Fri AM Briefing: Daily Trade Plan and Price Action Zones for S&P Futures

The final trading day of a highly volatile week coincided with option expiration, prompting caution from seasoned futures traders. The session followed a dramatic overnight gap-up, contrasting sharply with earlier price action and dampening the likelihood of new trade entries. Key levels mapped out in prior sessions played out effectively, with a notable short reaching its deep 5970 target. As market sentiment turns toward next week’s FOMC speaker lineup, traders are advised to reflect on their execution and adherence to defined trade plans.

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📄 TRANSCRIPT

Opening Remarks

Good morning everybody, and happy Friday. It's option expiration and the end of the Level 10 week—Friday, June 19th, episode number 454.

Today marks the last day for our scripture of the week:

"For we do not wrestle against flesh and blood, but against principalities, against powers, against the rulers of the darkness of this age, against spiritual hosts of wickedness in the heavenly places." — Ephesians 6:12

Tip of the Day

We’re sticking with the same theme all week—what is your trade plan for option expiration? Every day this week has brought something unique. Yesterday, for example, we had the trifecta: the day after FOMC, the day before option expiration, and a holiday. Surprisingly, it offered some of the best price action we've seen recently during the RTH session.

Today is option expiration. Given the overnight price action, I most likely won’t be engaging. My DOM will remain closed unless something extraordinary happens. Trade your plan, and I promise—if you consistently trade your trade plan—you will never blow an account.

Price has already moved 80 points from the 5970 level — chasing longs here carries higher risk.

News Drivers and Market Outlook

Today’s news driver was the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index. More importantly, it's the end of a clear Level 10 week. Do you agree? Hit the like button if you think this week was a Level 10. I absolutely believe it was.

What about next week? Jerome Powell will testify twice, and other FOMC speakers will also take the stage. I haven’t even looked at the yellow folder, but it’s safe to say next week will be packed with volatility and great trading opportunities. Hope you’ll join us—let’s make some money.

Essay Format Questions

Has the daily battle plan improved your trade decision-making?
Would you prefer the battle plan to continue in its current format or evolve?

Feedback Request on the Battle Plan

Now, about the battle plan. I’ve been posting the battle plan consistently for four months now. I’m genuinely interested in your feedback: Has it been helpful? Should I double down or pivot? Even if you’re not a member, you've seen it during the AM briefings.

Your input matters. From my perspective, I think it's been valuable. But I need to know if it's been useful for you in your trading decisions.

Trade Review from Wednesday

Let’s back up to Wednesday when we published the battle plan. We identified key levels and mapped out trades. The green arrow was my preferred setup, and the targets extended down to 5970 if we got lucky.

We were looking for a long trade if we broke higher, but I was doubtful. The more likely play was the short—if we took out Sunday’s low, the target was 81, with the dream target at 5970.

That played out beautifully. I personally caught a 10-point move short with one contract. I don’t short with more than one contract—that’s just my rule. We did hit 5970 eventually. Sure, in hindsight I could’ve done more contracts, but it is what it is.

Live Member Trades and Execution Details

If you were live with us, you saw James short and exit at 81. We nailed it down to 70. I went long off 70 and locked in 10 points. Only one contract—it was a knife catch trade.

According to my trade plan, knife catch trades get one contract, then we look to add. But the price action didn’t really support a clean add. We discussed this live—needed to reclaim 88 and then break above the bull/bear line to feel safe.

Because it was a half session, I didn’t want to hold the position through to the close. Too many global variables. I would have needed to be up almost 100 points to justify holding—but we didn’t get that.

Overnight Session and Current Market Conditions

Overnight, we gapped up. We finally got above the bull/bear line, but I didn’t trust the bulls until we could ladder above that level. We camped out in that range, and then suddenly the market ripped higher.

I looked at it and thought: "Are you freaking kidding me? Beautiful long setup—but couldn’t get anything going earlier. Now, hours later, we’re blasting to the moon."

So the odds of me engaging today? Almost zero. It would have to be something so obvious I couldn't ignore it.

Glossary of Key Terms

DOM: Depth of Market — a real-time list of buy/sell orders.
Knife Catch Trade: A counter-trend entry made near a sharp decline's bottom.
Bull/Bear Line: A predefined price level distinguishing bullish from bearish bias.

Chart Review and Key Levels

Let’s step back and review. I treated London and everything that followed as an overnight session. I labeled the low as a "half session RTH low" or even a "holiday session RTH low." You could also call it an "overnight low."

Where are we now? At the overnight high.

Am I interested in shorting here? No. Going long? Also no. If I don’t have a compelling setup, I don’t trade. It’s that simple. It’s OPEX Friday, and price has already shown irrational behavior. Ask yourself: Do you really want to trade this?

Your trade plan should guide you. Mine says: one loss and done, one contract, one trade.

Comparing Markets and Next Steps

Looking at the broader picture, I’m comparing everything to the last full RTH session from Wednesday. Russell is above it. Everyone else is in the middle and above VWAP, which has an aggressive upward angle.

Would I counter that? Absolutely not.

I prefer to short when ES is weak—which was Thursday’s battle plan. Last night, I was hoping for a move to the downside. If we reached the strong support range, I was ready to add. Or if we broke the low and laddered, I was ready to jump in.

But that didn’t happen. We got the gap up.

Final Thoughts and Sign-Off

The only thing left would’ve been a breakout, retest, and long—which already happened. From my 70 entry, we've moved 80 points. That’s not a place I want to be entering long.

Could you take it with one contract? Sure. No single trade should hurt you.

Good luck trading today, and I’ll see my traders live in about 30 minutes.

Stay green, my friends.

To learn more about our group, visit: MicroTrader.com

Futures Trading FAQs from This Session

Q: What was the main trading theme for Friday’s session?
A: It was option expiration, and due to volatile overnight movement and limited setups, the suggested approach was caution—engage only if a high-conviction trade presented itself.

Q: How did the battle plan perform during the week?
A: The battle plan was effective, especially on Wednesday, when a short setup reached the 5970 target with precision.

Q: What’s the guideline for knife catch trades in this strategy?
A: Knife catch trades should be taken with one contract initially, with additional contracts only added if price structure confirms the reversal.