ES MES Futures Trading: Key Levels, Tips, Technical Analysis. Friday "AM Briefing"

Preparing ES Emini & MES Micros Traders
For Our Emini and Micros Futures Trading Room



Futures traders are bracing for heightened volatility on Option Expiration Friday, with warnings to scale down and protect weekly gains. Yesterday’s market saw bulls in control until a key trendline break triggered a sharp decline, highlighting the importance of tracking high-timeframe levels. Key economic events next week, including Consumer Confidence, PCE data, and NVIDIA earnings, could influence market direction. Traders are advised to mark critical levels on their charts and stay disciplined to navigate the upcoming sessions effectively. RESOURCES:
            
▶️ Free "Futures Foundations Course"             
▶️ Membership Options      
▶️Youtube Community Updates             
▶️ Website for ES MES Trading Room (Back Up)


TRANSCRIPT:

Welcome ES MES Futures Traders

AM Briefing Video

Welcome to the AM briefing video presented by MicrosTrader.com, where together we trade better!

Good morning, and happy Option Expiration Friday, February 21st. This briefing is brought to you by MicrosTrader, where we strive to improve our trading together.

Today's Scripture

Isaiah 53:5

"But he was pierced because of our transgressions, crushed because of our iniquities; punishment for our peace was on him."

Tip of the Day

Today’s tip is about Weekend Update videos. These videos are published over the weekend, and I am working on being more consistent with them. Be on the lookout this weekend for an update video where I will go over all the key levels on my chart in real time. Bring out your charts, follow along with me, and let’s get our levels updated so we are prepared for the coming week.

News Drivers & Market Outlook

Option Expiration Friday - Trade with Caution

Today is a special Friday—Option Expiration Friday. If you are a newer trader, today is NOT the best day to trade. Instead, consider scaling down your trades and following Friday Rules:

  • Trade small if at all.
  • Reduce your daily loss limit.
  • If you had a great week, protect your gains.
  • Do not give back your weekly profits today.
  • One loss and done—if you trade at all!

Key Economic Events Next Week

  • Monday: No major events.
  • Tuesday: Consumer Confidence report.
  • Wednesday: New Home Sales.
  • Thursday: Unemployment Claims.
  • Friday: PCE data release (potential market mover).
  • Wednesday: NVIDIA earnings—could be a major event next week.

Yesterday's Market Review

Bullish Control Until the Breakdown

The bulls controlled the market until it became obvious that momentum had shifted.

  • A parabolic 30-minute trendline held strong at my key level, making it a great shorting opportunity.
  • One of my traders, Caleb, executed a beautiful short from that level.
  • The trend finally broke, leading to a big downside move.

I was not in that move and was disappointed about missing it. However, I later caught a great long position, which made up for the missed trade.

Key Market Observations from Yesterday

  • Initial Balance (IB) High & Low remained intact – this only happens ~4% of the time.
  • The market returned to the 14-session POC (Point of Control).
  • On Zoom, my job is to bring clarity, vision, and calmness to trading days like this.

ES Chart - Where Are We Now?

Looking at a higher time frame chart:

  • We lost the parabolic trendline and dropped to a major trendline support that we have been tracking all week.
  • If you followed my weekend update videos, you should have had this trendline marked.
  • Mark February 2nd's deep drop and connect it to the February 12th low to see this trendline on your chart.

If we lose this level, it could lead to a major downside move.

Strong Levels for ES MES Futures Traders

Key Support & Resistance Zones

  • My recommended short was off a high-timeframe resistance level.
  • The target was initially a lower level, but price extended all the way to the trendline.
  • The "Warning Shot for Bulls" was a key area that needed to hold for buyers to stay in control.

These levels are published every Sunday, so we have been tracking them throughout the week.

Overnight Action: Where Are We?

We are back in the middle of the range we’ve been tracking.

  • Key level to watch: 1775 – this is the bull-bear line.
  • Until we break 1775 and the trendline, we have to give bulls the benefit of the doubt.

Final Thoughts

Stay green, my friends! If you want to learn more about our trading group, visit MicrosTrader.com.

MORE INFORMATION:

SUMMARY:

  • ✅ Option Expiration Caution – Today is Option Expiration Friday, meaning higher volatility. New traders should consider sitting out or trading smaller.
  • ✅ Yesterday’s Market Recap – Bulls controlled the market until a trendline break triggered a sharp drop.
  • ✅ Key Levels to Watch – We are at a major trendline support. Losing this level could lead to a big move.
  • ✅ Next Week’s Market Events – Watch for Consumer Confidence, New Home Sales, Unemployment Claims, PCE, and NVIDIA earnings.
  • ✅ Stay Prepared and Follow the Plan – Keep an eye on strong levels, review the weekend updates, and trade with discipline.


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