Initial Balance Trading: The IB High/Low Statistics Every ES Trader Should Know
The first hour draws two lines on the chart. The data on what price does with them is uncanny… and tradeable.
From the free MicrosTrader Trading Library… 140 lessons mined from 1,042 live ES and MES futures sessions taught since 2018.
The Initial Balance is the first hour's range. It's the swing high and swing low ES E-mini futures carves out in the opening hour of the RTH session, 9:30 to 10:30 Eastern. That's it. The IB high and the IB low. Two lines, drawn by the market before most of the day's story is written.
Simple to draw. Loaded with edge. George has run the numbers on the first hour range for years and hands you the statistics straight… how often one side breaks, how often both break, which side breaks more, and how big the range tends to be. Know the odds and you stop guessing at the open.
“"The IB high and low is nothing more than the first hour high and low."”
— George, live session, Oct 29, 2022
From George’s published record: Micros Trade Plan #324 — a 20-point move, mapped in advance.
The Headline Number: One Side Breaks 96% of the Time
Start with the stat that matters most. On roughly 96% of trading days, price takes out either the IB high or the IB low. Only about 4% of days close without touching either extreme. That is your first read of the morning… price is almost certainly leaving the first-hour range before the bell.
George has restated this number across four years of live ES futures sessions, sometimes calling it 96%, sometimes 97 or 98. The takeaway holds either way. Price rarely sits still. Staying trapped inside the first-hour range all day happens on 2% of days or fewer.
“"96% of the cases it's going to take out one of them, and in four percent of the cases it takes out neither."”
— George, live session, Nov 16, 2022
George has taught this in 45+ recorded sessions… and every claim in the full lesson links to the recording it came from. The full lesson covers far more than fits here.
Read the full lesson free at MicrosTrader.com →
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140 Lessons From 1,042 Live Sessions
Trade Setups & Key Levels21 LESSONSTrade Execution14 LESSONSRisk Management18 LESSONSTrading Psychology20 LESSONSMarket Structure22 LESSONSPreparation & Routine14 LESSONSJournaling & Review9 LESSONSLearning & Community6 LESSONSFaith & Character8 LESSONSMoney & Stewardship5 LESSONS📍 Originally published on MicrosTrader.com
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