ES & MES Futures Trade Plan #409
Battle Plan
Where To Go Long... Where To Go Short.
ES & MES FUTURES TRADE PLAN #409
TODAY'S REVIEW: ES FUTURES
Battle Plan Review
🔥 25-60 Pointer for Battle Plan 1️⃣ | ES Short
In the notes for Battle Plan 1️⃣, I specifically wrote…
"Since I think we need a new low, I have mapped this risky short… in the face of 'bulls control'. Not every trade is your trade on your terms."
Notice two things: "Risky" and "Not every trade is your trade on your terms."
If you don't like these conditions, this trade is not yours.
My Entry. My Conviction:
Why did I personally take this short?
I wasn't exactly cryptic about my reasoning. I laid it all on the line in last night's "Members Only" section of the Battle Plan.
Here's what I wrote:
"Personally, I don't trust this up move. Just gotta be honest here.
Bulls mounted a great defense at a great trade location… I'm just not convinced we charge up and print new highs from here. I think we need a better low.
YM, ES, and NQ all finished under yesterday's low. ES got close but did not fill the RTH gap. YM and NQ weren't even close.
My conclusion… just one trader's opinion… I think we need new lows.
The higher-probability trades wait further down the trail.
So we wait. But we ride together.
And remember: bulls control until proven otherwise.
All eyeballs on Battle Plan 1️⃣ tonight."
The Entry:
Battle Plan 1️⃣ presented an entry opportunity two or three times.
But capturing the big move required patience… and a willingness to hold a Lotto Runner through some uncomfortable price action.
In our live trading room this morning, I specifically said I was keeping my Lotto Runner at break-even.
Right Trade. Right Location:
Here's what I want you to understand about today's trade.
Around 7850, we weren't looking for longs.
We were looking for SHORTS.
And shorts delivered.
Was the entry easy? No. Was holding the trade easy? Absolutely not.
But we were looking in the RIGHT direction at the RIGHT trade location.
That's the entire purpose of the Battle Plan… to put us in position to recognize the right trade at the right location BEFORE the move happens.
Battle Plan 1️⃣ delivered.
Target hit.
Holding Runners:
Holding a Lotto Runner afforded you the luxury of NOT having to trade the disgusting RTH price action.
Then… a nice news candle catapulted price in the right direction… DOWN… printing the new low we had been looking for.
Sometimes the best trade is the one you are already in.
Green day ensured… just hold that Lotto Runner.
Entries Are Difficult Here
I can feel some frustration in the group over the difficulty of recent entries.
As I've said all week, we are NOT at a high-probability trade location.
Trading near all-time highs does not always produce clean, clear, crisp price action.
It just doesn't.
And I'm not gonna pretend it does.
Just because a trade works does NOT mean it was high probability. Nor does it mean the trade was easy.
Battle Plan 1️⃣ delivered 25, 50, or even 60 points, depending on where you took profits.
But let's not confuse the outcome with the difficulty of execution.
The entry wasn't easy. Holding through the RTH session was anything but simple.
And that's precisely why I warned last night that this was a risky short.
Critical Distinction...There's a big difference between identifying the right trade location and having a high-probability entry.
The Battle Plan gave us the location and the directional bias.
The price action still had to give us a trade worth taking.
And today, that wasn't easy.
Not every trade is your trade on your terms.
There's no shame in passing on a trade that doesn't fit your risk profile or trade plan.
Your trade plan trumps my Battle Plan.
Tip of the Day
Journal Through The Day:
Keep the journal open all session and write as you go.
Notes made in the moment tell the truth. Lay it out in your journal.
Become the trader you're meant to be.
Tomorrow's Live Streams
|
AM Briefing 
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YouTube Live Stream 
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Scoreboard
Points Accumulated This Week:
Battle Plan: 205+
🔥 25-60 Point Battle Plan 1️⃣ Short
I'm awarding 25 points for reaching target rather easily.
The results of holding a single lotto runner are yet to be finalized.
Zoom: 5+
Although we outlined WHERE and HOW to get short during the RTH session, the first attempt only yielded five points or so.
We identified 7826.50 (how is that for an exact Strong Level) as today's Bull Bear Line.
It certainly was.
The first attempt below only offered a small profit.
But...
Later in the session, you had a separate opportunity to take the short exactly as I outlined.
Price ran 43 points before bouncing off one of our Strong Levels.
🔥 I know Jacky netted 30 points on this trade himself… thanks for sharing & congrats!
Core Strategy: 30+ (For Full Members)
Small range alert, and then a monster 25-point candle should have ended the day.
That said, there were several Core Strategy trades.
Full members should always do their end-of-the-day charts, revealing where every long and every short existed on the chart. That is one of the benefits of being a full member.
ECONOMIC CALENDAR
FRIDAY
MONDAY
TOMORROW’S ES KEY LEVELS AND TRADE IDEAS
Tonight’s Battle Plan maps the ES key levels for tomorrow’s session… the bounce zones and the trade ideas that go with them. Members read the full plan below.
View The Trade Setups
COMMON QUESTIONS FOR ES FUTURES TRADERS
What is a Lotto Runner in ES futures trading?
A: A Lotto Runner is a small piece of a winning position you leave on after taking your main profits. You move the stop to break-even, so the worst case is a scratch. Then you let it ride for the bigger move. In Battle Plan #409, holding a single Lotto Runner on the short meant you did not have to trade the ugly RTH price action. A news candle pushed price down to the new low we were looking for... and the runner collected. Sometimes the best trade is the one you are already in.
What is a Strong Level and a Bull Bear Line?
A: A Strong Level is a price on the chart where buyers or sellers have repeatedly stepped in... a spot where price is likely to react. The Bull Bear Line is the Strong Level that separates bull control from bear control for the session. Above it, bulls are in charge. Below it, bears get their turn. In this session we named 7826.50 as the Bull Bear Line. The first attempt below it paid about five points. The second attempt ran 43 points before bouncing off another Strong Level. One number... two opportunities... if you were patient.
What does "Not every trade is your trade on your terms" mean?
A: It means the Battle Plan gives you the trade location and the directional bias... but your own trade plan decides whether you take it. Battle Plan 1 was mapped as a risky short near all-time highs while bulls still controlled. It paid 25 to 60 points, but the entry was hard and holding through RTH was harder. A trade that works is not automatically a high-probability trade. If the conditions do not fit your risk profile, pass. There is no shame in that. Your trade plan trumps my Battle Plan.
What is Green Over Greed?
A: Green Over Greed means once you are profitable for the day, you stop trading. You bank the green instead of chasing more and giving it back. It matters most on Fridays, when Friday rules are in full effect. In Battle Plan #409 those rules kicked in Thursday night. Take what the market gives you... then protect it.
What is the Core Strategy?
A: The Core Strategy is the Micros Trader intraday method for finding long and short entries during the RTH session, taught to full members. It produced 30 plus points in this session, including one monster 25-point candle after a small range alert. Full members should do their end-of-day charts, marking where every Core Strategy long and short existed. That review is where the learning happens... and it is one of the benefits of being a full member.
MICROS TRADER BASICS
The Leverage Matrix
The Leverage Matrix is Micros Trader's proprietary risk management framework, taught inside the Core Strategy Academy. It defines a trader's position sizing, stop placement, and daily loss limits before they are ever under the pressure of a live trade.
It is designed to be simple, scalable, and locked in before you are intoxicated with the excitement of trading. Members who complete the Leverage Matrix module know their risk on every trade before the market opens.
Related lesson: Position Sizing in the Trading Library
📍 Originally published on MicrosTrader.com
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