AM Briefing #858 — Never Short A Short Covering Rally
AM BRIEFING
ES CHART | KEY LEVELS | SETUPS
ES Technical Analysis — AM Briefing 858 Timeline
Monday September 21, 2026
| TIME | CHAPTER |
|---|---|
| 0:00 | Welcome ES MES Futures Traders |
| 0:26 | Opening and Weekly Scripture Good morning and the week's scripture, Proverbs 27:23-24. Tend your account daily because riches are not forever. |
| 1:02 | Light News, Live Risk News drivers are light but roughly ten FOMC speakers are lined up. Oil and the Iran headlines can still bring unplanned volatility. |
| 1:30 | Battle Plan Basics How the squiggly Battle Plan trades and horizontal Strong Levels work together. Take profit before the next Strong Level and hold a lotto runner. |
| 2:48 | Update Your Indicators Strong Levels should read the Sunday date like 9.20 and the Battle Plan should read Sunday, Monday. Wrong dates mean last week's plan. |
| 3:45 | Battle Plan Homework Simulator The member replay tool keeps the week's best Battle Plans alive after they roll off the chart. Replay any day and see ES and MES results. |
| 5:40 | Trade of the Week: FOMC Wednesday Long, short, then the Battle Plan 6 long. After big short covering you get sideways action, the place to hold a lotto runner. |
| 6:51 | Add to Winners, Never Losers The optimal add is on a continuation when already long from below. Only ever adding to winners can change your trading life. |
| 7:19 | Friday Price Action Masterclass The public livestream called shorts, booked partials, and kept the stop above the Strong Level until target printed. |
| 8:13 | Cam's Core Strategy Long A full member shared his Core Strategy long with partials and a final take profit. The tape gave a short and a long the same day. |
| 8:41 | Membership and Channel Options Like, share, subscribe. Full membership plus a fifty dollar YouTube channel membership for a delayed Zoom view. |
| 9:10 | Where We Are Now: Breakouts and Ranges Two trades got long, then price busted last week's Bull Bear Line. Trade the range inside balance, hold a runner when FOMC colors outside the lines. |
| 10:36 | Long Toward 7796, No Chasing Price targets the expected range near 7796. George will not chase the long and will not fight the strength with a short. |
| 10:50 | No Battle Plan Trades Means Stand Down With no high probability setups up here we Stand Down and play only Core Strategy live, 15 minutes before the open. |
| 11:22 | VWAP Strength and Free Stream Tomorrow Upward slanting VWAPs show strength and busting the Bull Bear Line brings more short covering. Tomorrow's livestream is free for everybody. |
MES MICROS TRADE PLAN
Never Short A Short Covering Rally
Posted: Monday September 21, 2026
News drivers are light this week, but roughly ten FOMC speakers are lined up… so anything is possible. Last week's FOMC session busted through the Bull Bear Line and lit a short covering rally that has price stretching toward the 7796 expected range. This morning's ES futures morning briefing is about discipline over action: you add to winners and never to losers, you hold a lotto runner when a breakout runs your way, and you refuse to chase strength or fade it. There are no Battle Plan trades mapped up here… and no Battle Plan trades means no high probability trades. So we Stand Down and play Core Strategy live.
THE WEEK AHEAD: LIGHT NEWS, LIVE RISK
This week's scripture set the tone… Proverbs 27:23-24. Be diligent to know the state of your flocks and attend to your herds. The riches are not forever, nor does a crown endure. The market lesson underneath it is simple. Tend your account daily. Nothing is permanent.
The economic calendar is thin, but thin does not mean safe. About ten FOMC speakers are scheduled, and outside forces are live.
- FOMC speakers: Roughly ten on the docket. Any one of them can move the tape with an off-script comment.
- Oil and geopolitics: The Iran headlines and oil keep an unplanned volatility risk on the board.
- Nothing pre-planned: A quiet calendar can still deliver a fast session brought on by outside forces. Stay awake to it.
BATTLE PLAN BASICS: SQUIGGLY LINES AND STRONG LEVELS
Every week starts with the same foundation, because the foundation is what keeps you out of trouble. The Battle Plan is built from two pieces working together.
- Battle Plan trades: The squiggly lines. These mark where George expects to go short if price gets up to a level, and where he expects to go long if price gets down to a level. Each one carries notes explaining the trade.
- Strong Levels: The horizontal lines from the TradingView indicator members receive. These are the levels George believes will matter most all week. The Battle Plan trades are designed around them, in addition to key highs, lows, and profile levels.
Combined, that is your Battle Plan. Then you wait for price to drop into your entries. You know where you want to get out, you take profit into contracts before the next Strong Level, and you hold a lotto runner in case it runs. Sometimes it runs, runs, runs. Sometimes it does not… and you still booked a clean profit for trading the right setup in the right location.
Trader Lesson 1
Take profit into contracts before the next Strong Level, then hold a lotto runner in case it runs. You get paid for the plan whether or not the runner pays extra.
UPDATE YOUR INDICATORS AND USE THE HOMEWORK SIMULATOR
New members lose trades to a setting, not a level. Before you trade, make sure your indicators are current. Every Battle Plan tells you what the dates should read.
- Strong Levels indicator: Should show the Sunday date at the start of the week. For the week of September 20, it reads 9.20.
- Battle Plan indicator: The squiggly lines should read Sunday, Monday. If it says Wednesday, Thursday on a Monday, you are looking at last week's Battle Plan. Update it.
Then there is the Battle Plan homework. Even on the trial you get access to the Battle Plan numbers. Battle Plan members get the Battle Plan replay. Full members also get the end-of-day charts showing where all the longs and shorts were, plus the full simulator.
The simulator is a member benefit worth using every weekend. The indicator refreshes each day, so the best trades roll off your live chart… but they live on inside the simulator. You can go back and replay Monday's Battle Plans, Tuesday's, Wednesday's, and manage them again as practice. George replayed Battle Plan 1 as a continuation long and rode it up above the Bull Bear Line, and the tool shows exactly what you would have made on ES and MES.
TRADE OF THE WEEK: FOMC WEDNESDAY AND THE LOTTO RUNNER
The most important trades last week landed on Wednesday. It was FOMC. We had a long, then a short, then the beautiful Battle Plan 6 long, all traded live in the group and on YouTube. That Battle Plan 6 long was the one replayed in the simulator, and if you held a lotto runner you got paid well.
Here is the pattern to remember. Once there is a big short covering move, what do you typically get next? Sideways action. That is the quintessential place to hold your lotto runner if you managed to get long. And if a fast, margin-heavy session forced you to exit the runner, that is not the end of the trade.
Trader Lesson 2
If you had to exit a winner for margin, you can simply re-enter. You built in profit already, so you can absorb a pullback and continue the ride. No loss, no big deal.
Then there is the discipline that changes trading lives. Where is the optimal place to add? To your winner, on a continuation, when you are already long from below. Never to a loser.
Trader Lesson 3
Add to winning trades, never to losers. Imagine only ever adding to a winner. Think about how that one rule could change your entire trading life.
FRIDAY: A MASTERCLASS IN PRICE ACTION
Friday's livestream was public on YouTube and it was a masterclass in price action. The system called shorts, we took partials, and we held a line just in case we reached target. The target finally printed, even outside the live training window.
- The short: Two shorts called at the level. Partials booked into the move. Stop kept above the Strong Level the whole time.
- Cam's Core Strategy long: A full member shared his Core Strategy long, partials on the way up, and a final take profit at the top. Gorgeous work.
The same tape gave the system a short into target and Core Strategy a long off the low. Two clean, opposite trades on one day. That is what a mapped board looks like.
Trader Lesson 4
Keep your stop above the Strong Level on a short. The Strong Level is your line of defense, and it tells you the moment the idea is wrong.
WHERE WE ARE NOW: STRENGTH, AND WHY WE STAND DOWN
Two trades got us long, and from there price busted through last week's Bull Bear Line. That level was last week's line, it is not this week's line. Price failed to break down, the session pushed back in, tested the top of the range, and we got short there in case it dropped right back in. It made target, then reclaimed the range and continued its journey higher.
How do you trade a breakout? Inside an established range you trade the range. But this was FOMC, and FOMC colors outside the lines. You want to be long in the green area and hold a lotto runner in case it breaks your direction. When it broke, holding paid.
Right now price is still long, targeting the expected range up near 7796. George has no interest in chasing this long, and no interest in fighting the strength of this move with a short. The VWAPs are upward slanting with amazing distance from price… strength, strength, strength. When we bust through the Bull Bear Line, another short covering rally follows.
Trader Lesson 5
No Battle Plan trades means no high probability trades. When the board is empty up here, you Stand Down and play only Core Strategy live, 15 minutes before the open.
"You never short a short covering rally, in my humble opinion. No thank you, no thank you, no thank you."
COMMON QUESTIONS FOR ES FUTURES TRADERS
What is a short covering rally and why should you never short it?
A: A short covering rally is the sharp move higher that happens when trapped shorts are forced to buy back their positions, adding fuel to an upward push. Shorting into it means fighting a wave of forced buyers plus real strength. In this ES futures morning briefing George refuses to short it and refuses to chase it… he simply steps aside.
What is the Bull Bear Line in the Battle Plan?
A: The Bull Bear Line is the key level that divides bullish control from bearish control. It is set fresh each week, so last week's line is not this week's line. When price busts through it, George expects follow-through, often another round of short covering.
What are Strong Levels and how do you use them?
A: Strong Levels are the horizontal lines from the members' TradingView indicator that mark the most important prices for the week. Battle Plan trades are built around them, and on a short you keep your stop above the Strong Level so you know instantly when the trade is wrong.
What is a lotto runner and when do you hold one?
A: A lotto runner is a small speculative piece of your position held after you book profit, kept on in case the move runs far. You hold it when a breakout is going your direction, especially after a big short covering move that tends to be followed by sideways action.
Should you add to a losing trade to lower your average?
A: No. George's rule is to add only to winning trades, never to losers. The optimal add is on a continuation when you are already long from below. Adding to winners and refusing to add to losers is one of the fastest ways to change your results.
What do you do if you have to exit a winner for margin reasons?
A: You can simply re-enter. Because you already have built-in profit from the earlier entry, you can absorb a pullback and continue the trade with no loss. Exiting for margin does not have to end the ride.
Why are there no Battle Plan trades some mornings?
A: If there are no Battle Plan trades on the chart, it is because George does not see high probability setups there. That is a signal to Stand Down rather than force a trade. On those mornings the only thing traded live is Core Strategy.
How do I make sure my Battle Plan indicators are current?
A: Check the dates. The Strong Levels indicator should show the Sunday date of the week, such as 9.20 for the week of September 20. The Battle Plan indicator should read Sunday, Monday. If it shows later weekday dates, you are on last week's plan and need to update.
What is the Battle Plan homework simulator?
A: It is a member replay tool. Because the live indicator refreshes daily, the week's best Battle Plan trades roll off your chart, but they live on inside the simulator. You can go back to any day, replay the Battle Plans, manage them as practice, and see what you would have made on ES and MES.
LIVE
SESSIONS
📅 Upcoming This Week
Hit the bell — every AM Briefing and live trading session this week is already scheduled on YouTube:
- Tuesday, Tue Sep 22: AM Briefing · Live Stream
- Wednesday, Wed Sep 23: AM Briefing · Live Stream
- Thursday, Thu Sep 24: AM Briefing · Live Stream
- Friday, Fri Sep 25: AM Briefing · Live Stream
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