AM Briefing #853 — Respect The Level 10 Week
AM BRIEFING
ES CHART | KEY LEVELS | SETUPS
ES Technical Analysis — AM Briefing 853 Timeline
Monday September 14, 2026
| TIME | CHAPTER |
|---|---|
| 0:00 | Welcome ES MES Futures Traders |
| 0:37 | Contract Rollover Tonight Starting tonight we trade the new contract. The nightly ES plan gets written on it, so tonight's Battle Plan may post a little late. |
| 0:58 | The Week Ahead: FOMC And OPEX The calendar stacks the day before FOMC, FOMC, the day before OPEX, then OPEX. Fed watch odds of a rate hike near 86.5%. |
| 1:20 | Battle Plan Basics Refresher The zigzag lines are the actual trades and elbows mark entries. Strong Levels update Sunday, the Battle Plan updates nightly, and together they are the plan. |
| 2:49 | Tip Of The Day: A Level 10 Week Highest respect on the dial. Clean, clear trades only. Do not force, do not drop time frames. Plenty of opportunity is coming. |
| 4:04 | The 50 Point Gap Down Biggest gap in a while and the risk of holding runners over the weekend. Mark Sunday's open, Friday's close, and 50% of the gap as bounce levels. |
| 5:13 | Battle Plan 1 And The Bull Bear Line If the bulls are real, the Bull Bear Line is as low as we go. Price lost it, so the rally read as short covering, not real demand. |
| 7:04 | Battle Plans 2 And 3 BP2 is a scalper's trade into the drop zone. BP3 asks if the bulls can defend the 7590 Strong Level again, with BP4 waiting below. |
| 8:25 | Reading Targets On The 3-Minute BP1 expected the biggest reaction, BP2 and BP3 carry small targets. Price retested 50% of the gap, gave a baby bounce, then continued lower. |
| 11:43 | Counting Six Strong Levels Five to seven traversed is a full down move, and we are at six. Not excited to trade this area, so keep your power dry. |
| 13:02 | Trade With Us Live Tomorrow Wait for the best entries and trade them together. Livestream starts fifteen minutes before the open. |
MES MICROS TRADE PLAN
A Level 10 Week Deserving Of War Discipline
Posted: Monday September 14, 2026
Briefing 853 lands on a heavy calendar. Contract rollover happens tonight, so tonight's ES futures morning briefing and Battle Plan move to the new contract and may post a little late. We gapped down 50 points into what George calls a Level 10 week… the day before FOMC, then FOMC, then the day before OPEX, then OPEX. The whole session is one lesson stacked on another: respect the week, mark your gap bounce levels, name your Bull Bear Line before the open, and count your strong levels so you know when a down move has done its work. Clean, clear trades only.
CONTRACT ROLLOVER AND A LEVEL 10 WEEK
Two things frame everything today. First, contract rollover. Starting tonight we trade the new contract, so tonight's nightly ES plan gets written on the new contract and may run late while George handles the roll. Second, the calendar is loaded.
Here is the runway George laid out:
- Tomorrow: the day before FOMC.
- Then FOMC: the rate decision itself.
- Then the day before OPEX, and then OPEX.
On the Fed watch, George noted the odds of a rate hike sitting around 86.5%. Put it together and it is a Level 10 week… the highest respect setting on the dial. There is no other way to look at it.
Trader Lesson 1
A Level 10 week deserves war discipline. You do not have to get in early and you do not have to try every day… there will be plenty of opportunity. Clean, clear trades only. Do not force trades and do not drop down in time frames.
BATTLE PLAN BASICS: THE MONDAY REFRESHER
George runs this every Monday so nobody trades the plan blind. The Battle Plan is the nightly ES trade plan… the zigzag lines you see are the actual Battle Plan trades. Each little elbow marks where he thinks an entry would exist, and the number sits where he thinks the best trade of that setup probably lives.
- Battle Plan: updated every night. The tiered trades, BP1 and up.
- Strong Levels: updated every Sunday. The most important levels on the chart. Battle Plan trades tend to surround these Strong Levels.
- Together: the two combined are the plan. If price drops into the Battle Plan area, you take the entry that most aligns with what you think will happen, then look for price to hit the next Strong Level.
From there you take profits and hold a little lotto runner just in case price keeps going. Sometimes a runner is a scout for 5, 10, 15 points. Sometimes you catch the amazing one… last week gave a 90 point runner. Want to learn the mechanics? The free Battle Plan Boot Camp is at microstrader.com.
THE 50 POINT GAP DOWN AND YOUR BOUNCE LEVELS
We gapped down 50 points, the biggest gap in a little while. George flagged the risk plainly: he pulled a lot of runner into the weekend, and anything can happen over two days. High risk on whatever you hold through the weekend. That is the trade-off of carrying size into a Friday close.
After a gap that big, three levels earn a spot on your chart. Price respects them through the week, especially when the gap is large:
- Sunday's opening: where the new week opened.
- Friday's close: the prior week's settle.
- 50% of the new week opening gap: the midpoint between the two.
These are bounce levels. Today price came into the 50% level, pushed down, gave a baby bounce, lost the level, handed back a gift of breakeven, and then continued its journey. On the same gap down, NQ took out last week's low… ES did not go quite that far and started reclaiming.
Trader Lesson 2
After a big gap down, mark Sunday's open, Friday's close, and 50% of the new week opening gap. Those are your bounce levels. Know where they sit before you take an entry, so a bounce and a loss of level do not surprise you.
WALKING BATTLE PLANS 1 THROUGH 4
George mapped Friday night as if it would be a normal opening… he has no other choice, since he cannot know the gap in advance. Here is how the tiers read.
Battle Plan 1 called a minor pullback to the Bull Bear Line, reclaiming the Strong Levels above. The note carried the real tell: if the bulls are real, that should be as low as we go. That is why he made it the Bull Bear Line. Below it, be careful.
Battle Plan 2 dropped into the drop zone, looking for price to get above and then offer a long. George was less eager here than on BP1. Still a trade, but a small target… a scalper's trade, not a big reaction.
Battle Plan 3 asked the question directly: can the bulls defend this Strong Level again? The biggest level last week was 7590, and BP3 sat on it. Lose that Strong Level and George wants price down to Battle Plan 4, which is further away. He said it flat… if we lose that, he does not think the bulls are real here, and he would much prefer to trade BP4 live together.
Trader Lesson 3
Name your Bull Bear Line before the open and give it a job. If the bulls are real, that line is as low as price should go. Below it, you have your answer… a rally that cannot hold the line is a short covering rally, not real demand.
COUNT YOUR STRONG LEVELS, THEN KEEP YOUR POWER DRY
By late morning George counted the ground covered: three Battle Plan trades traversed and six Strong Levels traversed. That number matters. Typically 5 to 7 Strong Levels is as much of a down move as you get. Sitting at six means the move has done most of its usual work.
He was honest about the tape… not excited to trade this area, with a real divergence on the chart. Are we all on the same train? No. He flagged that a loss of VAL and a bigger move down there could get interesting, but that is a watch, not a trade. There is a fresh Overnight Low to play with.
Trader Lesson 4
Count your Strong Levels. Five to seven traversed is usually a full down move, so chasing more downside from there is late. Keep your power dry and wait for the best entries instead of forcing a tired move.
"Let's keep our power dry. Let's wait for the best entries. Let's trade that together, because together we do trade better."
COMMON QUESTIONS FOR ES FUTURES TRADERS
What is contract rollover in ES futures?
A: Rollover is the scheduled transition from one quarterly futures contract to the next. On rollover night the nightly ES plan gets written on the new contract, so the Battle Plan may post a little later than usual while the roll is handled. Make sure your chart and levels are on the new contract before you trade it.
Why is this called a Level 10 week?
A: Level 10 is the highest respect setting for the calendar. This week stacks the day before FOMC, the FOMC decision itself, the day before OPEX, and OPEX. Big, news-driven events raise the odds of sharp, whippy moves, so the plan is clean, clear trades only… no forcing, no dropping time frames.
What is the Bull Bear Line?
A: It is the level that divides bullish from bearish behavior. In today's plan it marked how low price should go if the bulls are truly in control. Reclaiming the Strong Levels above it keeps the bull case alive… losing it says the rally was likely short covering rather than real demand.
What are the bounce levels after a big gap down?
A: After a large gap, three levels tend to get respected through the week: Sunday's opening, Friday's close, and 50% of the new week opening gap. Price often reacts at these, so they act as bounce levels. Today price bounced at the 50% level, lost it, and continued lower.
What is a short covering rally?
A: It is a move higher driven by shorts buying back to close positions rather than by fresh buyers stepping in. It can look like real strength, but it fades once the covering is done. A rally that cannot hold the Bull Bear Line is a classic tell that the bulls were not real.
How does the Battle Plan work with Strong Levels?
A: The Battle Plan is updated nightly and holds the tiered trades, BP1 and up. Strong Levels are updated every Sunday and mark the most important prices. When price drops into the Battle Plan area you take the entry that fits your read, then target the next Strong Level and hold a small runner.
How many Strong Levels usually make up a down move?
A: Typically 5 to 7 Strong Levels traversed is as much of a down move as you get. Once price has covered six of them, most of the usual downside is spent. That is a signal to keep your power dry rather than chase fresh shorts into a tired move.
What is a lotto runner and how do you manage it?
A: A lotto runner is a small piece of a position you hold after taking profits, in case price keeps going. Most of the time it scouts for 5, 10, or 15 points. Once in a while it catches the big one… last week a runner carried 90 points. Just know the weekend risk of holding one through a Friday close.
Why wait for the best entries instead of trading every setup?
A: On a Level 10 week the reward for patience is high and the punishment for forcing is worse. Clean, clear trades protect both your capital and your mindset. There will be plenty of opportunity, so you keep your power dry and let the mapped levels come to you.
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