Shorting A Strong Trend Is One And Done | AM Briefing #859
AM BRIEFING
ES CHART | KEY LEVELS | SETUPS
ES Technical Analysis — AM Briefing 859 Timeline
Tuesday September 22, 2026
| TIME | CHAPTER |
|---|---|
| 0:00 | Welcome ES MES Futures Traders |
| 0:47 | This Week's Scripture Be diligent and know the state of your flocks. Riches are not forever, so watch that account balance. |
| 1:35 | Tip Of The Day: Shut Up, Suit Up, Show Up, Walk An 84 year old's secret to a happy life. Stop complaining, prepare, show up ready, then walk away when the work is done. |
| 2:35 | Battle Plan Buddy And Trade Buddy Update The indicators updated overnight. They populate automatically and deliver the Battle Plan notes better. |
| 2:53 | Trade Review: Perfect Chess And Member Wins The FOMC Perfect Chess trade ran Battle Plan 6 to Battle Plan 1 for 260 points. A trial member banked their first 78 points with a runner. |
| 3:32 | Overnight Short Into The Strong Level A clean short bounced off the Strong Level for a 25 point move. Take contracts off before the next Strong Level. |
| 4:31 | Runner Management: Hold The Single Three contracts on, two off around the 17 mark, one single runner held back in case price keeps going. |
| 5:07 | Bulls Control, Shorts Are Counter Small, if at all. Read last night's Battle Plan at microstrader.com for the full day map. |
| 5:24 | The Day That Hurts Short Sellers This is the type of day that punishes traders who only want to short. George breaks down his responsive short approach and aggressive risk. |
| 6:04 | Countering Strength Is One And Done Fade a strong trend and 90 to 95 percent of the time it is a scratch or a loss. One short, one counter trade, then stand down. |
| 7:08 | Russell And Nasdaq Take Out Prior Highs The whole board is stacked bullish, above previous day highs and pushing. Bulls still in control. |
| 8:01 | Mapped Short Played Out The short bounced right off the next Strong Level. With multiple contracts that level is where you bail for a 25 pointer. |
| 8:27 | Into The Open: Trade It Live Watching for a second look at Battle Plan 1. Join the live room 15 minutes before the market opens. |
MES MICROS TRADE PLAN
Shorting A Strong Trend Is One And Done
Posted: Tuesday September 22, 2026
Today the tape is telling you one thing… bulls control. That means shorts are counter, small if at all. The overnight session already gave us a clean look, a short into our Strong Level that bounced for a 25 point move, and it teaches the whole ES futures morning briefing in one picture. When price is trending strong, countering it is one and done and it has to be perfection. This briefing walks the prep routine that gets you ready, the runner discipline that keeps you in the game, and the exact way George thinks about shorting strength without blowing up your account.
SHUT UP, SUIT UP, SHOW UP, WALK
The tip of the day came from an 84 year old man asked for the secret to a happy, successful life. His answer? Shut up. Wake up in the morning and stop complaining. You are presented opportunities that people all over the world wish they had access to. There are folks who have it far worse.
George turned that into a trader's routine you can run every single day:
- Shut up: Stop complaining. Show up grateful for the opportunity in front of you.
- Suit up: Get prepared. Mark up your chart, read the Battle Plan, watch the AM Briefing… whatever suiting up means for you.
- Show up: Arrive at the open prepared, not scrambling.
- Walk: When the work is done, go for a nice walk and let it go.
Trader Lesson 1
Shut up, suit up, show up, walk. Trade the day you prepared for, then close the laptop and step away. Preparation and detachment are the whole job.
THE OVERNIGHT: A CLEAN SHORT INTO THE STRONG LEVEL
When George published last night's Battle Plan, price sat right where the map called it. Overnight gave you an opportunity for a possible short. He wanted one more pop higher toward the Strong Level, then a roll back in. He was in that short and went to sleep on it… one of the quiet advantages of trading a mapped plan.
As price came down into the Strong Level, where is the first place to start taking contracts off? Right before the next Strong Level. That produced a nice 25 point move. It did not tag the full expected range George was hoping for, but the plan paid. Price bounced off the Strong Level and pushed back up.
He showed the trade in Tradovate: three contracts on, two exited around the 17 mark, one single runner held back. The runner eventually came off too.
Trader Lesson 2
As you approach the next Strong Level with multiple contracts on, that is your first place to peel. Bank the 25 pointer. The Strong Level is where you get paid, not where you get greedy.
Trader Lesson 3
Always hold a single runner. Take your money off into the level, keep one contract on just in case price keeps going your direction. That runner costs you nothing and it catches the outlier days.
BULLS CONTROL. SHORTS ARE COUNTER. SMALL, IF AT ALL.
This is the read for the day and George said it plainly. Bulls control. Shorts are counter. Small, if at all. Yesterday he told the group this looked like the kind of day that hurts people who stare at the chart and all they want to do is short, short, short, short.
Look across the board and the story holds. The Russell rocketed above its previous day high and kept pushing. The Nasdaq took out its previous day high too. When the whole board is stacked bullish, fighting it is expensive.
So how does George handle a short when he takes one at all? Two clean ways:
- The responsive trade: Place an order where you think price is going to bounce, take the trade as price comes into it, and let it prove itself. It either bounces or it does not. Be very aggressive with your risk management.
- Never short a trending move at all. That is a fully valid choice, and often the smart one.
COUNTERING STRENGTH: THE MATH OF THE FADE
George was honest about the strong move overnight. He wished he had been holding a long runner into it, but he was coming into a high timeframe trendline and was hunting a reversal short instead. Here is the reality he wants you to carry.
If you are going to counter a strong trending move, it has to be perfect. With 90 to 95 percent certainty that counter trade is going to be a break even or a loser. The 5 percent outside chance is the actual reversal, and when it hits you can do really amazing. That is the trade off. You are paying a lot of small losses to be positioned for one big turn.
That is why the rule is one short, one counter trade, and you are done. You take your one aggressive shot at the fade with a tight stop. If it works, wonderful. If it does not, you stand down and stop feeding the trend your capital.
Trader Lesson 4
Countering a strong trend is one and done. You must be perfect, and 90 to 95 percent of the time it is a scratch or a loss. Take one aggressive shot with a tight stop, then Stand Down.
WINS ON THE BOARD AND WHAT'S NEXT
Two reminders of what the mapped plan can do. George revisited the "Perfect Chess" trade from last Wednesday's FOMC day, where the plan came in at Battle Plan 6 and worked all the way to Battle Plan 1 for 260 points off the upfront Battle Plan. And a Battle Plan trial member sent a private message: made their first 78 points with a runner from Friday. Congratulations to them.
Housekeeping: the Battle Plan Buddy and Trade Buddy indicators were updated last night. You do not have to do anything, they populate automatically, and the update improves how the Battle Plan notes get delivered.
Into the open, the question is whether we get a second look at Battle Plan 1 and whether the Nasdaq can push quicker toward its next mapped level for a round two on that fade. That will be settled live. George trades it with the room 15 minutes before the market opens.
"When the bulls control, what do I say? Bulls control, shorts are counter. Small, if at all."
COMMON QUESTIONS FOR ES FUTURES TRADERS
What does "bulls control, shorts are counter, small if at all" mean?
A: It is the day's bias in one line. Bulls are in control of the market, so any short trade is going against the dominant direction. If you take a short at all, keep the size small and treat it as a counter trade, not your main play. It keeps you aligned with the trend instead of fighting it.
Why is shorting a strong trend called "one and done"?
A: Because countering a strong move only works if you are perfect on the entry. Roughly 90 to 95 percent of the time that counter trade ends as a break even or a loss. You take one aggressive shot at the fade with a tight stop, and whether it wins or loses, you stop there. Reloading short into strength is how traders bleed an account.
What is a Strong Level and how do I use it?
A: A Strong Level is a high conviction price zone mapped in the Battle Plan the night before. It is where price is likely to react. When you are running multiple contracts, the approach into the next Strong Level is your first place to take money off. Overnight that produced a clean 25 point move.
What is a responsive trade?
A: A responsive trade is placing your order in advance at a level where you expect price to bounce, then taking the trade as price comes into that level. You are responding to a mapped area rather than chasing. It either bounces and pays, or it fails fast and you are out with an aggressive stop.
What is a runner and why hold a single one?
A: A runner is a contract you keep on after you have banked profit on the rest of your position. In the Three Contract System you might take two off into a level and hold one single runner just in case price keeps going your direction. It costs you nothing once your money is booked and it catches the outsized moves.
How does George manage risk on a counter trade?
A: Very aggressively. When he fades a strong move he uses a tight stop and accepts that most of these are scratches or small losses. The whole point is to keep each attempt cheap so the rare 5 percent reversal, when it comes, more than pays for the failed tries.
What is the "shut up, suit up, show up, walk" routine?
A: It is George's daily framework for trader mindset. Shut up means stop complaining and be grateful for the opportunity. Suit up means prepare by marking your chart, reading the Battle Plan, and watching the AM Briefing. Show up means arrive at the open prepared. Walk means close the day out and step away once the work is done.
What was the "Perfect Chess" trade?
A: It was the FOMC day trade from last Wednesday where the Battle Plan mapped the move in advance, coming in at Battle Plan 6 and working down through the tiers to Battle Plan 1 for 260 points off the upfront plan. It is a reference example of trading a level map instead of reacting to the tape.
Should I short just because the chart looks extended?
A: No. George warned this was the type of day that hurts people who only want to short, short, short. An extended chart in a bull controlled market is not a short signal by itself. If you must take a counter trade, make it one responsive attempt with tight risk, then stand down.
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