How One Lotto Runner Can Make Your Day | AM Briefing #839
AM BRIEFING
ES CHART | KEY LEVELS | SETUPS
ES Technical Analysis — AM Briefing 839 Timeline
Monday August 24, 2026
| TIME | CHAPTER |
|---|---|
| 0:00 | Welcome ES MES Futures Traders |
| 0:27 | Episode 839 and This Week's Scripture George re-records the briefing after an audio dropout. This week's line: let all things be done decently and in good order. |
| 0:54 | Economic Calendar: Bessent, PCE, Warsh The NES Nano contract may trade today. Bessent speaks later, Warsh 30 minutes after the open, and PCE lands Wednesday as the Fed's top inflation gauge. |
| 1:17 | Tip of the Day: The Lotto Runner A single contract holding a lotto runner can make your day. George sets up why runner management is today's theme. |
| 1:25 | Last Week's 70 Point Runner A Battle Plan short banked about 30 points per contract, but a held lotto runner captured the full move near 70 points and kept paying. |
| 1:57 | New Tools: Tradovate DOM and NES Sim George adds the Tradovate DOM to end-of-day charts and opens NES practice on the trade simulator at microstrader.com. NES moves in a half step. |
| 3:00 | Battle Plan Basics for New Traders Squiggly lines are the Battle Plan zones, short up high and long down low. Click the level number in the Chrome extension to read its notes. |
| 3:38 | Strong Levels and Drop Zone Entries Horizontal lines are the Strong Levels. Enter in the drop zone, let the bounce fill you, and take profit before the next Strong Level. |
| 4:34 | The Key Level: RTH High Gap Fill 7637.75 The most important level today is the RTH high at the gap fill of 7637.75. George wants to see it pushed through with a vengeance. |
| 4:46 | Runner Management: Hold the Minus 5 Stop Peel contracts and keep the lotto runner at minus 5 points. That stop survives a double tap, and only then do you trail to break even. |
| 5:55 | Wicked Price Action and the Gap Fill Read No 15 point candles yet. The gap fill tells the story: break below it clean for a strong move south, or ladder back if it stalls. |
| 6:31 | Battle Plan 3 to Add to Winners BP3 was mapped overnight and beaten up. George would use it to add to a winning long rather than start a new fight. |
| 6:44 | Are the Indices on the Same Train? Russell and Dow sit upper distribution while ES and NQ lean to lose Friday's low. Not all on the same train, a Monday Blues split. |
| 7:32 | Close and Live Session Details That wraps the briefing. Live on Zoom and YouTube 15 minutes before the market opens. |
MES MICROS TRADE PLAN
How One Lotto Runner Can Make Your Day
Posted: Monday August 24, 2026
This ES futures morning briefing rides on one number and one habit. The number is the RTH high gap fill at 7637.75… the line George says tells you everything about today's tape. The habit is runner management. Last week a single lotto runner rode a positional short for a move that dwarfed the base trade, and that is exactly why today's tip of the day is simple: one runner, held right, can make your day. Below you get the key level, the minus 5 stop trick, the Battle Plan basics for anyone new, and the index correlation read heading into a PCE week.
THE LINE IN THE SAND: RTH HIGH GAP FILL
George's read for the day starts and ends at one ES futures key level: the RTH high, which sits at the gap fill of 7637.75. That number is the pivot the whole session leans on.
- Push through with a vengeance: He wants to see price drive through the gap fill. Break below it clean and it opens the door for a strong move to the south.
- Get near but do not fill: If price approaches the level and stalls, that is your cue to start laddering back with conviction rather than forcing the break.
- Battle Plan 3 overhead: BP3 was mapped overnight and has since been beaten up. George would use BP3 to ADD to a winning long, not to start a fresh fight.
The overnight low lined up perfectly with the apex of the Battle Plan draw at BP3. Map the board first… then let the level do the deciding.
TIP OF THE DAY: THE LOTTO RUNNER THAT PAYS
A lotto runner is a single, speculative contract you let ride long after your base trade has banked. It is low probability on any given day. When it hits, it changes the math of your whole week.
Here is the proof from last week. The Battle Plan mapped a short that was almost too short to bother with. Taken as a positional short and held through the RTH session, it delivered about 30 points per contract… Jackie was in that one and took the 30. But the trader who kept a lotto runner on captured the entire move, roughly 70 points. And if you held… and held… and held, it kept paying. Same entry. Wildly different outcome. The runner is the difference.
Trader Lesson 1
One lotto runner, held through the session, can make your day. Bank your base trade, then let a single contract chase the big move… that is the trade that pays for the quiet days.
RUNNER MANAGEMENT: PARK YOUR STOP AT MINUS 5
Holding a runner is a skill, not luck. George's method on this morning's move was to peel and peel off contracts, then keep the single lotto runner with its stop at the minus 5 point position. That minus 5 is his favorite place to hold a lotto stop.
Why minus 5 and not break even? Because it gives the trade room to breathe. Price came back and double tapped the level, and a runner parked at minus 5 survived that tap and caught another leg in his direction. The rule that follows: once you get the double tap, THEN move your stop to break even. That is fine, no problem. Move it too early and the double tap knocks you out before the real move.
Trader Lesson 2
Keep the lotto runner stop at minus 5 points so it can survive a double tap. Move to break even only AFTER the tap confirms… not before.
BATTLE PLAN BASICS FOR NEW TRADERS
New to the group? Here is how the MES micro futures trade plan is built. Every night MicrosTrader maps a fresh written daily trade plan, and it comes down to two kinds of marks on your chart.
- The squiggly lines: These are the Battle Plan mappings. When price gets into the B zones up high, that is where you look to go short. Down low, that is where you look to go long. If you run the Chrome extension indicators, click the number on the Battle Plan level to read the notes for that exact trade.
- The horizontal lines: These are the Strong Levels. Combined, they mark where you want to go long, where you want to go short, and how Strong Levels and Strong Ranges help you time an entry.
The mechanics of the Core Strategy in one pass: enter your orders to go long as price drops into the drop zone, price bounces and gets you in, then take profits before the next Strong Level. On one example George cited, that flow banked 36 points on a trade that carried a 100 point runner behind it. Want it candle by candle? The free course at microstrader.com walks the whole thing.
Trader Lesson 3
Enter as price drops into the drop zone, let the bounce fill you, and take profits before the next Strong Level. Structure your entries around the levels… do not chase in the open air between them.
ARE WE ALL ON THE SAME TRAIN?
Before you lean on a bias, George checks whether the Russell, the Dow, the NQ, and the ES agree. When all four point the same way, that is Session Stacking and your conviction earns a boost. This morning they split.
- Russell and Dow: Sitting in the upper distribution. Still leaning up.
- ES and NQ: Look like they want to lose Friday's low and go attack the gap fill down near the 37 handle. Downward sloping VWAP, and price cannot seem to reclaim the VWAP.
So the answer today is no… we are not all on the same train. That divergence is the "Monday Blues" setup George flagged, and it is why he is watching that low so closely. When the indices disagree, size down and let the tape resolve.
Trader Lesson 4
Check whether the Russell, Dow, NQ, and ES are all on the same train before you commit. Agreement is confirmation… divergence is a reason to trade smaller.
THE WEEK AHEAD: PCE, BESSENT, WARSH
This is a data week and the economic calendar deserves respect. Know when the volatility lands before you commit size.
| Day | Event | Significance |
|---|---|---|
| Monday (today) | Bessent speaks later today; Warsh speaks 30 minutes after the open | Speeches from policy voices can jolt the tape right after the bell… moderate expectations into the first hour. |
| Wednesday | PCE report | PCE is the number one inflation indicator the Fed uses to set interest rates. The single biggest scheduled catalyst of the week. |
Trader Lesson 5
Map the calendar before the open. With Warsh 30 minutes after the bell and PCE on Wednesday, know where the news lands and let the volatility pass before you press.
One more note from the tools: George added the Tradovate DOM to the end-of-day charts and opened up NES (Nano ES) practice on the trade simulator at microstrader.com. The NES contract moves in a half step between ticks, so if you want to practice it, do it in the sim first before it matters live.
"That little short was almost too short to bother with… but the trader who kept a lotto runner on captured the entire move. The runner is the difference."
COMMON QUESTIONS FOR ES FUTURES TRADERS
What is the most important ES futures level today?
A: The RTH high, which lines up with the gap fill at 7637.75. George treats it as the line in the sand… a clean break below it opens a strong move south, while a stall just under it is a cue to ladder back.
What is a lotto runner in futures trading?
A: A lotto runner is a single speculative contract you leave running well past where you banked your base trade. It is low probability on any given day, but when it catches a full move it can outsize the entire rest of your session. Last week one runner turned a roughly 30 point short into a roughly 70 point win.
Why keep a runner's stop at minus 5 points instead of break even?
A: The minus 5 position gives the trade room to survive a double tap of the level before it runs. A stop moved to break even too early gets knocked out on that tap. The rule is to hold at minus 5, wait for the double tap to confirm, and only then trail to break even.
What is the Battle Plan?
A: The Battle Plan is MicrosTrader's written daily ES trade plan, mapped fresh every night. On the chart the squiggly lines are the Battle Plan zones (short up high in the B zones, long down low), and clicking the level number in the Chrome extension shows the notes for that specific trade.
What are Strong Levels and Strong Ranges?
A: Strong Levels are the horizontal lines on the plan that mark high-conviction spots to go long or short. Combined with Strong Ranges, they help you time entries: you drop an order into the drop zone, let the bounce fill you, and take profit before the next Strong Level.
What does it mean when George asks if the indices are on the same train?
A: It is a correlation check across the Russell, Dow, NQ, and ES. When all four point the same direction that is Session Stacking and it strengthens the bias. When they split, as they did today with Russell and Dow up but ES and NQ leaning to lose Friday's low, you size down and let the tape resolve.
What is the PCE report and why does it matter this week?
A: PCE is the Personal Consumption Expenditures inflation reading, the number one indicator the Fed uses to set interest rates. It lands Wednesday and is the biggest scheduled catalyst of the week, so plan your size around it rather than getting caught in the volatility.
What is the NES or Nano ES contract?
A: NES is a nano-sized S&P 500 futures contract that moves in a half step between price increments. MicrosTrader added it to the trade simulator so you can practice it risk free, and there is a full walkthrough video on the channel.
How do I join the live ES trading room without paying Apple fees?
A: Join through your browser instead of the app. Open Chrome, go to youtube.com, and log in there… joining inside the app routes payment through Apple. The room also runs on Zoom and YouTube starting 15 minutes before the market opens.
LIVE
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- Wednesday, Wed Aug 26: AM Briefing · Live Stream
- Thursday, Thu Aug 27: AM Briefing · Live Stream
- Friday, Fri Aug 28: AM Briefing · Live Stream
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