Tuesday October 28, 2025

Markets continue their parabolic ascent, with the Dow and other indices reaching record highs, reinforcing the dominant theme: “Bulls control.” In this context, the AM Briefing by Micros Trader warns that shorting remains a counter-trend strategy requiring extreme caution and tight risk parameters. A detailed case study demonstrated how even ideal short setups must be approached with the expectation of small or break-even outcomes. As traders brace for an FOMC meeting and a significant wave of earnings, the challenge remains psychological—maintaining composure and discipline in the face of a relentless bull run.

☀️ AM BRIEFING

Opening Remarks

The market is currently defined by a powerful and persistent bull trend, summarized by the core thesis: “Bulls control.” This isn’t just an opinion—it’s supported by strong evidence such as the Dow Jones Industrial Average reaching new all-time highs and the market’s parabolic upward trajectory, including a large weekly gap.

Any attempt to short the market in this environment is considered a high-risk counter-trend strategy that requires exceptional discipline and meticulous risk management. The briefing emphasizes that counter-trend shorts should be kept "small if at all", that traders must never add to losing trades, and that a break-even trade is a win when trading against the trend.

A case study of a specific short trade illustrates this mindset: even a well-planned counter-trend setup executed at a smart location should have, at worst, resulted in a break-even. The briefing concludes that large losses aren’t caused by market direction—but by poor trade management.

Looking forward, the market faces important catalysts: an upcoming FOMC meeting, earnings reports from 23% of the S&P 500, and key macroeconomic data. These events could either extend the current rally or derail it. Lastly, the AM Briefing touches on the psychological difficulty of holding winning trades in strong markets and argues for a programmatic, rules-based approach to maximize gains.

Bulls Control: The Dominant Market Narrative

The overarching theme of the current market is unmistakable bullish dominance. This is not subtle—it’s visible through persistent upward moves and energy at every support level.

The Dow is “crushing its all-time high in the overnight session.”
Price has not even retraced to a typical short-term level like the 50% halfback.
Support zones are responding strongly. “Every level that can bounce price to the North, it’s bouncing it to the North—and doing it with some energy.”
The sentiment is that “the bull train is gonna continue” unless disrupted by a major external force.

Micros Trader underscores this belief throughout the AM Briefing, punctuated by the emphatic refrain: “Bulls control, baby. Bulls control.”

The High-Risk Nature of Counter-Trend Trading

In this bullish environment, all shorts are categorized as counter-trend trades and should be approached cautiously.

Rule	Description	Quote
Position Sizing	Keep positions small or avoid entirely	“small if at all”
Managing Losses	Never add to losing trades	“never making things worse”
Defining a Win	Break-even trades are wins	“a break even trade when you are counter is a winning trade”
Loss Management	Small losses are normal; big ones are from poor discipline	“Small losses happened. Large losses are created.”

Micros Trader reminds traders to first identify who’s in control before even considering a trade against the trend: “You have to know who controls which direction is counter.”

Case Study: Counter-Trend Short – Battle Plan Trade #1

The briefing analyzes a specific short trade idea to drive home the principles of disciplined counter-trend trading.

Micros Trader described a plan involving a price "pop near the expected range and a ladder back inside the range." Two limit orders were used to attempt this setup:

An initial entry at 6918, missed by a single tick.
A second attempt at 6912, near the second ladder level, touched but not filled.

Had the trade been filled, it would’ve used a tight stop—about 3 points. There was no expectation of a home run—only tight risk and break-even management. A minor gain or scratch was the plan.

The conclusion? Even if the trade had been taken, it should have been a “clean, crisp, breakeven trade.” The setup was legitimate, but its counter-trend nature demanded rigid risk parameters.

Current Market Conditions and Catalysts

The technical landscape is extremely bullish, but upcoming events could introduce volatility or reversals.

Parabolic Move: Price is accelerating sharply to the upside.
Weekly Gap: A huge bullish gap signals power behind the move.
Range Breakout: The market has broken out of a two-week consolidation. As noted, “when it blasts off, it blasts off.”

However, Micros Trader notes this might be a "no trade week" due to the overwhelming bullish structure paired with potential disruptions.

Upcoming events:

FOMC Meeting – dubbed “the show.”
Economic Reports – Richmond Manufacturing Index, Consumer Confidence.
Earnings – 23% of the S&P 500 will report.

Key levels being monitored: SPX 6983, 6990, and the psychological level at 7000.

Trading Psychology: Discipline in Trend Markets

The AM Briefing closes with an important discussion on trading psychology—specifically, the difficulty of holding winners in a trending market.

A story is shared about “Matt,” a new trader who mentally entered a long, captured 200 points, then exited. While profitable, the emotional reaction to exit early highlights a common problem: even on imaginary trades, traders can’t hold.

Micros Trader emphasizes the solution: rules-based, programmatic management. For example, “move your stop five points behind the RTH low” and let it ride. That’s how to stay in a runner.

Traders are reminded that exiting early cuts off the most profitable part of strong trend trades. Holding a “runner” is essential when entering at the bottom of a range ahead of a breakout.

❓ FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS

Futures Trading – Key Market Q&A

Q: Who is currently in control of the market, and what is the key rule for traders considering short positions?

A: The bulls firmly control the market and are making new all-time highs. Therefore, shorts are counter trades. The strategy for counter-trading is to trade small, if at all, never making things worse, as a break-even trade when you are counter is considered a winning trade.

Q: What major economic events are scheduled for the current week that could impact the ongoing bull trend?

A: This week includes the manufacturing Richmond index and consumer confidence reports. The main event is the FOMC meeting scheduled for tomorrow, and approximately 23% of the S&P is reporting earnings this week.

Q: If a trader were mentally holding a profitable long position through a breakout from a long-term range, what specific stop management advice was given?

A: While taking a 200-point profit is acknowledged as nice, the recommended discipline is to continually follow the trading program. Specifically, this involves moving the stop five points under the RTH low and allowing the trade to continue, especially since the market is in a parabolic move to the North.