Thursday June 26

In Thursday’s Microtrader.com briefing, the host emphasized a disciplined, long-biased approach to trading the ES futures contract, highlighting the benefits of simplicity in technical analysis. With bulls maintaining multi-session control, traders are encouraged to wait for high-probability long setups, particularly after deep flushes. The unadjusted all-time high at 6166 serves as a key magnet and liquidity level, while sub-13-point opening ranges and index misalignment are cited as signs to avoid trading. Strategic patience and market structure awareness remain the foundation of effective trade execution in this environment.

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📄 TRANSCRIPT

Opening Remarks

Good morning, traders. Welcome to Thursday's AM Briefing. Today we're diving into Episode 458, focusing on key levels in the ES (E-mini S&P 500) and our approach using the MES training system. The central message of this session is simple: keep your trading straightforward, stay patient, and let the market come to you.

Core Trading Philosophy: Keeping It Simple and Easy

The theme that runs through everything today is simplicity. As repeated many times: “Keep your TA simple.” Over-complicating your charts with too many indicators can do more harm than good. The key is to let price action speak and only act when it’s loud and clear.

Another big point: prioritize “easy trading.” That doesn’t mean it’s always easy—it’s something learned the hard way. Fighting price action, chasing entries, or forcing trades? That’s the hard way. The better method is to wait for those big, scary pullbacks—those “flushes”—and then go long as it ladders back. “That’s my favorite. It's super easy if you’ll just wait for those.”

For the ES, the preferred direction is long. Trying to short ES regularly is described as needing “some Tums, maybe a subscription to some Tums from Amazon.” Translation: it’s stressful and rarely optimal. Go with the easier trade.

Market Control and Magnet Levels

Before entering any trade, ask: “Who controls?” Right now, bulls are in control across multiple sessions. Even if they lose grip intra-day, unless there's a clean rejection at a major level, bias remains long. Shorts only make sense when they come from an exceptional location.

The main magnet this week is the unadjusted all-time high at 6166 on the ES chart. Price wants to go there. It’s the biggest liquidity target out there. Once hit, watch how price behaves. Don't just fade it out of habit—observe for signs of continuation or breakdown.

If the first 30 minutes of trading only covers 13 points or less, consider walking away—low volatility equals low reward.

Avoiding Difficult Trading Days: Small Ranges and Misalignment

Here’s a vital trading tip: beware of a small opening range. If the first 30 minutes of trading only covers 13 points or less, consider walking away. “13 to 15 points tends to be the range that is just not worth trading.”

Also, look for index alignment. When ES, NQ, and Dow aren’t moving in the same direction or pattern, it's a red flag. “If we’re not all on the same train,” it often leads to choppy, indecisive movement. Combine that with a small range and you've got a day best avoided.

Yesterday was an example. The speaker said the price action was “so disgusting that I think there were only three core strategy trades—and that’s me being just stupid picky.” Not every day is worth it. Sometimes, the best trade is no trade.

Strategic Trade Setups and Patience

Patience is key. The go-to setup here is waiting for strong pullbacks (flushes), then entering long as the market recovers. These are called “ladder back longs.” When bulls can’t break above resistance, the likely outcome is a deeper pullback to find new buyers. Then comes the real attack on highs.

Watch for the “overnight low” and “RTH halfback.” When these levels hold and price snaps back up, that’s your signal the long bias remains intact.

The bullbear scorecard is another tool used to assess control in real-time. It gives clarity on whether bulls are maintaining grip or starting to lose steam.

The 4550 level serves as a critical bull/bear line today—watch for responsive buying if price tests and holds.

Today’s Key Levels and Tactical Considerations

ES hit the unadjusted all-time high at 6166. That level’s been the magnet and now it’s here—expect erratic behavior around it. Shorts aren’t off the table, but they require a strong rejection first.

The market remains inside a strong multi-day range. A breakdown below that range could trigger a quick drop. Today’s halfback is also the “last two-day POC,” making it a logical level to take profits—“target one.”

If we lose the strong range entirely, this level acts as the first likely bounce spot. The 4550 level is highlighted as a strong bull/bear line—if price drops and finds support there, long setups may emerge again.

Finally, remember the value of trading in a group. “Keep each other safe.” Spotting and confirming logic together helps avoid traps and keeps your mindset in check.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

Q: What is the significance of a 13-point opening range in ES trading?
A: A 13-point or smaller opening range is a signal of low volatility, often leading to choppy price action; traders are advised to skip trading under such conditions.

Q: Why is 6166 considered an important level in today’s market?
A: 6166 is the unadjusted all-time high in ES futures, representing a major liquidity target and acting as a magnet for price action.

Q: What does “ladder back long” mean in this context?
A: “Ladder back long” refers to entering a long trade after a sharp flush, once price begins to stabilize and retrace in alignment with a bullish market structure.