ES & MES Futures Trade Plan #396
Battle Plan
Where To Go Long... Where To Go Short.
ES & MES FUTURES TRADE PLAN #396
TODAY'S REVIEW: ES FUTURES
Unadjusted ATH
Although I only provided a couple levels in the AM Briefing, I'm shocked we made it to the unadjusted all-time high today on Monday, blowing through the Expected Range like it wasn't even there.
Behold the power of holding lotto runners long!
How To Trade ES Emini: The Best Strategy is Longs Only or Mostly?
Yes, I believe so!
There's a very clear reason we focus, primarily, on longs.
Longs consistently pay better than shorts.
The weekly chart tells me so.
Thousands of hours of butt time on the ES chart reinforce it.
Probability demands it.
Last week, in one of the FOMC videos, I said the strong down moves are for adrenaline junkies. Traders who want to build their account focus on the longs. Sorry if that offends… but it's true.
Exhibit A… Battle Plan 6️⃣ from Wednesday. See the chart included below.
🔥 250+ Points from Battle Plan 6️⃣ we traded live on YouTube.
Each week we get one or two Battle Plan trades that go 100 points ... This time it's over 200.
And if you held overnight and sat on it through the weekend… you got a gorgeous, beautiful, amazing follow through. That's what longs do.
The ES chart never looks prettier than in a short squeeze.
You see.... in general, a good short typically runs five to seven Strong Levels. Then the short covering rally can run dozens of Strong Levels… and ladder and ladder and ladder. Yes, it can keep going. This is why I focus on longs and get in early on the short squeeze holding a lotto runner.
Sure... Shorts are fun. A few points here, a few points there. Adrenaline. Hit of dopamine.
But... Longs may be boring... but longs build accounts... Especially if you can master the art of holding a lotto runner and adding to your winning trades. I highly encourage you to watch this morning's AM Briefing when I discuss Battle Plan 6️⃣ and adding to your trade at Battle Plan 1️⃣ in the overnight session on Thursday. This might be a splendid chart to keep as easy reference.
Monday's Live Trading Room
I counted twenty times in this morning's live trading room that I warned… "Bulls control, shorts are counters, small if at all."
I added eight times, "There are no high probability trades here."
Six times I remarked, "There are no sellers."
"If you decide to short, do it small, be aggressive and expect it to be a break-even trade or a loser. There's an outside chance it turns into a great trade, but most likely it's break-even or a loser."
Here is an example from the transcript:
Strong Levels... Our ES Key Levels Were Simply Amazing Today
Look at the chart below.
Every one of these Strong Levels.. the Key Levels on ES... supported the move to the north.
"Not a Horrible Place to Consider a Positional Short"
In the live trading room, we discussed the orange high-time-frame trend line (see the chart below)… as not a 'horrible' place for a speculative positional short.
Additional reasons why: NQ was taking a HTF break level while YM was simply not participating in this aggressive up move.
Several reasons… still speculative… and reserved for the aggressive… who can take ONE COUNTER TRADE and BE DONE.
First, note the name… "Positional Short." It is not a Core Strategy entry… it's not taught in the Core Strategy Academy and it is not an official trade.
A positional short is a trade idea for the aggressive against a HTF trade location.
See the red rectangles on the chart. Those are the other times we discussed positional shorts… nestled right against this same trend line. Both were fantastic locations to consider a short, with monster paydays.
For everyone else, this HTF trend line is a GREAT place to peel contracts if you were long with multiple contracts. Always hold a runner because no one knows how far price is going to go. If you're gonna hold a runner, you hold it when long.
Then we discussed Wednesday of last week… the monster pullback right into Battle Plan 6️⃣ Long (as discussed above and in the AM Briefing). See the red circle on the chart below. That pullback is typically the slingshot that finally breaks a high-time-frame trend line. We broke it today.
The goal is to already be long as we come into the high-time-frame trend line.
That said, every time we're at a high-time-frame location where a positional short or a positional long makes sense, we will discuss it. It's prudent. It's my job. Your job is to decide whether that trade interests you… if it's part of your trade plan. If not, pass… but enjoy the conversation. Not every trade is your trade.
What's the key if you take a positional short? Never, ever make things worse. You must be perfect. If you're emotional, close the trade immediately, close your platform and walk. If your heart rate becomes elevated, close the trade and walk. If you experience shortness of breath or heart palpitations, close out the trade immediately and go to the ER… positional shorts are not for you.
If you never ever short ES ..., I think you are the better for it.
My MES Micro Short
Trade location decides everything for me… as stated multiple times on Zoom and in the Battle Plan.
And trade location here was clear. Against the HTF trend line, after a 200+ point move to the north, I could not initiate a new long.
We also said it… 8 times in fact… this is not a high probability trade location.
Be sure to read the first rectangle. There may not be another high probability trade for days.
However, this location COULD be an area for a "speculative" positional short... an extreme counter trade.
Could.
Speculative.
Extreme.
Counter.
In full disclosure for those not inside Zoom or YouTube... I took one short… one.
The 7813 Strong Level.
Small.
1 Micro.
Fortunately, price moved my direction several points.
Then, I moved my stop two ticks into profit to cover commissions.
I closed my platform as that was to be my final trade.
Price came back and took me out… Oh well! As expected.
🔥 That is my rule on a trend day north. One counter trade MAX. Period, end of story. A second short only on a clear reversal on the second or third ladder… see the Tip Of The Day below. I will never ever allow an up move to hurt me… EVER. Neither should you.
🔥 Calling tops is the hardest way to make money on ES. It pays the least and costs the most.
My personal goal is to hardly ever short ES. Shorts stay in the arsenal for now… but they are a rare trade for me, and getting rarer by the week. When I do take one, the rule is simple. Right, right away… or I'm right out.
Never Let a Trend Day Hurt You
On a day like today, many traders find the leaky hole in their boat.
And it is costly.
What is the ATH?
Since ES is a rollover contract, it can be surprisingly difficult to decipher exactly where the all-time high is.
Some traders use back-adjusted continuous contracts. Some don't. That means two ES charts can show two different all-time highs.
The clean baseline is the cash market… SPX. SPY can also give you an easy reference.
The ES contract gets confusing!
On the ES continuous contract, the non-adjusted all-time high was taken today. The back-adjusted all-time high was still 72 points away. ES continuous chart below.
And the Z contract all-time high is 7904 on the Daily Chart.
Different charts, different numbers. It can be confusing for sure.
The Shortcut: If you're trying to determine whether the S&P 500 itself has made a new all-time high, look at SPX. That's the cash index and the cleanest source of truth.
Tip of the Day
You Don't Need The Short:
In a strong uptrend, you don't get paid for proving you can call the top.
Your job isn't to catch the fast-money short... Your job is to wait for the next high-probability trade.
And if you do take a stab at a short... small if at all. Be absolutely perfect. Be ruthless with your risk management. Keep the powder dry to trade another day.
Tomorrow's Live Streams
|
AM Briefing 
|
YouTube Live Stream (Free on Tuesdays) 
|
Scoreboard
Points Accumulated This Week:
Battle Plan: 0
NADA Today.
As stated in Sunday's Battle Plan, there are no high probability trades.
Zoom: 0
No official trades called.
Core Strategy: 0 (For Full Members)
🔥 For full members, go look at how many back sides were created in today's price action.
Don't forget. Break levels. Tell the story.
ECONOMIC CALENDAR
TUESDAY
WEDNESDAY
TOMORROW’S ES KEY LEVELS AND TRADE IDEAS
Tonight’s Battle Plan maps the ES key levels for tomorrow’s session… the bounce zones and the trade ideas that go with them. Members read the full plan below.
View The Trade Setups
COMMON QUESTIONS FOR ES FUTURES TRADERS
What is a Strong Level on ES futures?
A: A Strong Level is a key price on the ES chart where price has a history of reacting. Think of it as a rung on a ladder. Price tends to pause, bounce, or accelerate at these spots. In this Battle Plan, every Strong Level supported the move north on Monday... and the 7813 Strong Level was the one location George used for his single small short. You use Strong Levels to plan entries, peel contracts, and set targets. They are the map. Price action is the confirmation.
What does "Bulls control. Shorts are counter. Small, if at all." mean?
A: It is the rule for a trend day north. Buyers are in charge, so longs are the trade with the edge. Any short is a counter trade... you are fighting the direction of the day. If you take one, go small... one micro is plenty... and be ready to accept a break-even or a small loss. George said it twenty times in Monday's live trading room. On a trend day north the rule is one counter trade max. Period, end of story. Never let an up move hurt you.
What is a Positional Short?
A: A Positional Short is a speculative trade idea for aggressive traders only. It is a short taken against a high-time-frame trade location, such as the orange trend line on Monday's chart. It is not a Core Strategy entry. It is not taught in the Core Strategy Academy. It is not an official trade. The rules are strict... one counter trade and be done, ruthless risk management, and if you get emotional, close the trade and walk. For everyone else, that same high-time-frame trend line is simply a great place to peel contracts if you are already long.
What is the Core Strategy?
A: The Core Strategy is the official Micros Trader method for trading ES and MES futures, taught in the Core Strategy Academy for full members. It is built around reading break levels and back sides... the structure price leaves behind as it moves. On Monday, George pointed full members to count how many back sides were created in the day's price action. Break levels tell the story. Core Strategy trades are scored separately on the weekly Scoreboard from Battle Plan and Zoom trades.
Why does the ES all-time high look different on different charts?
A: ES is a rollover contract, so charts can be built two ways. A back-adjusted continuous chart shifts old prices to smooth the roll. A non-adjusted chart does not. That means two ES charts can show two different all-time highs. On Monday, the non-adjusted continuous high was taken while the back-adjusted high was still 72 points away... and the Z contract high sits at 7904 on the daily. The shortcut is simple. If you want to know whether the S&P 500 itself made a new all-time high, look at SPX. The cash index is the cleanest source of truth.
MICROS TRADER BASICS
The Foundations Course
The Foundations Course is Micros Trader's free self-paced introduction to ES and MES futures trading. No credit card required. No membership needed. It covers the essential concepts every trader need before stepping into live markets... how futures work, the basics of price action, and how the Micros Trader system is structured.
Available at any time, at no cost, and completed at whatever pace works for the individual trader.
📍 Originally published on MicrosTrader.com
Free Training · No Signup Required
⚔️ Battle Plan Boot Camp
This Battle Plan you just read… there is a free simulator where you TRADE a real week of them. The actual published plans, the actual ES candles, George’s word-for-word notes… and Boot Camp Mode coaches you bar by bar. Runs in your browser.
LIVE
SESSIONS
Share This
Follow MicrosTrader
▶ YouTubeFacebook𝕏 TwitterMediumSubstack🎧 Apple Podcasts🎧 Spotify🎧 Amazon MusicLinkedIn
Field Dispatch · Free
Get the Free Weekly SITREP
Weekly field intel for ES and MES futures traders… plus one lesson from the free Trading Library every Sunday.
DISPATCHED SUNDAYS 11:00 CT · UNSUBSCRIBE ANYTIME
Comments
Post a Comment