ES MES Futures Trading: Key Levels, Tips, Technical Analysis. Saturday "AM Briefing"

Preparing ES Emini & MES Micros Traders
For Our Emini and Micros Futures Trading Room



Markets have been riding bullish momentum as cash indices reached all-time highs, but traders remain cautious ahead of key economic reports and NVIDIA earnings. The PCE report on Friday is expected to be a major market mover, adding to existing volatility. Technical analysis suggests that price action at key levels will determine if the uptrend continues or if a reversal is imminent. Traders are closely monitoring liquidity zones and strong trendlines to gauge market direction. RESOURCES:
            
▶️ Free "Futures Foundations Course"             
▶️ Membership Options      
▶️Youtube Community Updates             
▶️ Website for ES MES Trading Room (Back Up)


TRANSCRIPT:

Welcome ES MES Futures Traders

Welcome to the AM Briefing Video, presented by MicrosTrader.com, where together we trade better.

Weekly Scripture

1 John 3:16

"This is how we have come to know love: He laid down His life for us. We should also lay down our lives for our brothers."

We’ll discuss this more throughout the week, but this is a powerful reminder of selfless love.

Tip of the Day

✅ Small losses happen. Large losses are created.

News Drivers This Week

  • Monday – No major economic reports.
  • Tuesday – Consumer Confidence Report.
  • Wednesday – No major reports; Home Sales.
  • Thursday – Unemployment Claims & Durable Goods Orders.
  • Friday – PCE Report (a key market mover).

🚨 Caution for Friday – Market volatility tends to increase, and the PCE report could amplify the movement.

Earnings to Watch

The most significant earnings release this week is NVIDIA, which could have a major impact on the market. Other key companies reporting include Home Depot, Lowe’s, and Krispy Kreme Donuts (though my eyes are on NVIDIA).

Yesterday’s Review: In-Depth Chart Analysis

Market Trends & Bull/Bear Line

Yesterday, the bull/bear line was set at 1775. As long as this level held, bulls remained in control. At the open, we saw a climb, forming a trendline leading to a high time frame backside level.

Key Takeaways:

  • 📈 Cash indices (QQQ, NDX, SPX, SPY) all hit all-time highs.
  • 📊 ES futures attempted to follow but faced resistance.
  • 📌 15-25 point bounces off strong trendlines provided solid trade opportunities.
  • 💰 Liquidity grabs at the RTH low offered potential long setups.
  • 🔻 Failure to reclaim key levels confirmed a breakdown.

Key Trading Levels & Execution Strategy

  1. Bullish Confirmation: Price must break above the bull/bear line to confirm strength.
  2. Bearish Breakdown: A trendline break and close below the RTH low signals weakness.
  3. Strong Levels Matter: Trades should align with strong fair value gaps, liquidity zones, and break levels.

Understanding the Trend & Market Psychology

Trendlines and Parabolic Moves

  • A trendline break is the first warning of a shift in market sentiment.
  • Parabolic moves should not be countered aggressively – small size if at all.

Identifying When the Market Changes Control

  • 🔼 Bulls remain in control until key trendlines break and price action confirms weakness.
  • 🔽 Bears take over when price consistently ladders down and fails to reclaim key support levels.

ES Emini Chart Updates – Key Levels for Next Week

  • 📌 Single Prints & Gaps: Large single prints suggest fast moves and potential continuation.
  • 📈 Volume Profile & Key POCs: These levels indicate where the most volume traded and where price could react.
  • 📊 Trendline Adjustments: Updating high-time frame trendlines helps visualize market shifts.

What’s Next?

  • 🚨 Break Below Key Trendline = Bearish Outlook
  • 🚀 Holding Above Bull/Bear Line = Potential for New Highs
  • 🎯 NVIDIA Earnings Could Be a Major Catalyst

Final Thoughts

We are currently in a high-time frame range—trading within this zone can be tricky. Until we break out decisively, expect strong support and resistance at key levels.

Stay Green, My Friends!

MORE INFORMATION:

SUMMARY:

  • ✅ Market Overview – The market has been bullish, with all-time highs in cash indices, but caution is warranted as we approach key resistance levels.
  • ✅ Key Economic Drivers – This week’s major reports include Consumer Confidence, Unemployment Claims, and the PCE report on Friday, which could be a big market mover.
  • ✅ Earnings Watch – NVIDIA’s earnings will be the most significant catalyst this week, with other key reports from Home Depot and Lowe’s.
  • ✅ Trading Strategy Recap – Bullish momentum persisted until the trendline break, confirming a shift. Key levels, liquidity grabs, and strong break points dictated trading entries and exits.
  • ✅ Looking Ahead – Trendline retests and price action at high time frame support/resistance will determine if we continue higher or see further downside. 🚀📉


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