ES MES Futures Trading: Key Levels, Tips, Technical Analysis. Thursday "AM Briefing"

Preparing ES Emini & MES Micros Traders
For Our Emini and Micros Futures Trading Room



Markets remain bullish as traders navigate a historically volatile session ahead of options expiration. With prices near all-time highs, traders are urged to exercise caution and follow disciplined risk management. An overnight short trade was initially stopped out but later reentered as momentum shifted downward. While bulls maintain control, a break of key technical levels could trigger a much-needed pullback. RESOURCES:
            
▶️ Free "Futures Foundations Course"             
▶️ Membership Options      
▶️Youtube Community Updates             
▶️ Website for ES MES Trading Room (Back Up)


TRANSCRIPT:

Welcome ES & MES Futures Traders

Welcome to the AM briefing video presented by MicrosTrader.com, where together, we trade better.

Good morning, everybody! Happy Thursday, February 20th. Man, this month is flying by!

This Week’s Scripture

Isaiah 53:5

"But he was pierced because of our transgressions, crushed because of our iniquities; punishment for our peace was on him."

Tip of the Day

When bulls are in control, short positions should be countered minimally, if at all. Never make things worse by fighting the trend—shorts can be very painful. Stay on the right side of price action and the current market movement.

One of the things I pride myself on during live Zoom sessions with my traders is keeping everyone on the right side of the market.

News Drivers

Today's key market driver: It’s the day before options expiration, which is historically a dangerous day to trade. We are near all-time highs, making today a “one-loss-and-done” kind of day. Friday trading rules apply starting today.

Yesterday, I did a price action recap, breaking down the market candle by candle. I won’t do that again today, but I will summarize key takeaways.

Yesterday’s Review

Using our core strategy and the fundamental levels taught in boot camp, yesterday’s trades resulted in:

  • One break-even trade
  • One possible loss (though it wasn’t a legitimate level)
  • Five winners

The “maybe” loss was close enough that some traders might have drawn the level differently, resulting in a loss. That’s okay—losses happen. One losing trade should not ruin your day. What matters is how you handle losses, as that ultimately determines whether you’ll be a successful trader.

Overnight Plan - ES Short

Last night, I shared a trade scenario with the group and labeled it the Overnight Plan.

  • As long as we remain above a key level, short positions should be taken cautiously.
  • If we drop below that level, we might revisit the multi-session Point of Control (POC) discussed in recent AM briefings.
  • If price drops below 49, I’m interested in a short. My stop-loss would be set just above 49.

I took this trade last night. Price initially moved in my direction but later reversed, stopping me out just above 49. Oh well.

This morning, the Dow surged up before slamming back down through this level. I took another short with two contracts—closed one and kept one open. If we break the 14-session POC, we could see a significant move to the downside.

We haven’t had a major downward move in a while. The bulls still control the market, but I’m closely watching trendlines and VWAP for confirmation. If we finally break this strong range, a substantial move south could be in play.

Indices Update

Right now, we are trading inside yesterday’s range, which is not bearish. If anything, it still favors the bulls. The bears have no control—they’re just teddy bears at this point.

However, we haven’t had a real pullback in a while. Let’s examine the daily chart:

  • The market has mostly experienced two-day pullbacks at a time.
  • The last time we saw more than three consecutive down days was back in September.
  • The last four-day pullback was in December.

We seem to be targeting new all-time highs, but a pullback to retest the opening price would be ideal before breaking out again.

ES Chart - Where Are We?

Switching to the 30-minute chart, we see a clear parabolic uptrend. Until we break this structure, the bulls remain firmly in control.

On the 3-minute chart, we are currently testing a key trendline. If we break it, we could see some downside action, possibly triggering liquidity grabs.

Final Thoughts

I wish you good luck trading today! I’ll see my traders live on Zoom, 30 minutes before the market opens, for our mental training session.

Stay green, my friends!

To learn more about our group, check out MicrosTrader.com.

MORE INFORMATION:

SUMMARY:

  • ✅ Bulls Still in Control – The market remains in an uptrend, with bulls dominating price action. Shorting should be minimal and only at strategic locations.
  • ✅ Key Market Driver: Options Expiration – The day before options expiration is historically volatile. With markets near all-time highs, traders should follow Friday trading rules today.
  • ✅ Yesterday’s Performance – Using the core strategy, traders experienced one break-even, one possible loss, and five wins. Managing losses is key to long-term success.
  • ✅ Overnight Short Plan – A short trade was attempted below 49 but resulted in a stop-out. Another short was taken this morning, with partial profit locked in.
  • ✅ Market Outlook & Next Steps – The market structure favors continued bullish movement unless key trendlines break. If so, we could see a significant downside move. Traders should stay alert to trend shifts.

Wall Street Journal-Style Summary

Markets remain bullish as traders navigate a historically volatile session ahead of options expiration. With prices near all-time highs, traders are urged to exercise caution and follow disciplined risk management. The overnight short trade was initially stopped out but later reentered as momentum shifted downward. Bulls continue to control the trend, but a break of key levels could signal a much-needed pullback.



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