ES MES Futures Trading: Key Levels, Tips, Technical Analysis. Friday "AM Briefing"

Preparing ES Emini & MES Micros Traders
For Our Emini and Micros Futures Trading Room



Triple witching Friday brought significant volatility to the ES and MES futures markets, with $4.7 trillion in options and futures expiring. Traders were reminded to evaluate stopouts as signals for possible shifts in market bias, especially during turbulent sessions. One key theme was sticking to a well-defined Battle Plan, as demonstrated by contrasting results from early losses and subsequent wins. Overall, the market remains in a downward pattern, with traders watching for breaks of key liquidity zones. RESOURCES:
            
▶️ Free "Futures Foundations Course"             
▶️ Membership Options      
▶️Youtube Community Updates             
▶️ Website for ES MES Trading Room (Back Up)


TRANSCRIPT:

Welcome ES MES Futures Traders

Welcome to the AM Briefing Video presented by MicrosTrader.com, where together we trade better.

Good morning and happy Friday, March 21st – Triple Witching Day, Option Expiration Day!
This Friday also concludes the Level 10 trading week.

Scripture of the Day

"Do nothing out of rivalry or conceit, but in humility consider others as more important than yourself." – Philippians 2:3

Tip of the Day

We'll dive deeper into this during the review of yesterday’s trading, but the focus today is this:

“Got stopped out – what is it telling you?”

Are you on the wrong side? Should you be switching? It's crucial to assess what the stopout is signaling.

News Drivers

Today is Triple Witching Friday — the simultaneous expiration of stock options, index futures, and stock index options. This occurs quarterly on the third Friday of March, June, September, and December.

Today's expiration affects around $4.7 trillion, so expect increased market activity and volatility.

Looking ahead to next week, news looks pretty normal, except for Friday’s PCE report, which the FOMC gives more weight to than the PCI. We'll be live Tuesday morning and Friday at the opening candle. Grab a free Zoom pass on our website by registering for the Foundations Course at MicrosTrader.com.

Yesterday’s Review

Let's look at the chart, starting back on Wednesday night. I’ve been developing what I call a Battle Plan. White represents potential plays, and green highlights preferred setups. Wednesday, we eyed a short that transitioned into a ladder-back long trade, which became relevant yesterday.

My first trade was a full stop loser with two contracts — a rare move for me to trade in the first six minutes, something I usually avoid. I believed a break under the FOMC wick would bring strong downward momentum. Instead, the market reversed, stopped me out, and I was understandably frustrated.

That was a good moment to reflect: “What is this stopout telling you?”

Later, we broke above a key level from the Battle Plan, and I entered a long with two contracts — that trade did very well. The lesson? Take your loss, take your win, then call it a day.

Thursday Night Battle Plan

Overnight, we saw a clear parabolic move. My plan was to go long if we broke above a certain level and showed a valid retest. I entered long at the front side of a fair value gap, took some heat, got stopped out with a small profit, and waited.

Patience paid off. My preference was a move lower to grab liquidity or a strong breakout. Either would’ve presented opportunity. Once again, the strong level got retested and reacted. I’m done trading in this zone and removed the parabolic trend line.

Indices Outlook

All indices are in the lower distribution, especially visible on the 30-minute chart. Russell is below yesterday’s low, and bulls are looking weak.

ES Chart – Where Are We?

The ES is still laddering down within a chop zone. A breakdown below key levels could mean a drop to the bottom of the range — something I’d welcome. Still waiting to see the FOMC low get taken out.

I’ve plotted several levels for today. If we drop into the red zone, we could see a significant move lower, but as always, the market doesn’t care what I want. I’ll trade what it gives me.

Weekly Trade Summary

Down in the bottom right of the chart, you’ll see the Monday through Thursday results. Thursday had one loser — a front-side Dogee during NY lunch, which bounced 1.75 points (barely missing the 2-point threshold I usually require).

I don't promise 100% wins. We will have losers. Still, this Level 10 week delivered 27 great trades, far more than last week, with increased risk.

Here’s your challenge: Find that front-side Dogee during NY lunch.

See you live 30 minutes before the market opens for mental prep. Stay green, my friends.

MORE INFORMATION:

Keywords:

ES Futures, MES Futures, triple witching, option expiration, battle plan trading, stopout strategy, futures trading psychology, liquidity zones, FOMC wick, parabolic trend line, fair value gap, long/short setups, market volatility, trading discipline, trading review, trade recap, price action, support and resistance, front-side Dogee, trading during lunch, level 10 week, MicrosTrader

SUMMARY:

  • ✅ Triple Witching Friday brings heightened volatility with $4.7 trillion in expirations impacting futures and options markets.
  • ✅ Scripture of the day reminds traders to stay humble and focused on serving others.
  • ✅ A stopout trade serves as a valuable signal — not a failure — to reassess your position and potential setups.
  • ✅ Battle Plan execution played out with one full loser and one strong winner, reinforcing the value of discipline and adaptability.
  • ✅ Overall market structure shows continued laddering down, with potential for deeper moves if key support levels break.


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