Thu ES MES Micros Technical Analysis 01/16/2025

Preparing ES Emini & MES Micros Traders
For Our Emini and Micros Futures Trading Room



Traders face heightened volatility with CPI data behind us and options expiration looming. Yesterday’s session delivered precise reactions at key levels, showcasing the importance of disciplined charting. Overnight action respected established ranges, setting the stage for today’s price dynamics. With bulls and bears battling for control, traders must stay alert and adhere to their strategies. RESOURCES:
            
▶️ Free "Futures Foundations Course"             
▶️ Membership Options      
▶️Youtube Community Updates             
▶️ Website for ES MES Trading Room (Back Up)


TRANSCRIPT:

Welcome ES MES Futures Traders

Welcome to the AM briefing video presented by MicrosTrader.com, where together we trade better. Good morning, everyone!

Scripture of the Week

“Don’t worry about anything, but in everything, through prayer and petition with thanksgiving, let your requests be made known to God.” - Philippians 4:6

Tip of the Day

A watched chart never runs.

What is the best trade management system? Often, it involves setting your stop, walking away, and letting the market do its thing. Go run errands, hit some golf balls—don’t sit there staring. Yesterday’s price action reflected this perfectly: a slow grind before the eventual move. Set your stop, step away, and let the market play out.

News Drivers

We are currently in a complex trading environment. Yesterday's CPI data shook things up, and today is the day before options expiration—a challenging day for many traders. We're at Level 10 trading conditions: post-CPI, pre-options expiration. Tomorrow’s expiration will likely bring added volatility.

Yesterday's Review

During yesterday’s session, we streamed the AM briefing, followed by the CPI release. At one point, we anticipated a move to 91, and the market delivered exactly that.

  • Bottom and top of the strong range: These are essential to have on your charts as they often mark significant areas of price reaction.
  • POC (Point of Control): Trading near the POC and halfback is challenging, as these areas represent "fair value" zones. Prices tend to hover here without providing strong directional opportunities.

Some trades from the group:

  • Morning short at 91 resulted in 10 points.
  • Afternoon long generated 30 points.

Overnight Action

In the overnight session, the market finally reached 6002 before climbing to the next key level of 6016. Strong reactions occurred at these levels, confirming their importance.

Key takeaway: Prices tend to bounce off significant levels, especially the first time they test them. Always plan your trades around these zones.

Key Levels for Today

  • 6016: Already tested.
  • 6076-6070: Warning zone for bulls.
  • Halfback of the day: Monitor this as a critical level.
  • Gap fill from the previous day: Target this if the market moves lower.

High Time Frame Analysis

On the hourly and four-hour charts, the trend remains uncertain, with potential resistance at key trend lines. On a broader scale, this could still be a lower high unless the market decisively breaks above major levels.

Bull/Bear Scorecard

  • Trend Line: Bears
  • VWAP: Bears
  • Halfback: Bears
  • Yesterday’s Range: Bulls
  • Bull/Bear Line (Halfback): Bears
  • Risk of Short Covering or Liquidation Break: Neutral

Final Notes

After yesterday’s big move, caution is key. Today’s pre-options expiration environment can be unpredictable. Stay disciplined, manage your risk, and avoid overtrading.

For more information about our group, visit MicrosTrader.com.

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