ES MES Futures Trading: Key Levels, Tips, Technical Analysis. Wednesday "AM Briefing"

Preparing ES Emini & MES Micros Traders
For Our Emini and Micros Futures Trading Room



Futures traders closely monitor today’s FOMC minutes, expecting potential volatility. Yesterday’s price action was choppy, leading many to avoid unnecessary trades. While ES is testing a high-time frame trend line, its parabolic uptrend suggests continued bullish momentum. Key levels indicate that traders should watch for a potential breakout, with bounce trades being the preferred strategy. RESOURCES:
            
▶️ Free "Futures Foundations Course"             
▶️ Membership Options      
▶️Youtube Community Updates             
▶️ Website for ES MES Trading Room (Back Up)


TRANSCRIPT:

Welcome ES MES Futures Traders

AM Briefing Video

Welcome to the AM briefing video presented by MicrosTrader.com, where together we trade better!

Good morning, everybody! Happy Wednesday, February 19th.

This Week's Scripture

Isaiah 53:5

"But he was pierced because of our transgressions, crushed because of our iniquities; punishment for our peace was on him."

What a powerful verse!

Tip of The Day for Futures Traders

Can you say no to the chart?

Yesterday was a "say no to the chart" day. I'm going to share what we discussed in our group and live on YouTube as well.

News Drivers for Futures Traders

  • Today: FOMC minutes in the afternoon. In my opinion, it's a green trading day.
  • Tomorrow: The day before options expiration, so it’s a yellow caution day—trade small if at all.
  • Friday: The "Friday Rules" start tomorrow, and of course, Friday is options expiration day.

Yesterday's Review for Micros Futures Traders

After finishing trading, I told the group:

  • "Ugly price action, as expected."
  • Moderate your expectations.
  • Don’t waste your energy watching too closely.

Key Takeaways from Yesterday’s Trading

  • Before the open, we had a nice move down, and I was looking for long entries at key levels.
  • However, the right entry never materialized for me—so it was a no-trade day for me.
  • Later in the day, we saw a sharp flush down followed by a strong reaction up—exactly the setup I was waiting for, but it happened outside my trading hours.
  • Lesson: When small ranges dominate the opening, our data shows it's not worth watching price action all day.

Why We Avoid the Last Hour of Trading

  • The last hour often brings crazy action—people hoping for a breakdown got squeezed badly yesterday.
  • We saved our energy and kept our strategy intact, ready to trade today.

ES Chart - Where Are We At?

  • We’re testing the high time frame trend line again.
  • Price action is becoming more parabolic in its move upward.
  • The all-time high is within reach, and the momentum suggests we are more likely to break higher than lower.
  • The key principle: Lean in the direction the current is flowing! Right now, the current is flowing north.

Key Levels & Trends

  • When ES tightens up, it usually leads to a big move.
  • Be careful shorting this unless you see a confirmed breakdown.
  • The FOMC minutes could trigger a reaction, so be prepared.

Intraday Levels & Market Structure

  • We tested and held strong levels yesterday.
  • We moved above key resistance, retested, and continued higher.
  • Session POC (Point of Control):
    • The 11-session POC is a key marker—prices retested it and bounced.
    • This POC represents the middle of the range, meaning trading decisions should be cautious in this zone.

SPX, SPY, NDX, QQQ - Cash Markets Review

  • SPX, SPY, NDX, and QQQ all hit new all-time highs yesterday.
  • Futures are currently lagging behind cash indices—a signal to watch closely.
  • Key takeaway: If the market shakes out weak longs first, we could see a strong move higher toward new all-time highs.

ES MES Micros Chart - Part II

Trade Location & Trend

  • We are at the top of a high time frame range.
  • Normally, this favors shorts, but since we are in a parabolic move upward, shorts are riskier.
  • Best approach: Trade the bounces at key levels, rather than trying to predict tops or bottoms.

Final Thoughts

  • Know where price is likely to bounce and trade accordingly.
  • We are bounce traders—not trend predictors.
  • If you want to learn our trading strategies, check us out at MicrosTrader.com.

MORE INFORMATION:

SUMMARY:

  • ✅ FOMC Minutes Impact: Today’s key news driver is the FOMC minutes—expect potential volatility in the afternoon.
  • ✅ Yesterday’s Market Action: Price action was choppy and unattractive for most of the session. A late-day sharp drop and recovery followed, but it happened outside my trading hours.
  • ✅ Current Market Positioning: ES is testing a high time frame trend line while remaining in a parabolic uptrend. Momentum favors the bulls, making shorts riskier.
  • ✅ Intraday Levels to Watch: The 11-session POC is a key reference point, and the market structure suggests a potential move toward all-time highs after a shakeout.
  • ✅ Trading Strategy: Trade bounces at key levels, stay cognizant of trend direction, and avoid predicting tops or bottoms.


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