Wed AM Briefing: Get Ready to Trade: Key S&P Futures Prep for Our AM Room

Traders returned to live market conditions on Wednesday after a brief hiatus due to illness, with the focus now squarely on the afternoon’s FOMC announcement. The day’s commentary emphasized preparation and discipline, particularly around defining a trade plan in advance of major news events. Key levels were highlighted using volume profile tools, noting important zones near 5965 POC and a high-interest area between 5916 and 5895.50. Despite recent balance in price action, traders were advised to remain cautious below the bull/bear line at 5920, as price probes could lead to larger directional moves.

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📄 TRANSCRIPT

Opening Remarks

Good morning! It's good to be back today. Yesterday was a sick day for me, and it looks like we are back live and on schedule.

It's Wednesday, June 18th — episode number 453.

"For we do not wrestle against flesh and blood, but against principalities, against powers, against the rulers of the darkness of this age, against spiritual hosts of wickedness in the heavenly places."

Tip of the day: What's your trade plan this week? Are you trading FOMC today, or just watching price action? Decide your plan before the day begins.

Market Context and Economic Events

Because I didn’t do an AM briefing yesterday, I didn’t cover Monday's stats. But here are Tuesday’s stats — and as you can see, the September contract has definitely rolled over. I believe it rolled on Monday, but now you can see how that transition looks.

Today’s big event is the FOMC economic projections. Will they stay the same? Most likely — that seems to be the general bet.

Unemployment claims are set for the bottom of the hour tomorrow. Thursday is a holiday, and Friday is OPEX Friday. So, if you’re looking for a nice long weekend, you’ve got it. Take Thursday off, take Friday off — and I’ll see you back here on Monday.

We will be live this afternoon for the FOMC announcement, Lord willing. If you’d like to join us, I’ll be live about 10 minutes before the announcement so we can watch the fireworks together.

Trade Plan and Chart Review

I missed the AM briefing yesterday because I was sick, but here’s what we were looking at. This trade plan in green was my preferred. Then there was a deeper trade plan — and last night, this is what we were trading.

I was long at 25. Too bad it didn’t behave exactly as I wanted it to, so I wasn’t in that full move. But that was the battle plan trade we had set up, and it’s always fun when those work out well.

Let’s slide into the 30-minute chart and take a look at where we are.

Key Levels and Profile Structure

Let me remove all those drawings first. The 5916 to 5895.50 area is definitely a high-interest zone today. Will we reach it? I don’t know. But if I had to put two levels on your chart, those would be it.

If we were live right now for the FOMC announcement, my eyes would be on that range. Let’s see what happens if we get there.

I’m going to re-organize a few charts and zoom out further. When you miss a day of trading, it’s always smart to zoom out and reassess the full picture.

When you see two RTH highs and lows going down, start drawing a trendline. Does that mean we’re in a downtrend? Not necessarily. If you scroll back and throw on a volume profile from the last gap-up, you can see the most active price levels.

The POC is around 5965. This is back-adjusted — if you don’t back-adjust, your levels may differ. The value area low is around 5947, and the value area high is 5981.50 — beautiful numbers to keep on your chart.

Testing Key Zones and Price Behavior

In balance and chop conditions — say this were a 3-minute chart — we often come back and test the POC. That’s why I’m pointing out those levels. I’d like to see us retest those before breaking out of this area.

Let's throw back on the value area high, low, and POC. We’ve got two beautiful levels, and orders are sitting just underneath. The POC would be a perfect place to test — especially if we get to the value area low. Definitely levels to watch.

If price gets excited near 5916 or 5895 — which I mentioned earlier — it’ll be interesting to see how it reacts at the POC.

Range Context and Halfback Importance

Where are we in relation to yesterday’s range?

We’re currently inside of it. It’s not bearish yet, but we are under the halfback. To me, halfback serves as today’s bull/bear line.

Let’s turn the lights back on and enable our essentials indicator. Make sure halfback is on your chart — that’s your RTH halfback.

Also, turn on all your levels to make sure they’re updated. We’ve got the RTH high, the overnight high, and the RTH low. I was hoping we’d come down to 5916, but we didn’t quite get there.

So what do you do? You trade the levels as they develop.

One of my traders stayed short into last night’s session — very cool. This is the overnight low. We've also got the Asia low and London low. And the RTH low — which has not been tested during the RTH session.

It was tested in overnight, though. I’ll make sure all of these are in the right folder.

Strong Levels and Member Trade Examples

Now let’s turn on our strong levels — these are available to members. These are what I consider the most important levels to have on your chart.

Going into this week, I had the bull/bear line at 5920. I was looking for us to come down, test that, and then ladder back up.

One of our traders, Jackie, was short from last night right around that move. I haven’t gotten an update from him, but we discussed a strategy: if the price dropped into the strong range, move your stop just above that strong level. That way you protect profits.

At one point, I posted that we’d broken a mini trendline and were laddering back up. I went long at 25 — but it was too choppy. I’m a “touch-and-go” trader. Jackie’s short was a nice touch-and-go. If it had been cleaner, I’d still be in that long.

My stop would’ve been about two points behind that strong level. We’re still in major balance — but we’re above the bull/bear line.

We’ve tested it once. If we test it again — will that be the move that finally breaks it? I don’t know. But we’ve softened the ground there. If we break it, we could see a strong move below.

My next strong level is 5970. I’ve noted: "Careful below."

Wrap-Up

Alright, guys. I’m wrapping it up here. I’ll see my traders live 15 minutes before the market opens inside the Zoom room.

Have a good day trading, and I’ll see you this afternoon for the FOMC live stream.

If you’re not a member, I’ll see you soon.

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: How should traders approach FOMC days like today?
A: Have a predefined plan — either trade early and stand aside later, or stay flat until after the announcement. Avoid reacting impulsively.

Q: What are the most important price levels to watch today?
A: Watch the POC at 5965, value area low at 5947, and high-interest support zones at 5916 and 5895.50. Also monitor the bull/bear line around 5920.

Q: How do you handle balance zones and chop conditions?
A: Use volume profile structure to identify high-probability retest areas like POC and value edges. In choppy zones, prefer touch-and-go setups and avoid overtrading.