Tuesday July 29, 2025

Q: What is the current seasonality trend and how is it playing out in the market?

July is demonstrating an up up and away seasonal trend, reflected in the bullish chart action. This supports a bias toward long setups, aligning with the mapped-out battle plan long discussed in the briefing.

In Tuesday’s AM Briefing, Microtrader.com’s George explored the trade-off between rigid trading rules and acting on pre-planned opportunities outside regular hours. A missed late-session ES long illustrated the opportunity cost of prioritizing time discipline over a mapped trade setup, sparking discussion on potential adjustments. The session highlighted key economic drivers, including JOLTS data, Consumer Confidence, and the upcoming FOMC meeting expected to increase volatility, alongside critical ES levels with 16 marked as the bull/bear pivot. George concluded with a journaling exercise on improving trade exits and grounded the session in a message of purposeful trading inspired by Colossians 3:23.

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☀️ AM BRIEFING

Opening Remarks

The Tuesday AM Briefing [Ep 480] from Microtrader.com focuses on trading philosophy, market drivers, technical analysis, and journaling prompts. George opens the session by sharing a scripture: Colossians 3:23, “Whatever you do, do it enthusiastically as something done for the Lord and not for men.” This sets a tone of discipline and purpose throughout the briefing.

Trading Philosophy: Discipline vs. Opportunity

A central theme is the tension between maintaining strict trading hours and taking “mapped out trades” when they occur outside of those hours. George shares a personal experience of facing this dilemma late in the session. A “mapped out battle plan long” trade presented itself in the last minutes of the day, just before market close.

George explains the internal debate: on one hand, adhering to rules — “Nope, my trading hours are this to this and that to that and I don’t take any trade outside of it.” On the other, following the rule of conviction — “if my mapped out trade happens, take the trade with confidence.” He expresses regret for skipping the opportunity, saying, “boy looking at the price action overnight I questioned my decision to not take my mapped out battle plan trade.”

The missed trade resulted in a 10-point push and a beautiful lading sequence overnight that could have led to approximately 24 points. This becomes a case study in opportunity cost and prompts George to consider adjusting his approach to mapped-out trades occurring during non-trading hours.

Market Drivers and Volatility Outlook

The briefing highlights the key market catalysts for the week. Tuesday’s drivers include JOLTS and Consumer Confidence data, with an expectation for normal morning action followed by a dull afternoon. Wednesday’s FOMC meeting is referred to as “the show,” expected to spark significant volatility beginning tomorrow afternoon.

Earnings season is also in focus, with reports from Meta, Microsoft, and Amazon later in the week. George notes that Microtrader.com will host live YouTube streams 30 minutes after the market opens today and during the FOMC release tomorrow afternoon.

Technical Analysis and Key Levels (ES Chart)

George reviews the ES chart and identifies critical levels. He notes that July seasonality is historically bullish, describing it as “July is up up and away.”

The mapped out long was initially planned for Sunday night, and the opportunity materialized late Monday. The market executed a push up and a back test into the level. Overnight, a “beautiful lading sequence” confirmed the level’s significance.

He observes divergence across indices: the Nasdaq (NQ) tagged its all-time high, the ES lagged behind, and the Dow stayed inside its prior range around the halfback, signaling potential chop in today’s session.

The most critical level for the day is identified as 16. As long as we stay above 16…I believe you should be long focused. Below 16, I think we’re going to come deeper and grab one of our other battle plan trades.

Reviewing Monday’s session, George notes the small opening range as a clue to expect no breakout. The market followed through, gradually laddering down and closing near the Point of Control (POC).

Essay Format Questions

Where did you show improvement in your trade exits?

"Whatever you do, do it enthusiastically as something done for the Lord and not for men." — Colossians 3:23

❓ FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS

Trader FAQ

Q: What is the core philosophy of MicroTrader.com's approach to trading?
A: MicroTrader.com encourages an enthusiastic and dedicated approach to trading, viewing it as something done for a higher purpose rather than solely for personal gain. This philosophy is anchored in Colossians 3:23, promoting discipline, thorough planning, and confidence in executing well-thought-out strategies.

Q: How does MicroTrader.com address the challenge of trading outside of designated trading hours?
A: The tip of the day acknowledges the dilemma between strict trading schedules and taking mapped-out trades outside regular hours. MicroTrader.com emphasizes that if a mapped-out battle plan trade presents itself, it should be taken with confidence, highlighting flexibility and prioritizing well-researched plans over rigid timing.

Q: What are the key market events and earnings reports to watch out for this week?
A: The FOMC meeting mid-week is expected to drive significant volatility, especially from Wednesday afternoon. Today’s drivers include JOLTS and Consumer Confidence data, while major earnings from Meta, Microsoft, and Amazon later in the week are anticipated to add further market movement.

Q: Why is journaling trade exits considered a crucial aspect of improvement?
A: Journaling exits allows traders to refine a key micro-skill: managing profitable trades and minimizing losses. By focusing specifically on exits, traders can incrementally improve discipline and risk management, which are critical for long-term success.

Q: What is the current seasonality trend and how is it playing out in the market?
A: July is demonstrating an “up up and away” seasonal trend, reflected in the bullish chart action. This supports a bias toward long setups, aligning with the mapped-out battle plan long discussed in the briefing.

Q: What was the "trade of the day" discussed in the briefing, and what were its key characteristics?
A: The trade of the day was a mapped-out battle plan long identified on Sunday night, which presented itself in the final minutes of Monday’s session. The setup produced a rapid 10-point move followed by an overnight lading sequence that could yield roughly 24 points, illustrating the value of executing pre-planned trades with confidence.

Q: How did different market indices perform, and what does this suggest about the current market?
A: The Nasdaq hit an all-time high, while the Dow stayed within its prior range and the ES lagged, showing divergence between indices. This mixed performance suggests potential chop and lack of unified direction across the market.

Q: What is the most important price level to watch today, and what are its implications for trading strategy?
A: The critical price level is 16, marked as the bull/bear line. Staying above 16 supports a long bias, while dropping below signals potential deeper pullbacks and alternate bearish trade setups.