ES MES Futures Trading: Key Levels, Tips, Technical Analysis. Friday "AM Briefing"

Preparing ES Emini & MES Micros Traders
For Our Emini and Micros Futures Trading Room



The futures market is at a critical juncture as traders assess whether bulls will defend key support levels near 5800. The PCE report produced little reaction, leaving market participants looking ahead to next week’s non-farm payroll data and a speech from Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Seasonality trends suggest that March and April could see strong short-covering rallies, setting up potential trade opportunities. With market sentiment on edge, traders remain cautious, waiting for confirmation before taking positions. RESOURCES:
            
▶️ Free "Futures Foundations Course"             
▶️ Membership Options      
▶️Youtube Community Updates             
▶️ Website for ES MES Trading Room (Back Up)


TRANSCRIPT:

Good Morning and Welcome to the AM Briefing

Good morning, everybody! Welcome to the AM Briefing, brought to you by MicrosTrader.com—where we trade better together. There’s always another high-probability trade around the corner; you just have to sit tight. Trading is sitting. Trading is waiting.

Today is Friday, February 28th—the final day of the week, the final day of the month, and the final day for this scripture:

1 John 3:16

"This is how we have come to know love: He laid down His life for us. He paid the penalty for us. He took the punishment for us. And whoever believes in Him shall have eternal life and receive the gift of the Holy Spirit. We should also lay down our life for our brothers."

Tip of the Day

  • When bears control, longs are risky.
  • When you're at the bottom of the range, shorts are risky.
  • So what do you do? We’ll review yesterday’s price action to discuss this in more detail.

News Drivers for Today

We are currently live for the PCE candle at the bottom of the hour, followed by the Chicago PMI report 15 minutes after the market opens. This makes today a caution day, and we’ll be live throughout the morning.

Looking Ahead to Next Week

  • Monday: Manufacturing PMI
  • Wednesday: ADP Non-Farm Employment Change & Services PMI
  • Thursday: Unemployment & FOMC Speaker
  • Friday: Non-Farm Payroll & Powell Speaks

It looks like we have a big Friday ahead!

Seasonality Outlook

We've been tracking seasonality closely, and so far, we’re on track. As we move into March and April, we anticipate more volatility and trading opportunities. Personally, I love nothing more than short covering rallies, and March/April could set up some great plays.

Reviewing Yesterday’s Price Action

Yesterday morning, we were looking to go long, but since bears were in control, I waited for a second ladder before entering. My rule is:

  • I don’t take the first ladder unless it’s at an extremely high-probability level.
  • Unfortunately, I missed the initial move, and there wasn’t another trade opportunity for me.

When Bears Control, Wait for the Second Ladder

  • When bears control and I want to go long, I wait for the second ladder.
  • When bulls control and I want to go short, I wait for the second ladder.

This is key confirmation. In general, I want to be short when bears are in control and long when bulls are in control.

We are now officially at the bottom of the range, testing key support levels. The big question is: Will bulls defend it, or is there more downside potential?

Overnight Trade Setup

  • 5797 was my key level for a long trade.
  • I had an order to go long, but price didn’t quite reach it before reversing.
  • When I woke up, the trade hadn’t triggered, but I was still interested in the long setup.

Market Structure & Levels to Watch

  • Price is currently at the bottom of the high-timeframe range.
  • Bulls have one last chance to defend key levels.
  • If we break lower, there are strong support zones near 5800.

Live Market Reaction to PCE

  • So far, PCE has been a dud of a reaction—nothing surprising.
  • If price sweeps the lows and reclaims range, a long opportunity may present itself.
  • If price pushes higher immediately, we’ll wait for the RTH open to develop trades.

Plan: Trade levels as they develop.

Final Thoughts & AM Briefing Wrap-Up

If you’re looking for a trading group focused on E-mini and Micro ES/MES trading, check us out at MicrosTrader.com.

  • ✅ Give this video a thumbs up!
  • ✅ Leave a comment & share with others who might benefit!

The more engagement we get, the more YouTube allows others to discover it. Thanks for the support, and I’ll see my traders live in 30 minutes for mental training, trade mapping, and market updates.

See you all later!

MORE INFORMATION:

SUMMARY:

  • ✅ Key Trading Rule: When bears control, wait for a second ladder before going long. When bulls control, wait for a second ladder before shorting.
  • ✅ News & Events: Today’s PCE report had a muted reaction. Next week, Non-Farm Payroll & Powell’s speech will be key market movers.
  • ✅ Seasonality Outlook: Market is tracking well with historical patterns. March and April could bring strong short-covering rallies.
  • ✅ Market Structure: We are at the bottom of the range—a critical decision point for bulls. Key support near 5800.
  • ✅ Trading Plan: Trade high-probability levels as they develop. If price sweeps lows and reclaims range, a long setup could form. If price pushes higher immediately, we wait for the RTH open for clearer setups.


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