Thursday July 31, 2025

Q: What is the significance of the battle plan in the trading strategy?

The battle plan maps out potential trades and target levels the night before. It guides traders on where price is likely to bounce or be attracted to, emphasizing adherence to stop-loss placement and runner management for maximizing gains.

Q: What is a sandwich day in the context of trading, and what implications does it have?

A sandwich day sits between two major economic events, like post-FOMC and pre-NFP. It is often treated as a low-probability or no-trade day due to erratic price behavior and uncertainty, encouraging traders to focus on only the most disciplined setups.

Q: What is the core strategy mentioned for 3-minute Thursday and how does it relate to the battle plan?

The 3-minute Thursday strategy emphasizes quick core entries at the first three bounce levels taught in the group. It complements the broader battle plan by providing tactical intraday entries that align with pre-mapped levels and market structure.

Thursday’s AM Briefing stressed disciplined trade management following volatile post-FOMC price action. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures reached new all-time highs on the back of strong Meta and Microsoft earnings, creating short squeeze dynamics. The speaker highlighted the importance of structured battle plans and strict stop-loss discipline after a mismanaged trade cost a potential 100-point move. With non-farm payroll looming, traders were urged to treat the day as a low-probability “sandwich day” and exercise caution.

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☀️ AM BRIEFING

Opening Remarks

The Thursday AM Briefing (Episode 482) begins with a guiding scripture from Colossians: "Whatever you do, do it enthusiastically as something done for the Lord and not for men." This sets a tone of dedication and purpose for trading activities, emphasizing a disciplined and focused mindset.

"Whatever you do, do it enthusiastically as something done for the Lord and not for men."

Core Philosophy and Trading Principles

A central principle highlighted is understanding price behavior. The speaker notes: "We know where price is going to bounce and where it is likely attracted to go, which honestly is the whole purpose behind the battle plan I publish each evening." This underscores the importance of pre-market preparation and having a structured “battle plan” for identifying entry and exit points.

The speaker explicitly states a cautious approach to market predictions: "I don't predict. I don't do predictions like that. I don't find them fruitful or helpful." Instead, the focus is on identifying "where I want to engage in price."

Market Overview and Key Drivers (July 31st)

Date: Thursday, 31st July, "the day after FOMC."
Significance of Day After FOMC: The speaker warns this day "can often be more violent" in market movements.
Economic Data:
- PCE & Unemployment Claims: Scheduled for the bottom of the hour. PCE often has "no reaction" despite being a red folder event, while the beige book (yellow folder) can have more impact.
- Non-Farm Payroll: Coming tomorrow (1st August).
"Sandwich Day": Termed "the day after FOMC and the day before non-farm payroll," the speaker advises: "Today and tomorrow you should really take off."
Earnings:
- Meta & Microsoft: "Blew it out of the water last night taking us to all-time highs."
- Apple & Amazon: Scheduled for today, referred to as "the big boys."
Market Indices:
- ES (S&P 500 futures): Reached a "new all-time high" overnight and remains "the big magnet." The speaker notes, "Rarely do we leave an all-time high in the overnight session. It is certainly an RTH magnet."
- NQ (Nasdaq 100 futures): Also at an "all-time high."
- Russell & Dow: "Not participating," showing divergence but not affecting ES and NQ momentum.
Short Squeeze/FOMO: The big moves in Meta and Microsoft created "short squeeze FOMO buying," identified as "the launching pad to getting to the all-time high after a nice big scary vomit."

Trade Analysis and Lessons Learned (FOMC Trade)

The core of the briefing centers on a specific trade from the FOMC session. The speaker calls it a "low-cost tuition" or "no costition except opportunity cost."

The Mapped-Out Trade: The battle plan had the setup: "The map out had us going below, getting on top, getting on top." The target was the all-time high.
Entry Strategy: The desired entry was to "undercut this strong level, get back over the top of it, and then go go go."
Execution and Mistakes:
- Initial Entry: Entered the trade and captured four points.
- Failed Follow-Through: The move "got over the top and failed," which the speaker accepts as part of trading: "You got to expect that to happen from time to time. No big deal."
- Missed Opportunity: Later, after multiple "Failed to make a new low" observations, the speaker took a long off 73 being aggressive.
- Critical Error – Stop Management: The mistake came from "moving the stop." Initially at 64, moved to 75, then to 76, where it was triggered. The speaker calls this "amateur hour" and failing to follow rules.
Impact of Poor Management: The decision "cost me actually probably an easy 100 pointer. We almost made 100 points in the overnight." Expressing frustration: "I did not manage my trade properly and it just frustrates me to no end because this is the trade I look for."
Key Lesson on Runner Management: The takeaway is to keep "that runner back" with either a wide stop or move to break-even and "remove your hands, close your trading platform, and go." The speaker notes missing "the 100 pointer today, 100 pointer last week, and the 100 pointer the week before" due to this recurring issue.
Trader Error: The speaker admits, "That was a trader error. You did not trade your trade plan for that."

Yesterday’s high is the most important level today. If price gets back under range, things could get very interesting.

Daily Focus and Recommendations

"No Trade Day" Recommendation: Given it’s "sandwich day," the speaker advises caution: "Today and tomorrow you should really take off."
Focus on Price Action: For those who must trade, focus on "our three-minute core strategy entries today."
Avoid Shorting: With the market’s momentum driven by tech earnings, the speaker emphasizes, "You can't short this. You can't long this." And later reiterates avoiding shorts entirely.
End-of-Month/Quarter Bonuses: A quick note about traders pushing for bonuses influencing market behavior.

Group Resources and Call to Action

Battle Plan: Daily plans published each evening to identify bounce and attraction levels.
First Take-Profit: Recommended at known bounce levels.
Three-Minute Core Strategy Entries: Core bounce level strategy taught in the group.
Trial Offer: A "7-day trial to having them mapped out the night before" is available at Microtrader.com (click battle plan).

❓ FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the overall purpose of the AM Briefing?
A: The AM Briefing serves as a daily pre-market analysis session for traders, offering insights into potential trading opportunities and market dynamics. It reviews previous trades from the “battle plan,” covers key economic events, and highlights critical price levels to help traders prepare with disciplined strategies.

Q: What is the significance of the "battle plan" in the trading strategy?
A: The "battle plan" maps out potential trades and target levels the night before. It guides traders on where price is likely to bounce or be attracted to, emphasizing adherence to stop-loss placement and runner management for maximizing gains.

Q: Why is proper trade management, especially with stop-losses, so important?
A: Proper trade management ensures that well-researched setups can reach their full potential. Maintaining initial stop-losses and avoiding premature adjustments protects trades from being cut short, allowing runners to capture large moves and preventing common “amateur hour” mistakes.

Q: What are the key market drivers and economic events discussed for the trading day?
A: The day after FOMC, PCE data, unemployment claims, and major earnings reports such as Apple and Amazon are noted as drivers. The session is also marked as a “sandwich day” ahead of non-farm payrolls, emphasizing caution due to heightened uncertainty.

Q: What is a "sandwich day" in the context of trading, and what implications does it have?
A: A "sandwich day" sits between two major economic events, like post-FOMC and pre-NFP. It is often treated as a low-probability or no-trade day due to erratic price behavior and uncertainty, encouraging traders to focus on only the most disciplined setups.

Q: How do all-time highs influence trading decisions?
A: All-time highs act as magnets for price, especially in overnight sessions. They suggest strong bullish momentum, but chasing trades at those levels is discouraged; instead, the focus is on mapped-out pullback setups aligned with the trend.

Q: What is the core strategy mentioned for "3-minute Thursday" and how does it relate to the battle plan?
A: The “3-minute Thursday” strategy emphasizes quick core entries at the first three bounce levels taught in the group. It complements the broader battle plan by providing tactical intraday entries that align with pre-mapped levels and market structure.

Q: What is the overall trading philosophy regarding predictions and biases?
A: The philosophy rejects market predictions and directional biases, focusing instead on identifying precise engagement levels based on technical setups. This approach centers on pre-planned trades and actual price action rather than speculative forecasts.

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