AM Briefing #862 · Never Let A Trend Day Hurt You
AM BRIEFING
ES CHART | KEY LEVELS | SETUPS
ES Technical Analysis — AM Briefing 862 Timeline
Friday September 25, 2026
| TIME | CHAPTER |
|---|---|
| 0:00 | Welcome ES MES Futures Traders |
| 0:44 | Weekly Scripture & Stewardship Tend your flocks and attend your herds. Be a good steward of the time, talent and resources you have been given so they can grow. |
| 1:30 | Friday Rules & Next Week's Calendar Friday rules in effect and the live Zoom link is unlocked. Next week brings JOLTS, PCE, GDP and non-farm payroll… volatility inbound. |
| 2:05 | Tip Of The Day: No Knife Catching |
| 2:37 | Never Let A Trend Day Hurt You The week's second theme. Trend days crush counter-traders who keep calling tops and bottoms. Do not be first long or first short. |
| 3:01 | Free Battle Plan On YouTube |
| 3:40 | Weekly Trade Review Begins Strong Levels are the most important levels for the week. Last Wednesday's Battle Plan long paid right at the expected range. |
| 4:47 | Partials, Strong Levels & Runners Take partials before the next Strong Level with a balance area in front. The lotto runner did not always work… they do not all run 100 points. |
| 6:04 | London Long & Managing Laksby's Short A London long, profits taken, and a speculative short. The room spent the Zoom helping Laksby manage her short as well as possible. |
| 6:48 | Monday & Tuesday Trades Monday night mapping, a short with a single runner. Tuesday delivered a 19 point Core Strategy trade and a London short… |
| 8:01 | Thursday Mapping & Ghost Entry Gorgeous mapping, a speculator special short, a Core Strategy long, and an unmapped ghost entry with strong follow through. |
| 8:58 | Deleverage A Runner ES To MES Hold a runner longer with less risk. Drop from ES to MES, keep the stop at your initial entry. That trade is up 75 points now. |
| 9:15 | Weekly Analytics Panel |
| 10:50 | Four-Week Trailing Data Four weeks of data now averages about 300 points a week. Multiple ways to earn means multiple chances to hit your number. |
| 11:34 | Only Shorts Up Here The Battle Plan mapped only shorts in the zone, no longs. Are we doing longs here? No. That was the right play. |
| 12:14 | Current Structure: Laddering Back Up We are laddering back up from Battle Plan 3, already long or flat. On the RTH open we hunt Core Strategy only… no Battle Plan trades up here. |
| 12:47 | Dow & Nasdaq Laddering Down Dow is back inside last week's low. Nasdaq printed three days of lower lows and lower highs. RTH shows evidence of laddering down. |
| 13:45 | Sometimes No Trade Is The Trade Not wanting to be long does not mean you should short. Sometimes the trade is no trade at all. See traders 15 minutes before the open. |
MES MICROS TRADE PLAN
Never Let A Trend Day Hurt You
Posted: Friday September 25, 2026
This is a week-in-review AM Briefing, and the whole week carried two hard themes… no knife catching, and never let a trend day hurt you. This ES futures morning briefing walks the full week of Battle Plan mapping, the Strong Levels that held at every inflection, and why London and the overnight session paid while the Zoom room stayed light. We finished up 323 points across the three ways we earn… Core Strategy, Battle Plan, and Zoom. Right now ES is laddering back up from Battle Plan 3, the trade is already long or flat, and there is nothing to short up here. The lesson to carry into next week is patience… sometimes the trade is no trade at all.
TIP OF THE DAY: NO KNIFE CATCHING
Straight from last night's Battle Plan. When the market is vomiting down, you STAND ASIDE. You do not try to pick the bottom of a flush. You let price stabilize at a planned level first… and in this group that planned level is our Battle Plan locations and our Strong Levels, a spot that can actually hold.
You do not have to be the first one long on a holiday. And if you insist on being early, you have to be perfect with ruthlessness on your risk. That is the whole game. That is risk management. No knife catching, ever.
Trader Lesson 1
When the tape is vomiting down, stand aside… wait for price to stabilize at a planned level that can hold, and never be the trader catching the knife.
NEVER LET A TREND DAY HURT YOU
The second theme of the week. You do not have to be the first one long OR the first one short. Trend days crush the counter-trader… the one who keeps calling the top, calling the bottom, fighting the move. That is how a green week turns red on a single stubborn position.
This is why the mapping matters. When the Battle Plan says we only have shorts up in a zone and no longs, you respect it. This week we asked out loud, are we doing longs here? No. Really. And that was the right play. Shorts won this week, two beautiful ones, and we were not even hunting shorts… we were simply in the right place with the right plan.
Trader Lesson 2
You do not have to be first long or first short… a trend day punishes the counter-trader, so trade with the map, not against the move.
THE WEEK IN REVIEW: STRONG LEVELS HELD
Strong Levels are the most important levels for the week, and the whole review comes down to one question… how did they respond at the key inflection points? Beautiful. Every time. Here is how the week actually traded.
- Last Wednesday's Battle Plan long: if you held overnight and over the weekend, ideal profit landed exactly where the expected range lived. That is a clean place to take profit.
- The Battle Plan short: take partials before the next Strong Level. When you have a Strong Level and a beautiful balance area, that is the recommended spot to bank partials.
- Runners: we held a lot of runners just in case. The lotto runner did not work every time… one came back and got you out, and even a third contract in a negative spot would have exited. They do not all run 100 points.
- Same short, kept twice: unusual this week, we kept the exact same short mapping. The read was that a return to the Strong Level would vomit right through it, and that is one reason the short stayed on.
- The 100-pointer: if you played perfect chess and held the lotto runner, you had a 100 point quarter. It was beautiful.
A green trade that does not hit target is still a green trade. We looked for a long that did not reach target but still gave a nice entry… they do not all run, and that is fine.
WHERE THE POINTS LIVED: OVERNIGHT AND LONDON
End of week, so we pulled the analytics panel. Total for the week… 323 points across three ways we make money, the Core Strategy, the Battle Plan, and the Zoom. The trailing four weeks now average about 300 points a week.
The honest read on this week… most of the trades needed you in them during the overnight session. Trades activated one in Asia (that was the 100 pointer), some in RTH, and London was the big winner. That is the beauty of ES futures… it trades 23 hours, so you have multiple windows and multiple ways to earn the points you need.
| Source | How It Ran This Week |
|---|---|
| Battle Plan | Crushed it… the workhorse of the week. |
| Zoom (Live Room) | Light, basically nothing… not much to do, roughly 20 points on a managed short. |
| Core Strategy | Few levels… level development was difficult, the overnight session is where it lived. |
MANAGING RUNNERS: DELEVERAGE ES TO MES
Yesterday's mapping was gorgeous. There was the speculator special short we managed, a beautiful Core Strategy long, and a ghost entry we did not map the Battle Plan to… no promise of an entry there, but the follow through was really nice for anyone who watched it.
The runner lesson is the one to keep. If you held a single lotto runner on ES contracts, here is how to manage it… deleverage. Drop from ES to MES so the size is smaller, keep the stop at your initial entry so it has to hold again, and let it work. Managed that way, you are up 75 points on that trade now. Same idea we used all week… take your profits, keep a small runner, and never let the runner put the week at risk.
Trader Lesson 3
To hold a runner longer with less risk, deleverage from ES to MES and keep the stop at your initial entry… smaller size, same upside, protected week.
WHERE WE STAND NOW… AND NEXT WEEK
Zoom out. We are laddering back up from Battle Plan 3, and the trade is already long or flat. When we open the RTH session we look for Core Strategy trades only… there are NO Battle Plan trades mapped up here. None.
I am not interested in shorting. To me the shorts already had their move. That does not mean we cannot go down… it just means the market has to give me a clear signature before I hunt a short up here. And on the higher time frame, watch the context… the Dow is back inside last week's low, and the Nasdaq has printed three days in a row of lower lows and lower highs. RTH shows evidence of laddering down. So I am not engaging longs here either.
Next week brings JOLTS, PCE, GDP, and non-farm payroll. Volatility inbound. Respect it.
Trader Lesson 4
Not wanting to be long does not mean you should be short… sometimes the trade is no trade at all, and sitting flat is a real decision.
"Sometimes the trade is no trade at all."
COMMON QUESTIONS FOR ES FUTURES TRADERS
What does no knife catching mean in futures trading?
A: No knife catching means you do not try to buy the bottom of a sharp downward flush. When the market is dropping hard, you stand aside and wait for price to stabilize at a planned level, like a Strong Level or a Battle Plan location that can actually hold, before you look for a long. Catching the falling knife is how counter-traders get run over.
Why do trend days crush counter-traders?
A: A trend day moves in one direction with clean structure and little pullback. A counter-trader keeps trying to call the top or bottom and fights the move, so each new entry against the trend adds to the loss. The fix is to trade with the mapped direction and refuse to be the first one long or short into strength.
What is a Strong Level in the MicrosTrader Battle Plan?
A: Strong Levels are the highest conviction levels for the week, the ones that matter most at key inflection points. They are the planned spots where price is most likely to hold or reject, so they double as the safe places to look for entries and the logical places to take partials.
When should I take partial profits on an ES futures trade?
A: A reliable rule is to take partials before the next Strong Level, especially when you also have a beautiful balance area in front of you. You bank real profit at the spot most likely to cause a stall or reversal, then let a smaller runner work toward the next target.
How do I manage a lotto runner without giving back profit?
A: Take your core profits first, then keep only a small runner. If that runner is on full ES contracts, deleverage by dropping to MES micros so the size is smaller, and move or keep your stop at your initial entry so the position has to hold again. That protects the week while still leaving upside if it runs.
What is the difference between ES and MES contracts?
A: ES is the E-mini S&P 500 futures contract and MES is the Micro E-mini, one tenth the size of the ES. Traders deleverage by switching a runner from ES to MES to keep the same idea on with far less dollar risk, which is a core part of position sizing for beginners.
Why does MicrosTrader trade the overnight and London sessions?
A: ES futures trade nearly 23 hours a day, so the best moves do not always happen in RTH. This week most of the trades activated overnight, with one in Asia and London as the big winner. Having Asia, London, and RTH windows gives you multiple chances to earn your points instead of forcing trades in one session.
What is the Three-Contract System?
A: It is MicrosTrader's core position sizing framework. You use multiple contracts so you can bank partials at planned levels, hold a middle piece toward the next target, and keep a final runner for a larger move, all while managing risk. It is what lets you take profits and still keep a lotto runner alive.
When is it right to not trade at all?
A: When the market has no mapped Battle Plan trades in the current zone and no clear signature for a move, sitting flat is the correct play. Not wanting to be long does not mean you should be short. Sometimes the trade is no trade at all, and that patience protects both your capital and your mindset.
What economic events should ES traders watch next week?
A: The calendar carries JOLTS, PCE, GDP, and non-farm payroll, which brings volatility inbound. Around high impact data you lean harder on planned levels, avoid knife catching into news driven flushes, and size down when uncertainty is high.
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📍 Originally published on MicrosTrader.com
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