AM Briefing #857 · When The Move Has Already Happened, Hold Your Runner
AM BRIEFING
ES CHART | KEY LEVELS | SETUPS
ES Technical Analysis — AM Briefing 857 Timeline
Friday September 18, 2026
| TIME | CHAPTER |
|---|---|
| 0:00 | Welcome ES MES Futures Traders |
| 0:44 | Level 10 No-Trade Day George calls today a level 10 no-trade day and a trap-the-trader session. All price action is instructional. |
| 1:45 | Tip: Personal Transformation Statement Write your personal transformation statement daily in your journal. I am a patient MES futures trader. |
| 2:39 | Name Your Temptation, Keep It Positive Identify your temptation of choice, over-leveraging or dropping time frames, and flip it into a positive identity. |
| 3:24 | Week Review: The Move Back Up The strong move down came first, then the run back up that pays. George fumbled a runner by adding too early. |
| 3:57 | Battle Plan Scorecard Battle Plan 1 ran 95 points, Battle Plan 6 springboarded 150, Battle Plan 4 gave a 40-point long Wednesday. |
| 4:52 | The Trade Already Happened The move and the trade have already happened. This is a quintessential hold your lotto runner day, not a trade day. |
| 5:42 | Up, Up And Away: No Edge No high probability trades. Can't chase long, shorting is not prudent, so George does neither. |
| 5:59 | Bull Bear Line Reclaim Push into Strong Levels, reclaim above, attack the Bull Bear Line. First long made nothing, then price held to the line and bounced off the range top. |
| 6:47 | Range Re-Tap And The Night-Before Plan Price re-taps the top of a range and continues. A deeper pullback did not matter because the plan was mapped the night before. |
| 7:35 | OPEX Friday And The Dow Drag Dow makes lower lows on an inside day. On OPEX Friday a drift back into the week's range would be no shock. No sellers above the line. |
| 8:19 | Stand Down And Green Week Not trading today is the right decision. George closes a green week and returns live 15 minutes before the open. |
MES MICROS TRADE PLAN
When The Move Has Already Happened, Hold Your Runner
Posted: Friday September 18, 2026
Today is a level 10 no-trade day, and George called it flat out before the bell. The whole week pointed at one thing… reclaim the Bull Bear Line. Price finally did it, springboarding off Battle Plan 6 for a 150 point run while Battle Plan 1 handed out 95 points. Now ES is up, up and away with nothing high probability left to trade. When the move has already happened, the trade has already happened… you hold your lotto runner and you Stand Down.
THE MOVE ALREADY HAPPENED
This is the heart of the whole session. The strong move down came first. Then the move back up… and that is the one that pays. George watched price push down into his Strong Levels, get back above, and come back to attack the Bull Bear Line. That was the singular goal all week and it landed.
Whenever George sees a strong move down, he is never upset about missing it. Could care less. Because the move back UP is what builds accounts and can change your life. This week delivered it.
- Battle Plan 6: Springboarded off the mapped level for a 150 point run. If you were holding the lotto runner, you did right, you did great.
- Battle Plan 1: Went 95 points in your favor. Not bad for something that costs $50 a month.
- Battle Plan 4: A beautiful 40 point long on Wednesday.
Every week you get one or two Battle Plan trades that go 100+ points. The goal is to be in every single one of them. Once the run is done, there is nothing to do but hold.
Trader Lesson 1
Never mourn the strong move down you missed. The move back UP is what pays… that is what builds accounts and it is what you plan for.
WHY TODAY IS A NO-TRADE DAY
George put a number on it… a level 10 no-trade day. Price is up, up and away. There are no high probability trades here. He can't chase long up at these prices, and shorting a market with no sellers is not prudent either. So he does neither.
Sitting out is not sitting still. It is a decision. When you can't chase and you can't short, the correct trade is to Stand Down and protect the green week you already have. If you are not trading today, congratulations… you are making the right decision.
Trader Lesson 2
When the move has already happened, the trade has already happened. Hold your lotto runner and Stand Down… don't chase a market that is up, up and away.
HOW THE BULL BEAR LINE RECLAIM PLAYED OUT
The path to the reclaim was not a straight line, and that is exactly why the night-before plan mattered. Price pushed down into the Strong Levels, got back above, then came back to attack the Bull Bear Line. The first long off that structure made literally nothing, and that was the end of the morning… just not worth trading.
Then price got back up and over. If you took that entry and held, you finally made it to the Bull Bear Line. It couldn't take out the Initial Balance high, came back in, and then bounced beautifully off the top of the range.
- Range re-tap: You often see price break out of a range, re-tap the top of it, and continue its journey. That re-tap is a feature, not a warning.
- Bigger pullback: The pullback ran deeper than George expected. It did not matter, because the plan was mapped the night before and he knew where he wanted to go long.
- Dow divergence: The Dow is still making lower lows and printed an inside day after a huge Fed Day, dragging on the whole complex.
Trader Lesson 3
Map your levels the night before. A bigger than expected pullback only scares the trader who has no plan… the prepared trader already knows where to go long.
TIP OF THE DAY: YOUR PERSONAL TRANSFORMATION STATEMENT
Becoming the trader you were meant to be. That is the project. George's weekend homework, for members and non-members alike, is to work on your personal transformation statement… and write it every day in your journal. Literally type it out or handwrite it.
His own reads: "I am a patient MES futures trader." Two rules make it work.
- Keep it positive. Don't write "I am a patient trader who doesn't get stupid." The mind grabs the negative. State who you ARE, in the positive.
- Name your temptation of choice, then flip it. Is it over-leveraging? Is it dropping down in time frames to justify trading the closer board? Whatever your temptation is, fold the opposite of it into your statement as a positive identity.
All price action is instructional. A quiet Friday like this one is a gift of time to build the trader, not just chase the trade.
Trader Lesson 4
Write your personal transformation statement every day, in the positive. Name your temptation of choice… over-leveraging, dropping time frames… and flip it into who you are becoming.
"The move has already happened. The trade has already happened. This is a quintessential hold your lotto runner."
COMMON QUESTIONS FOR ES FUTURES TRADERS
What is a lotto runner and why hold it instead of taking profit?
A: A lotto runner is a small, speculative piece of a winning position that you let ride far beyond your normal target. You hold it because the big money in ES futures is made on the extended move back up after a strong flush. This week a runner off Battle Plan 6 went 150 points. You risk very little to stay in a life-changing move.
What does "a level 10 no-trade day" mean?
A: It is George's conviction scale that today offers no high probability setups. Price is up, up and away, so you cannot chase long, and shorting a market with no sellers is not prudent. When both directions are bad, the right trade is no trade… you Stand Down.
What is the Bull Bear Line?
A: The Bull Bear Line is the key level that divides bullish control from bearish control. Reclaiming it was the singular goal all week, and price finally did it. Above the line with no sellers, bulls hold control. Below it, the tone flips bearish.
Why not just chase the market higher when there are no sellers?
A: No sellers tells you the trend is intact, but it does not give you a high probability entry. Chasing price that is already extended means buying the top of a move with poor reward relative to risk. The disciplined play is to hold what you already have and wait for a mapped level to come to you.
What is a personal transformation statement?
A: It is a short, positive identity statement you write in your journal every day to become the trader you were meant to be. George's is "I am a patient MES futures trader." You keep it positive and you build it around flipping your biggest temptation into a strength.
How do I write mine correctly?
A: State who you ARE in the positive, never who you are trying to stop being. Skip phrasing like "I don't get stupid," because the mind fixates on the negative word. Identify your temptation of choice, such as over-leveraging or dropping down in time frames, and write the opposite as your new identity.
Why does OPEX Friday matter for the ES trade plan?
A: OPEX is options expiration, and it can pin or pull price toward heavy strike levels. On this OPEX Friday it would be no shock to drift back into the range price has held all week, especially with the Dow lagging on lower lows. It is another reason to trade lighter, not harder.
What is the Battle Plan and how did it perform this week?
A: The Battle Plan is the nightly ES trade plan with tiered levels published before the session. This week Battle Plan 4 gave a 40 point long on Wednesday, Battle Plan 1 ran 95 points, and Battle Plan 6 springboarded for 150 points. Having levels mapped the night before is what let traders sit calmly through a deeper than expected pullback.
Why is a quiet, no-trade day still worth showing up for?
A: Because all price action is instructional. A flat Friday is the time to journal, write your transformation statement, and study how the week's reclaim played out. You build the trader on the slow days so you are ready on the days that pay.
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