday, Warsh speaks thirty minutes after the open, and we broke out yesterday… which means every entry is low quality right now. Trade small, if at all.
THE TIP OF THE WEEK: RANGE RULES RULE
The range rules dictated everything this week, and it is something this room does very well. Define the range. Look for shorts up at the top edge. Look for longs down at the bottom edge. Let the muddy middle go. Then keep a lotto runner on in case price breaks clean in your direction.
That discipline is why the week stayed green even when the follow through was tough. You were looking for the right trades in the right trade locations, which is the whole game in a market that keeps stalling before target.
Trader Lesson 1
Define the range, then trade its edges. Shorts up top, longs down low, and hold a lotto runner in case price breaks clean your way.
THE FULL WEEK IN REVIEW
The results this week were not anything to write home to mom about, and that is the honest read. Battle Plan booked about 60 points, Zoom about 60 points, Core Strategy about 50 points. Sometimes those numbers run into the hundreds. Not this week. So here is the week walked trade by trade so you can see the mapping in action.
- Monday: A Battle Plan 3 trade off the apex ran to near perfection. If you waited for the ladder the follow through was weak, likely a breakeven or small green. From the apex you were targeting the Asia high, because London typically takes out Asia's low and Asia's high… a 15 point max run. Later on the live session a long ran 12 to 13 points, and a reclaim long turned into a nice trade.
- Tuesday (free live on YouTube): After the tariff candle price got back above the strong range. There was your long, targeting the opening price. Ideal take profit, a 20 pointer. Bag it, tag it, be done.
- Wednesday: Single prints and range rules said look for a short up in one area and a long down in another. Core Strategy gave two clean short entries. Down low, range rules flipped you to look for a long. A held lotto runner had a potential 80 pointer on it… but it was not prudent to hold a runner into Nvidia earnings.
- Thursday: Overnight the Battle Plan 2 short played out but did not make target, a 15 point move. The live long came on the reclaim and re-tap into the strong level. Battle Plan 1 offered a potential 30 pointer, or 80 if you held the runner from Wednesday using range rules.
- Overnight into Friday: The Battle Plan notes were the key. Loss and reclaim of the bull bear strong level should be of interest, and it was flagged in Discord. Price reclaimed the bull bear line and gave an entry targeting the next strong level.
Trader Lesson 2
You only need one trade a day that really goes your way to lock in a nice green day. Stop hunting once you have it.
SURVIVE THE DOUBLE AND TRIPLE TAP
What is happening on nearly every entry right now? Double and triple taps. Price retests your level two and three times before it finally moves. So you have to structure the trade to survive that. Peel your first contracts on the move, and keep your lotto runner able to sit two or three points in the negative without stopping you out.
That is the 3-Contract System doing its job… peel, peel, hold a runner just in case. When price balances back and forth between strong levels, peeling at the next level is the ideal play, because that is how this tape moves.
Trader Lesson 3
This market double and triple taps every entry. Give your runner room to survive being two or three points offside so you are still in when it finally runs.
Trader Lesson 4
A runner could have paid 80 points on Wednesday… but holding one into Nvidia earnings was not prudent. Protect the gain, skip the earnings gamble.
WHERE WE STAND: BULLS CONTROL
Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday we were down in the lower part of the chart and bears controlled, because price sat under what we believe to be the bull bear line. Then we got our breakout, the long here, and the Nvidia candle. Now we are in a new section of the chart entirely.
As objectively as possible… we are above the bull bear line, sitting in the upper distribution of yesterday's range. Bulls control. They are innocent until proven guilty. Price is bouncing back and forth through the strong levels and performing very well, and there do not appear to be any sellers in the market at this time. Everyone is in the same upper distribution, just hanging out.
What would flip the bias? First we lose the bull bear line. Then we lose yesterday's low. Then we get back under the strong range. Until that sequence happens, the bulls own the tape.
FRIDAY RULES ON STEROIDS
Today is Friday, so Friday rules are in full force. On top of that we broke out yesterday and Warsh speaks thirty minutes after the open on the second day of the Jackson Hole Symposium, with Chicago PMI on the calendar too. That stacks the odds against clean setups.
Looking to next week, the calendar heats right back up with non-farm payroll, the Beige Book and JOLTS. That is more reason to stay disciplined today rather than force a trade into a low quality Friday.
| Date | Event | Significance |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 28 | Chicago PMI | Regional activity read on a Friday tape. |
| Aug 28 | Jackson Hole, Day 2 + Warsh | Warsh speaks 30 minutes after the open… headline risk into the session. |
| Next week | Non-Farm Payroll, Beige Book, JOLTS | Jobs and Fed data cluster that can reset the range. |
Trader Lesson 5
Friday after a breakout means low quality entries. Friday rules are full force, so size down, stay selective, and be careful.
"You only need one trade a day that really goes your way and you're going to lock in a nice green day."
COMMON QUESTIONS FOR ES FUTURES TRADERS
What is the range rules rule in ES futures trading?
A: It is a simple discipline for range-bound tape. You define the range, look for shorts at the upper edge and longs at the lower edge, avoid the muddy middle, and hold a lotto runner in case price breaks clean in your direction. It ran every session this week in the AM Briefing.
What is the bull bear line and why does it matter?
A: The bull bear line, or Bull Bear Strong Level, is the key dividing level between a bullish and a bearish bias. When price sits above it, bulls control. When price sits below it, bears control. This week price lost it, then reclaimed it overnight, which flipped the read back to bulls in control.
How do I survive a double or triple tap on my entry?
A: Structure the trade to absorb the retest. Peel your first contracts into the initial move to lock partial profit, and keep your runner able to sit two or three points in the negative without stopping out. This tape retests almost every entry before it finally runs, so a runner with no room gets flushed early.
Should I hold a lotto runner into major earnings like Nvidia?
A: In George's humble opinion, no. A held runner on Wednesday had a potential 80 pointer on it, but carrying that speculative runner overnight into a report as big as Nvidia earnings is not prudent. The gap risk can wipe out the gain the runner is meant to capture.
What is the 3-Contract System?
A: It is the core position sizing framework in this room. You peel the first contract, peel the second, and hold the third as a lotto runner just in case price extends. It lets you bank profit on the meat of the move while keeping upside if the trade turns into a big one.
Why are entries called low quality on a Friday after a breakout?
A: Friday rules are already in full force because of position squaring and options-related flow. Stack a fresh breakout and a scheduled speaker like Warsh thirty minutes after the open, and clean structure breaks down. That combination makes setups low quality, so the play is to size down or stand down.
What are single prints and how do they guide trade location?
A: Single prints are price levels that traded through quickly with little volume build. They help mark where price is likely to move fast, and combined with range rules they point you to look for a short in one area and a long in another rather than chasing the middle.
What would flip the current bias from bullish to bearish?
A: A clear sequence. First price would have to lose the bull bear line, then lose yesterday's low, then get back under the strong range. Until all three happen, bulls stay in control and are treated as innocent until proven guilty.
What does peeling contracts between strong levels mean?
A: Price tends to balance back and forth between strong levels. So an ideal spot to take partial profit, or peel a contract, is right as price reaches the next strong level. You bank progress at each level and keep a runner on for the chance of a larger move.
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