AM Briefing #870: Holding The Lotto Runner Into FOMC
AM BRIEFING
ES CHART | KEY LEVELS | SETUPS
ES Technical Analysis — AM Briefing 870 Timeline
Wednesday October 7, 2026
| TIME | CHAPTER |
|---|---|
| 0:00 | Welcome ES MES Futures Traders |
| 0:32 | Wednesday Briefing #870, FOMC Today It's Wednesday October 7, AM Briefing #870 on the ES. FOMC lands this afternoon. |
| 0:41 | Glory In Tribulations A mindset reading… trials build perseverance, perseverance builds character, and character builds the trader you are meant to be. |
| 1:12 | The Runner From Battle Plan 2 And 3 From last Thursday's Battle Plan 2 and 3, holding the level runner could have banked your first 200 points, 218 at max. Textbook for the 3-Contract System. |
| 2:08 | Short Under The 88 Strong Level Price broke under the 88 Strong Level called in Discord. Still short on the bounce. 84 was the level that could not be reclaimed. |
| 2:43 | Holding The Lotto Runner Still short and holding the lotto runner toward the RTH Gap. Ultimate target near 7765, but pull your stop up to capture part of the move. |
| 3:17 | A Low Probability Trade Every idea here is low probability right now. After 200-plus points and fresh all-time highs, this is a harder environment. |
| 3:54 | Refer To The Battle Plan Locations Not a spot George is interested in trading. Use the Battle Plan to know the long and short locations in advance. |
| 4:13 | All On The Same Train, VWAPs Down Across time frames the charts agree… a clean move down with downward sloping VWAPs. This is the liquidation break. |
| 4:31 | Live Before The Open, Don't Chase George goes live 15 minutes before the open. If short, stay short… do not catch a falling knife, wait for price to reach your level. |
MES MICROS TRADE PLAN
Holding The Lotto Runner Into FOMC
Posted: Wednesday October 07, 2026
This ES futures morning briefing is a lesson in letting a winner run. George is still short from the 88 Strong Level he called in the Discord group, holding his lotto runner off yesterday's liquidation break as price slides toward the RTH Gap. The move was textbook for the Battle Plan and the 3-Contract System… if you held, you had a shot at 200 points, 218 at max. FOMC lands this afternoon, and after 200-plus points and fresh all-time highs this is a low probability, difficult trading environment. The job today is simple. Play perfect chess, pull your stop up to lock part of the runner, and do not catch a falling knife.
THE SHORT FROM THE 88 STRONG LEVEL
The whole trade started when price broke under the Strong Level near 88. George called it live in Discord, got short, and is still short on the bounce. His read… price would try to push back up to 84, and 84 would be the level it could not reclaim. That is exactly how it played out.
A Strong Level is a high-conviction price mapped the night before in the Battle Plan. When price loses it and then fails to reclaim it on the retrace, that failure is your confirmation the move south has legs.
- 88 Strong Level: The level that, once lost, became the key to the move back to the south.
- 84 reclaim level: The retrace target that price could not take back… the failure that kept the short alive.
- Context: The 88 also matched the expected range laid out in last night's Battle Plan, so the stop placement and the reasoning were mapped before the trade, never improvised.
Trader Lesson 1
When a lost level is rejected on the retrace, that failed reclaim is your signal. The 88 broke, 84 could not be taken back, and the short was confirmed.
HOLDING THE LOTTO RUNNER
This is where the 3-Contract System earns its keep. If you kept your level runner from yesterday, you could have captured your first 200 points, 218 at the max of the move. If you have never caught a 200 pointer and you catch one, that is the kind of move you hold for.
A lotto runner is a speculative, low-probability extended position you let ride once the core profit is banked. The ultimate downside target George is eyeing sits near the 7765 level, but he is not married to it. At some point he pulls his stop up to guarantee he captures part of the move.
Trader Lesson 2
Hold the runner for the big move, then trail your stop to lock it in. The goal is to let the winner breathe without ever handing the profit back.
A LOW PROBABILITY ENVIRONMENT INTO FOMC
George was blunt in last night's Battle Plan… this is a super low probability trade. In fact, he joked that if he could make you sign a document disclosing that every trade idea discussed here is low probability right now, he would. The point is to get everyone on the same page about how difficult this tape is.
Why so difficult? Two reasons stacked on top of each other.
- 200-plus points already banked: The market has run a long way, so the easy move is behind us.
- Fresh all-time highs: New record territory thins out clean structure and makes every setup harder to trust.
Add FOMC this afternoon and the message is clear. Size small, be selective, and treat every idea as low probability until price proves otherwise.
Trader Lesson 3
After a 200-plus point run into all-time highs and an FOMC afternoon, call it what it is… low probability. Shrink your size and demand more from every setup.
PLAY PERFECT CHESS, DO NOT CATCH A FALLING KNIFE
Looking across the time frames, the charts are all on the same train… a clean move down with downward sloping VWAPs. This is the liquidation break George was watching for, the sharp flush that cascades through stops.
The discipline rule for a day like this is to wait. Do not catch a falling knife. Let price come to your mapped Battle Plan location, then decide. Whether you want to go long or go short, the locations are already written down, so there is no reason to react in the middle of nowhere.
George will be live 15 minutes before the market opens to update what is happening. If you are short, try to stay short and play perfect chess… because the board was already mapped the night before.
"Try to stay short, play perfect chess. Wait for price to get there… then we will see."
COMMON QUESTIONS FOR ES FUTURES TRADERS
What is a Strong Level in the Battle Plan?
A: A Strong Level is a high-conviction ES futures price mapped the night before in the Battle Plan. When price loses a Strong Level like the 88 and then fails to reclaim it on the retrace, that failure signals the move is likely to continue in the breakout direction.
Why does a failed reclaim matter for a short setup?
A: When price breaks under a level and bounces, the bounce is a test. If it cannot push back above the old level, like the 84 in this session, sellers are in control and the short stays valid. The failed reclaim is your confirmation to keep holding.
What is a lotto runner?
A: A lotto runner is a speculative, low-probability extended position you let ride after banking your core profit. It is the contract you hold for the outsized move, aiming for levels far beyond your first targets while risking only locked-in gains.
How do you manage a runner in ES futures?
A: You let it run toward your far target, then trail your stop up as the move extends. In this session, once you catch 200 points you move your stop to protect those 200 points, so the runner can keep going without ever handing the profit back.
What is the 3-Contract System?
A: It is Micros Trader's core position sizing framework for ES and MES micro futures. You scale out of contracts at planned targets and keep one as a runner, which is how a trader could bank early profit and still hold for the 200-plus point move.
What is a liquidation break?
A: A liquidation break is a sharp flush move that triggers a cascade of stop-loss orders, accelerating price in one direction. You can often spot one by downward sloping VWAPs across multiple time frames, as seen in this session's move south.
Why is this a low probability trading environment?
A: Two factors stack up… the market has already run more than 200 points and it is printing fresh all-time highs, which thins out clean structure. Add an FOMC afternoon and setups become harder to trust, so you size down and stay selective.
What does do not catch a falling knife mean?
A: It means do not try to buy or fade a fast, sharp move in the middle of nowhere. You wait for price to reach a mapped Battle Plan level, then decide, rather than reacting to momentum you cannot control.
How can I get the key ES levels before the open?
A: The Battle Plan publishes tomorrow's ES futures key levels the night before, including Strong Levels and expected ranges. George also goes live 15 minutes before the market opens to update the plan with real-time price action.
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