ES MES Futures Trading: Key Levels, Tips, Technical Analysis. Tuesday "AM Briefing"

Preparing ES Emini & MES Micros Traders
For Our Emini and Micros Futures Trading Room



In a post-holiday trading session, ES and MES futures hover near all-time highs as traders exercise caution amid lower liquidity. Market participants closely monitor the Empire State Manufacturing Index, set to release an hour before the open, while also preparing for OPEX later in the week. With bulls maintaining control, traders are assessing key support levels at 4713.75 and 4688 for potential shifts in momentum. Meanwhile, a new live-streaming initiative, "The Opening Candles," is being tested, providing real-time market analysis before and after the opening bell. As traders navigate these conditions, discipline remains paramount, with many opting to wait for a high-quality entry or sit out entirely. RESOURCES:
            
▶️ Free "Futures Foundations Course"             
▶️ Membership Options      
▶️Youtube Community Updates             
▶️ Website for ES MES Trading Room (Back Up)


TRANSCRIPT:

Welcome ES MES Futures Traders

AM Briefing Video

Good morning, everyone! Happy Tuesday, February 18th. Welcome to the AM Briefing video presented by MicrosTrader.com, where together, we trade better.

Weekly Scripture

Isaiah 53:5

"But he was pierced because of our transgressions, crushed because of our iniquities; punishment for our peace was on him."

Tip of The Day

Since today is the day after a bank holiday, I encourage you to moderate your expectations. If you are using my trade journal template, this would be a great day to mark as a special day—label it as "the day after a bank holiday."

Take note of how the price action unfolds today. Over time, you'll build a valuable dataset that helps you determine whether this is a day you should trade or skip altogether.

We'll still be live today, but I will personally be moderating my expectations.

News Drivers for Futures Traders

Since today follows a bank holiday, expect lower liquidity and potential irregular price action.

Key Economic Release Today:

  • 📌 Empire State Manufacturing Index (1 hour before the market opens)

I mark this as an "orange" day due to its potential impact. Additionally, we have OPEX later in the week, which is something to keep in mind as the week progresses.

Weekly Reminder for Futures Traders

There’s something new this week!

  • AM Briefing Video: Released 1 hour before the market opens.
  • Mental Training on Zoom: 30 minutes before market open with our members.
  • New Live Stream Experiment:

I'm testing out my new Mac Mini Pro and its performance this week. Here’s the plan:

  • While we’re on Zoom, I’ll go live on YouTube each morning for what I’m calling "The Opening Candles."
  • I’ll go live 10 minutes before the market opens and stay live 10-15 minutes after the open.
  • TODAY (Tuesday): I will live-stream the entire morning session!

Come check it out! The YouTube link is in the description and probably the first comment.

Make sure you grab your Free Foundations Course, and if you join, earn your badges! If you like what we do here, please like, subscribe, and consider becoming a member.

Seasonality for ES

We haven't discussed seasonality in a while. Historically, the second half of February tends to exhibit specific price action patterns.

  • 🔹 We are currently inches away from an all-time high—just as we discussed in the Weekend Update.
  • 🔹 Will price action follow historical seasonality? We will not trade based on predictions. We let price action guide us.

ES Chart - Where Are We At?

Looking at the 4-hour chart, a few key observations:

  • 🔸 RTH High: Some traders use the back-adjust button, and some don’t. I personally use it.
  • 🔸 The H contract high is 4787.5—add that to your charts!
  • 🔸 Without back-adjust, we’re close to the real all-time high.

Key Levels to Watch

  • 🔹 4787.5 – The highest price this contract has ever traded.
  • 🔹 High timeframe trendline: We are back at a major trendline test. If price holds, it validates the trendline as significant support.

Trading Strategy & Trend Considerations

  • 🔸 Bulls Control: The trend remains strongly bullish until proven otherwise.
  • 🔸 How do you short an uptrend? This is a crucial question. Traders must have strict rules before attempting to short into a strong market.

Key Support Levels for Bulls:

  • 1️⃣ 4713.75 – First warning shot to bulls.
  • 2️⃣ 4688 – Another critical support.
  • 3️⃣ Below 4688 – Things could get more interesting for sellers.

Final Thoughts

Trading near all-time highs is not my favorite place to trade. Combine that with low liquidity following a bank holiday, and I am moderating my expectations today.

📌 Plan:

I’m looking for one high-quality entry that aligns with my strategy. If I don’t get it, no trade for me today—and that’s perfectly okay.

Reminder:

  • ✅ Mental Training for members 30 minutes before market open.
  • ✅ Live on YouTube 20 minutes before market opens—streaming the entire session today!
  • ✅ Stay disciplined, stay patient, and stay green, my friends!

To learn more about our trading group, visit: MicrosTrader.com

MORE INFORMATION:

SUMMARY:

  • ✅ Post-Holiday Trading Strategy: Moderate expectations and track how post-holiday price action behaves for future reference.
  • ✅ Live Streaming Experiment: Testing a new format for live analysis before and after market open.
  • ✅ Market at All-Time Highs: ES futures are near record highs—caution is advised.
  • ✅ Key Support Levels: 4713.75 and 4688 are key for bulls.
  • ✅ Trading Discipline: Only take high-quality setups—no trade is better than a bad trade.


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