Standing Down At All-Time Highs | AM Briefing #869
AM BRIEFING
ES CHART | KEY LEVELS | SETUPS
ES Technical Analysis — AM Briefing 869 Timeline
Tuesday October 6, 2026
| TIME | CHAPTER |
|---|---|
| 0:00 | Welcome ES MES Futures Traders |
| 0:30 | Happy Tuesday, Briefing #869 Opening for Tuesday October 6. Tribulation produces perseverance, perseverance character, and character hope… the same arc as training. |
| 1:08 | News Drivers and Tuesday Livestream ADP employment change today, FOMC Minutes tomorrow, Fed speakers all week. Tuesdays we simulcast the Zoom room live to YouTube. |
| 1:33 | Anatomy Of The Battle Plan |
| 3:03 | How To Short ES: Play Perfect Chess Holding a runner is how you capture the 20, 50 and 75 point moves that come once or twice a week. |
| 3:50 | Battle Plan 2: The Bull Bear Line Long |
| 4:33 | Trading Fits Your Life George missed the trade doing a Bible study with his wife. You won't be in every trade, and trading fits around your life, not the reverse. |
| 5:36 | The Aggressive Counter Short A flagged short for aggressive traders only. Counter a grind by capturing about 50% of the move… this one went 10 to 12 points, banked 5. |
| 6:04 | Slow Grinds Up Benefit Longs The 3-minute ATR was about 2.6. Bulls control, shorts are counter, small if at all… repeated eight times in the live room. |
| 6:43 | 45 Points From All-Time High A Discord warning: SPX sits 45 points under the record. The… |
| 7:19 | Rank Levels Tell The Story Countering the story of break levels is a very hard way to make money on the ES. No interest in shorting until a reversal signature shows. |
| 7:43 | Battle Plan 2 Ran 80 Points Just 25 shy of a 100 pointer. Price finally broke a break level, and there was more to take if you couldn't hold through the close. |
| 8:11 | Yesterday Was A Trending Test Trend days expose leaky holes. You can counter, but it's low win rate. Number one rule: never make things worse… if you're wrong, get out. |
| 9:05 | Current Contract At All-Time High Trade the Z contract you actually execute, not the continuous chart. A recent Battle Plan trade there ran 250 points. |
| 9:57 | Mark The Real High On SPX The cash market is what matters. Drop a line at the true all-time high and set an alert for the crossing. |
| 10:30 | Stand Down At The Top All-time highs are George's least favorite place to trade. Likely Standing Down, still live, taking only a Core Strategy entry if one prints. |
| 10:47 | Everyone Laddering Into Records Upward sloping VWAP and all-time highs across the board, with only the Dow lagging. If you love calling tops, don't do it big today. |
| 11:27 | See You At The Open Fifteen minutes to the bell. We'll trade it together. Together We Trade Better. |
MES MICROS TRADE PLAN
Standing Down At All-Time Highs: Why The Top Is Your Least Favorite Place To Trade
Posted: Tuesday October 06, 2026
Yesterday was a trending test, and those days expose the leaky holes in your boat. The ES kept laddering higher while the top callers kept shorting into strength. This ES futures morning briefing breaks down how Battle Plan 2 handed you a near 100 point long off the Bull Bear Line, why countering a slow grind up is a low win rate trade, and the single most important rule when SPX sits 45 points under its all time high. Today the market is pressing the top, so the lesson is positioning: know where you are, and understand that Standing Down is a real trade. We stream live every Tuesday, so come trade it with us.
YESTERDAY WAS A TRENDING TEST
Monday was a trend day, and trend days are a monster test for a lot of traders. If you kept shorting and kept shorting and kept shorting, the tape told you exactly where your leaks are. Slow grinds up benefit longs. The ATR on the 3-minute chart was about 2.6… a tight, grinding, upward drift that punishes anyone fighting it.
That doesn't mean you can never counter-trade. It means you have to KNOW it's a super low win rate trade going in. And it brings you back to the number one rule.
Trader Lesson 1
On a trend day you can still counter, but only if you accept it is a low win rate trade. The second you're wrong, get out. You can never make things worse.
BATTLE PLAN 2: THE BULL BEAR LINE RECLAIM
The first look on Battle Plan 2 came in early last night, but the entry played out exactly as mapped. Price pushed above the Bull Bear Line, came back to it, pushed above again, came back… and there was your long. A second, cleaner look followed for traders in the chair earlier in the morning: price reclaimed the Bull Bear Line, tapped back into it, and ran to the first target.
From there you had two honest choices. You could say thank you, thank you, thank you and take the exit. Or you could play perfect chess, ignore the interim targets, and hold the runner. To hold like that you have to follow the 3-Contract System so you can survive a double tap.
- Bull Bear Line: the key level dividing bullish from bearish bias. A reclaim, pull back, and hold above it is the long signal.
- Reclaim and retest: price takes the level, comes back to tag it, and holds… confirming the side before you commit.
- Result: Battle Plan 2 ran about 80 points off the max of the RTH session, just 25 shy of becoming a 100 pointer, before a break level finally gave way.
Trader Lesson 2
A clean reclaim and retest of the Bull Bear Line is the setup. Take the mapped exit and be done, or hold the runner on the 3-Contract System. Both are correct… pick one before the open.
COUNTERING A GRIND: CAPTURE 50% AND MOVE ON
There was a possible short on the board yesterday, and it was clearly flagged for the aggressive trader only. You never HAVE to short this market. But if you did, the counter went about 10 to 12 points in George's favor and he banked 5 of them.
That's the discipline. When you're countering or laddering against a move that's running 90% of the time, you treat the trade as a likely break even or loser and you capture roughly 50% of the move. You do not sit and pray for the full extension on the low probability side.
Bulls control. Shorts are counter. Small, if at all. That phrase came up eight times in yesterday's live trading room for a reason.
45 POINTS FROM THE ALL-TIME HIGH
George posted it in the Discord group: the SPX is just 45 points from an all-time high. That's a subtle warning. The short has its biggest target right above our heads, and your trade plan does not say "when I'm within 45 points of the all-time high and we're laddering up, I start shorting." That line isn't in there. But YOU have to know where you are, and that's the gift of trading in a group… we keep each other abreast of exactly where price sits.
Look at the alignment. The S&P is on an upward sloping VWAP making all-time highs. The current ES contract, the Z contract you're actually trading, is at an all-time high. The only laggard is the Dow, still on a down slope, so George isn't trusting its up move too much. Everyone else is laddering above the previous day high into fresh records.
- Trade the current contract: you aren't trading the continuous chart. On the Z contract we're at an all-time high, and a recent Battle Plan trade there ran 250 points.
- Mark the real high: drop a horizontal line on your SPX cash chart at the true all-time high and set an alert. The cash market is the one that matters.
- Rank levels tell the story: countering the story of break levels is a very difficult way to make money on the ES.
Trader Lesson 3
Your trade plan doesn't know where the all-time high is… you have to. Mark it, set an alert, and let the distance to the top shape your size and your patience.
TODAY'S POSTURE: STAND DOWN AT THE TOP
George's least favorite place to trade is at all-time highs. So the plan today is simple: he'll probably be Standing Down. It likely won't be an exciting session, but we'll still be live, we'll still train it together, and if a Core Strategy entry prints, we take it. That's the only thing worth acting on up here.
If you're the trader who loves to call tops, don't do it big today. It just isn't worth it. Until you get the actual signature of a reversal, there's no interest in shorting… up, up, and away it is. Waiting is not sitting on your hands. Choosing not to trade dangerous price action is itself a decision that protects your capital and your head.
Trader Lesson 4
Standing Down is a trade. At all-time highs with no reversal signature, the disciplined move is to wait for a Core Strategy entry or do nothing at all.
TRADING HAS TO FIT YOUR LIFE
Here's an honest one. George missed yesterday's Battle Plan 2 long. He wasn't in the chair… he was doing a Bible study with his wife. He wasn't prepared to trade that morning, he didn't do his training routine, and he let it go. No big deal.
You are not going to be in every trade. Trading has to fit around your life. You don't make your life fit around trading. When you miss one, you don't chase and you don't force. You wait for a new, prepared entry. That mindset is the same thing the opening scripture pointed to: tribulation produces perseverance, perseverance produces character, and character produces hope.
Trader Lesson 5
You won't catch every trade, and that's fine. Trading fits around your life, not the other way around. Miss one, skip the chase, wait for the next prepared entry.
"Your trade plan does not say when I am within 45 points of the all-time high we're laddering up, I am going to be shorting. But you have to know where you're at."
COMMON QUESTIONS FOR ES FUTURES TRADERS
What is the Bull Bear Line in the MES micro futures trade plan?
A: The Bull Bear Line is the key level that divides bullish bias from bearish bias on the ES. When price reclaims it, pulls back to tag it, and holds above, that reclaim and retest is the long signal. Yesterday Battle Plan 2 used exactly this pattern and ran about 80 points.
How do you trade a trend day in ES futures?
A: A trend day grinds in one direction and punishes traders who keep fighting it. Slow grinds up benefit longs. You can still counter, but you must treat it as a low win rate trade, keep size small, and obey the number one rule: the moment you're wrong, get out. You can never make things worse.
Why capture only 50% of a counter-trend move?
A: When you counter or ladder against a move that runs about 90% of the time, the counter is a likely break even or loser. Capturing roughly half the move books real points without asking the low probability side to deliver a full extension. Yesterday's short went 10 to 12 points and 5 were banked.
Should I short ES futures near all-time highs?
A: At all-time highs with price on an upward sloping VWAP and laddering above the prior day high, shorting is a counter trade against the story. Until you see an actual reversal signature, there's no edge in it. If you love calling tops, don't do it with size… it isn't worth it.
What does Standing Down mean, and is it really a trade?
A: Standing Down means choosing not to trade dangerous or low probability conditions. At all-time highs it is a legitimate decision that protects your capital and your mindset. You stay live, stay patient, and only act if a Core Strategy entry prints.
Why should I trade the current contract instead of the continuous chart?
A: You execute on the current contract, not the continuous chart. Right now that's the Z contract, which is sitting at an all-time high. A recent Battle Plan trade on that contract ran 250 points, so mapping levels on the instrument you actually trade keeps your entries and targets accurate.
How do I know where the real all-time high is?
A: Use the SPX cash chart, the market that really matters, and drop a horizontal line at the true all-time high. Set a price alert on it so you know the moment the S&P crosses into record territory and can adjust your bias and size accordingly.
What is the 3-Contract System and why does it matter for runners?
A: The 3-Contract System is Micros Trader's position sizing framework that lets you scale out at mapped targets while keeping a runner alive. It's what allows you to survive a double tap and play perfect chess… holding for the 100 and 150 point moves that come once or twice a week.
What economic events should ES traders watch this week?
A: ADP employment change is on the calendar for Tuesday October 6, and the FOMC Minutes land Wednesday. Fed speakers are sprinkled throughout the week as well, so expect headline risk that can jolt a quiet, top-of-range tape.
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