Fri ES MES Micros Technical Analysis, Tips, Key Levels 12/20/2024

Preparing ES Emini & MES Micros Traders
For Our Emini and Micros Futures Trading Room



Futures traders are navigating the complexities of Opex Friday amid a volatile market, with today's Level 10 status urging caution. PCE data, consumer sentiment, and the final Z contract trades are key market drivers, alongside critical price levels and strong indicators. A new "huge candle alert" feature aids in recognizing extreme volatility as the market tests regression channel boundaries. Traders are advised to remain vigilant and prioritize safety in their strategies while preparing for potential market rebounds. RESOURCES:
            
▶️ Free "Futures Foundations Course"             
▶️ Membership Options      
▶️Youtube Community Updates             
▶️ Website for ES MES Trading Room (Back Up)


TRANSCRIPT:

Welcome ES MES Futures Traders

Good Morning, Everyone!

Happy Opex Friday! Today is also the "two-day FOMC hangover" day. Let’s start with some inspiration for traders:

"But those who hope in the Lord will renew their strength. They will soar on wings like eagles; they will run and not grow weary, they will walk and not be faint."

Isaiah 40:31

This verse inspires and motivates, reminding us to stay steadfast in our pursuits.

AM Briefing #328

Welcome to the AM Briefing #328, brought to you by MicrosTrader.com, where we come together to trade smarter. Let's dive into today's insights and strategies.

Tip of the Day: Opex is No Joke

Today's trading is classified as a Level 10 Day, emphasizing caution. If you're using my Trade Journal Template, mark this as a "special day." Journaling can provide valuable insights for your trading journey, and I’ll soon release an exclusive video covering advanced journaling strategies. Members can access the Trade Journal Template to use with a free Airtable account.

News Drivers for Today and Next Week

Today's Key Drivers:

  • PCE data and University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment.
  • It's the last day for trading the Z contract. Extreme caution is advised.
  • Historically, December tends to be more challenging for trading, so plan accordingly.

Next Week:

  • Christmas falls midweek, making Monday and Tuesday potential trading days, with the rest of the week likely quiet.
  • Consumer Confidence data will kick off the week.

Strong Levels: Defining Key Ranges

What are Strong Levels?

Strong levels are predefined price zones that I believe price will interact with. These levels are shared through an indicator that members can toggle on and off, eliminating manual plotting.

Weekly Setup Process:

  • Strong levels and ranges are set every weekend for the following week.
  • Notes like "bull/bear lines," "watch out below," and "likely targets" are added for key trading areas.
  • This week’s likely target has been reached, showcasing the precision of these levels.

ES Chart: Where Are We Now?

We’re at an important trading location:

Current Status:

  • Price has hit the likely target and back-tested a major trendline.
  • Overnight lows have been taken out, and we are at the election gap zone from November 5th.

Scenarios:

  • If price holds, we could see a rebound northward.
  • A strong reaction off the likely target could spark a Santa Claus rally.

Essentials Indicator Update

New Feature: Huge Candle Alerts

  • A 20-point candle now triggers a red alert, highlighting extreme volatility.
  • This feature helps identify environments of irrational price action, making it easier to adjust strategies accordingly.

Overnight Price Action & Current Indices Status

  • Overnight action displayed significant volatility with eight-point candles in the London session.
  • The VWAP analysis shows Bears firmly in control across indices.
  • Long positions should be taken with extreme caution, if at all.

Bull-Bear Scorecard

  • Bears Control: Trendlines, session stacking, VWAP, and overnight halfback are all Bearish.
  • Key Observation: While Bears dominate, price remains near significant levels where a reversal is possible.

Closing Thoughts

We are at a pivotal range near the bottom of long-term regression channels, a location where price could rebound. While a breakout is rare, returning to the range is more common. Stay alert and trade smart.

Stay green, my friends! To learn more about our community, visit MicrosTrader.com.

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