Tue AM Briefing Preparing For Our Emini Trading Room 08/20/2024
Preparing ES & NQ Traders
For Our Emini and Micros Futures Trading Room
RESOURCES:For Our Emini and Micros Futures Trading Room
TRANSCRIPT:
Good morning, everybody! Good morning! Happy Tuesday, August the 20th. Today's quote: "Watch carefully how you walk, not as unwise but as wise, redeeming the time because the days are evil." Boy, that was true back then, and it's true today. Right, days are evil, but you walk in wisdom, you be the light, you be an Ephesians man. So, this is from Ephesians 5:15. Alright, guys, let's get into it, let's get into it. Well, welcome to the AM Briefing number 243. We're together, we trade better. The tip of the day is going to be the same tip it was yesterday, but I'm adding one thing: You trade long until it's obvious not to, and yes, it can keep going and going and going, and that's what it's doing. It's up, up, and away!
Alright, news drivers: Today's Tuesday, there's nothing. I could have easily made this a yellow circle day - caution, there's no news drivers here. The eyeballs are on the end of the week for Powell, and every day that passes, the more those eyeballs are moving to Friday. So, it is a low news day, to no news day. There are two yellow folder Fed speakers in the afternoon, but in the morning, there's nothing. We're going to trade it anyway, we're going to trade it anyway, or at least we're going to watch it for the love of price action. How about that?
So, let's talk about yesterday. So, yesterday, the tip was "trade long until it's obvious not to," which we covered in the weekend candles video if you want to look at that. So, yesterday, we got this really strong 150 vomit candle early in the day, early in the morning, and it bought it all back. My goodness, the bulls are strong, and then we established this little trend line here, and did it just hug and kiss it, hug and kiss it all day? Then the final push up, there you're like, "Are you kidding me? The day is strong." Those market-on-close orders just were bullish, bullish, bullish.
So, how did our strong levels do yesterday? Pretty darn good. I'm excited about those. If you're a member of mine, you get all of those levels as an indicator on your chart. These are what I believe to be the most important levels on the journey. Does that mean we should be shorting? Is that what that means? Not necessarily. They are where I would believe to be high time frame roadblocks, or I would expect there to be a reaction. I'm certainly not calling the turnaround with my strong levels, but I am saying, "Hey, if there's some confluence there, and you want to take a counter, that makes sense." And we typically go from strong to strong to strong, so as soon as we clear a strong, I wouldn't be countering that in my humble opinion because we're probably headed to the next strong level. That seems to be the way these things go on our indicator.
So, let's go back in time. Let's go back in time. Let's just go back, let's say to here. Let me turn on my centrals indicator. So, at this time, let's just take a peek at this, at this moment in time, what's happening? All of the indices are above their VWAP, all the indices are above yesterday's high. You're getting the all-above signal, okay? You also have an up arrow here saying everything is choo-choo train north. Should we be looking to counter this? No. And in fact, in the Discord group on the trading floor last night, I posted a homework assignment. They said, "I want you to point out to me," or you don't have to do it to me, but go to the chart, "Where was the I might be looking for a counter trade short ended? Where did that end?" And in fact, let me pull this up real quick. The way I had done that, here, let's bring this up real quick. I want to share that with you. That can I post that in here? It's probably too big. Oh no, it's not. There we go. So, the homework was, "Where, what level should you have stopped looking for the possibility to short? Where was the long or flat solidified unquestionably?" So, where should we have said, "No more shorts for me?" Where should have counter traders said, "Uncle, uncle, uncle, you win. I'm closing up shop today." Go look first, and then reveal my answer. This is just how one trader sees it. Your mileage may vary, and then you'll go in there and click this image, and it will show you where I believe that level existed. So, if you're in the group, go check that out in my humble opinion.
Now, uh, so we looked at the train, we looked at the strong levels. Now, let's pull up single prints. We left three sets of single prints yesterday. Let me undo this. Let's go back over here before we get into anything else. So, this trend line for the day, then single prints. So, one set, two set, three sets, four, actually only three sets, and what I want you to make sure is on your chart is the bull-bear here. I believe that exists here and at the single prints, okay? We're going to talk about that here in a minute. So, let's slide over to what's happening right now. Well, what's happening right now is we are still in the upper distribution. Let's go check everybody else real quick. Where is everybody else? Um, all of us are in the upper distribution to right at yesterday's high, okay? So, it makes you go, "Hmm, okay, this still looks like bulls are pretty in control." That said, I now have to throw out this alert: "Risk of a liquidation break is high where we drop like a rock out of nowhere." Okay, so although the trade is still longer flat based off trend, we're now, what, nine up days? It's just getting ridiculous. It's getting a little stretched for sure. So, the risk of a liquidation break is high. It's like when we're vomiting, and I start saying, "Risk of short covering is high." We are now in the opposite side of that, where the risk of a liquidation break is now high in my humble opinion. Now, we're only 1.4 percentage points away from an all-time high in an election cycle. So, wouldn't be shocked if all we do is kept going north because they're going to protect the current administration, and to think that's not true, I think, is being false. Now, can we have a great pullback? Absolutely, we can have a great pullback, and where do I think things change? Well, this is where I'm going to call the bull-bear line today. That's where I'm calling the bull-bear line. Let me move this over just a little bit more so we can see that better. The last set of single prints and that's swing low there. I think this is the bull-bear line. I think underneath here is where you could start looking to get short because nothing changes till we take out a daily low. Nothing changes. It's still up, up, and away. So, let's go look at a couple of things. I want to zoom out a little bit. Let's go to an hourly chart here. Let's swing over here. Let's swing over here. So, when this thing goes down, you start taking out daily lows, you're taking out daily lows, you take out daily lows, and then when it starts going up, it starts taking out daily highs, and look at how this thing is done. We got a daily low, a daily low, a daily low, a daily low, a daily low, a daily low, none of them challenged a daily low, and a daily low. So, until we take out a daily low, nothing happens. I still believe that this, let me see what levels do I have there marked. Let me turn off that RTH halfback. It's going to be important today. Let me turn that, and there's the VPAC of today. I think that level's important, and then let's turn back on the single prints. Where's those single prints? Right there at that 92. I think that is the magic number for things to change where it, we could very possibly target at least one, maybe two, maybe three, and below there, we're coming down. Now, let me bring up my strong levels, and the reason why I'm bringing up all these strong levels is because this is where I still think the bull-bear line exists on a high time frame. This is where the bull-bear line exists. We could come all the way back down into here around this 5480 number, and it's just fine. It's healthy. It's no big deal, but we could be short on the way to it, okay? If we hit the bull-bear line and we start lading back, we get back above this 5510, the warning shot to bulls is how I've classified that on the strong levels. I think it's game on long, all-time highs. I would love to see that happen, and it's, we are getting into the realm where that becomes more possible as the risk of liquidation break becomes higher. Now, I could say that for days, "Hey, risk of liquidation break is high, so be careful."
So, let's bring back the single prints here for a second. I want to bring back the VPO, which is an obvious magnet, which happens to also be the RTH halfback. So, I think I'm going to combine these two. They're basically at the same spot, RTH halfback. Alright, I like that. Let me move this to my session levels. Let me turn that off. I'm going to turn off these single prints. What we're going to do now is we're going to go back to a 30-minute chart here, and what I want to do is I want to bring up the trend lines, okay? So, this 30-minute trend line, we went parabolic. Now, I'm going to make a small adjustment on this parabolic trend line because we have had candles close underneath it. So, where was my last anchor point? Was way down here. I almost anchored it to here yesterday, but now what I'm going to do is I'm going to definitely anchor it. I'm going to anchor it to the body right there. Why the body? Because I really want to know when we first break it. Could I do it at the wick? Yeah, in fact, let's go and just do it at the wick because we're not that far from breaking that, and we want to know when we break that. So, there's going to be several warning flags along the way. Number one, when we break this, then we've got, let's turn on the session levels, we got the halfback and VWAP, and then we come to the bull-bear line, and then 92 is the single print. So, along the way here, we're going to be taking out things. Do you need to be the first one short? Heck no. You could wait until the bull-bear line here is taken out, then look for a short to at least come. I've double marked this level again. Let me remove that. Short to at least here, and then at this point, when do prices go down, guys? When longs get trapped. Are there any trapped longs up here? Is there any trapped longs? No, I don't believe there are any trapped longs yet. They've all made money, and it's easier for them to just keep buying and sending this thing north in an election year and 1.4% from the all-time high, but the risk of a liquidation break at any moment is high, and for it to pull down back to that bull-bear line, let me pull it back on my single prints. I'm at my strong levels. Warning shot to bulls, bull-bear line right here. This is also against this primary 30-minute trend line, and we talked about that bull-bear line against the trend line this weekend, and the weekend candles. I encourage you to watch that. It's still highly relevant to today's price action. Alright, let's go to a three-minute chart. I want to pull this back in. So, we made it to the next strong range last night, which we showed about to the top, hung out at the top. We're still dancing with it, okay? Um, we still have this gap open here and the overnight low, so the first warning flag, the first warning shot to bulls to me is right there. Now, today, we do stream live on YouTube, okay? So, if you're interested in joining me live, I will put the link in the first comment, and I'll put the link in the description. Um, if you want to come and trade with us, that will be available today on YouTube. I do it every Tuesday. I committed to doing that to the end of summer for sure, and we'll see if I'm going to continue that in the fall. So, let's do our bull-bear scorecard. Well, let's turn this on. Well, for ES, we are the overnight trend line. If I had to draw an overnight trend line, I can't. I don't know what I would draw. Um, you know, one person could say it's this, so it's not obvious is what I'm getting after, and could say this. I'm going to have to say since we are stacking sessions, I'm going to have to go with this trend line here. It had a great move to come and grab the overnight low, couldn't do it, ran right back up over the halfback and over VWAP, so I'm going to give that to the bulls. So, let's give that to the bulls. Session stacking, bulls above VWAP, well, bulls. Overnight halfback at this moment, bulls. Yesterday's range, we're in the upper distribution. In fact, we're above yesterday's high, bulls. Indices, let's go take a peek at all the indices real quick. Are we all above the halfback? Yep, two of us are above yesterday's high, yep. So, I've got to give that to the bulls. The bull-bear line, well, I gave you the bull-bear line what I thought was the bull-bear line today, which is going to be this 93. You might even say it's this trend line. However, your criteria will change over time based on the price action. Right now, I would have to look at it as, "Are we in the risk of short covering as high, or are we in the risk of a liquidation break?" I'm going to give that to the bears. However, you still got to say the bulls are in control with a footnote. The risk of a liquidation break is high. So, if you go long and you take a loss, do not make things worse. Do not add to a losing trade. Do not move your stop loss. Yes, going long is the proper play just purely based off everything that we've seen, but we know in the back of our head, the risk of a liquidation break is high, and that is probably what I'm going to be looking for this morning is that liquidation break, and can I participate in that move to the south? Now, we might get up over this strong level here, the strong range here, and keep lading up, come grab these set of single prints, move up to the next, 5662 is the next high time frame liquidity grab. So, if we ladder up over the O, the overnight high, long train, it is chw, chw, chew, keeping in the back of our mind, the risk of a liquidation break is high. You want to join us live? I will include the link below, and um, I wish you good luck today. Stay green, my friends, and to learn more about our group, go to microsTrader.com.
Comments
Post a Comment