Thursday Nov 20: S&P Futures Roadmap: Today’s Key Levels and Room Strategy
ES EMINI KEY LEVELS AND SETUPS
Thursday November 20, 2025
Today's AM Briefing by Micros Trader analyzed the ES and MES futures markets amid heightened volatility caused by delayed NFP data, Nvidia earnings, and Walmart reports. The briefing emphasized a trading philosophy rooted in discipline, urging traders to wait for confirmation rather than act on mere price movement. Following a strong NFP release, the market broke into a new tradable range, prompting a live long trade targeting the Initial Balance high. The session also covered YouTube channel strategy, reaffirming a focus on quality over quantity for instructional content.
Opening Remarks
Micros Trader opens the AM Briefing by emphasizing the importance of discipline and patience in trading. He sets the tone by stating that just because the market is moving doesn’t mean it’s your turn to act. “It can be frustrating... but waiting is the only answer. And knowing when not to trade is so critical to your success.” This philosophy underscores the entire session, framing the market as volatile but not necessarily tradable until certain conditions align.
Core Trading Philosophy: Discipline and Patience
Micros Trader reaffirms that trading success depends less on technical precision and more on emotional control and timing. He mentions that, due to the convergence of high-impact events, such as earnings and delayed data releases, he made a conscious decision not to publish a battle plan the night before. The volatility was simply too undefined to warrant strategic guidance at that time.
He reminds traders: “The market will try to bait you with movement. But movement doesn’t equal opportunity. Let the market come to your setup.”
Key Market Drivers and Context
Several major events were in play during the session:
- Delayed Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) data: Released live during the session, it came in significantly stronger than forecast.
- Forecast: 53,000
- Actual: 119,000
- Unemployment Rate: 4.4%
- Nvidia (NVDA) earnings: Contrary to widespread fears, Nvidia’s post-earnings reaction had not yet “tanked the market.”
- Walmart (WMT) earnings: Micros Trader emphasized that Walmart's report might be more indicative of broader economic health than Nvidia’s, referring to Walmart as a gauge for the “everyday American guy.”
Micros Trader also revisits recent performance, noting a 100-point trade from the previous day, his seventh such trade of the year toward a personal goal of ten. Another potential 100-point setup had to be scaled back to a 10-point win due to risk ahead of the Nvidia earnings release.
Technical Analysis and Market Structure
Pre-NFP: “No Man’s Land”
Before the NFP data release, the market was described as being in "no man's land"—an ambiguous area with no high-probability entries. Despite a strong move up the previous day, the broader structure continued to “ladder down” with lower highs and lower lows.
Micros Trader outlined two primary zones for potential high-quality trades:
- A bullish zone about 60 points below the current price
- A bearish zone about 60 points above the current price
Without a decisive move into either zone, the morning began with no active bias.
Post-NFP Price Action and New Range Formation
The NFP release brought a sudden surge in volatility, breaking the market out of "no man's land" and into a newly defined range.
- Identified Range: Bottom around 57–58.75; Top around 67–89.50
- Price Reaction: The market immediately pushed into the bottom of this range, then hovered there, confirming its significance.
Micros Trader explained that this “dance” at the range bottom confirmed the level’s legitimacy, which then served as a reference point for trade setups.
Live Trade Execution
Micros Trader provided live commentary during trade execution, sharing his process in real time:
- Initial Long Entry (Stopped Out): A small long was taken at the range bottom with a tight one-point stop. The trade was quickly stopped out, but Micros Trader brushed it off, calling it a “paper cut” meant to test the level's defense.
- Reassessment: Instead of re-entering immediately, he waited for a strong bullish candle to close back inside the range. He interpreted the price consolidating just below the level as added confirmation of support.
- Final Long Entry: With bullish confirmation, he entered again. The primary target was the Initial Balance (IB) high, a level within the newly established range. The trade was managed actively within his private group as the AM Briefing ended.
YouTube Channel Management
Micros Trader addressed a viewer’s question about content strategy:
- AM Briefings: These are “short-term content” videos and are often unlisted within a few hours. He believes that irrelevant or low-viewed videos can harm the channel's algorithmic performance.
- Live Streams: More live stream recordings will be kept available in response to community feedback, especially for those considering membership.
- Recap Videos: All recap content is permanent and available under the “Videos” tab. These are designed to be evergreen learning material.
COMMON QUESTIONS FOR MES MICROS FUTURES TRADERS
Question 1: What is the most crucial skill for a new futures trader to master for success?
Answer: The most critical skill is knowing when not to trade. Just because the market is moving does not mean it is your move or your turn, and sometimes waiting is the only answer. While drawing levels that balance price is important, discipline about when to stay out of the market is paramount.
Question 2: How should a trader approach market zones that are difficult to analyze, especially when major news is approaching?
Answer: If the market is in a position considered “no man’s land,” it is better to avoid trading because it is nearly impossible to craft a battle plan there. This location is particularly dangerous when combined with news drivers like non-farm payroll or corporate earnings, and often the best advice is simply “don’t trade here.”
Question 3: If a trader enters a position in an aggressive or uncertain scenario, such as right after a major economic announcement, how can they manage their risk?
Answer: In uncertain conditions, such as during a non-farm payroll announcement, a trader can use a paper cut stop loss—a very small stop loss—and demand that the price performs to the tick immediately. This approach allows the trader to exit quickly if the trade does not instantly move in the intended direction.
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