CPI TRADE PLAN and AM Briefing
CPI Trade Plan
Thursday December 18, 2025
Traders navigated a volatile session shaped by a surprise CPI print of 2.7%, well below the 3.1% forecast, leading to a sharp bullish spike. Despite this reaction, technical indicators and market structure suggest that bears remain in control, with the current rally viewed as a potential lower high. Micros Trader emphasized discipline, especially in time frame selection and pre-planned entries, highlighting a successful 40-point long trade executed overnight based on a defined "Battle Plan." The session reinforced that in high-volatility environments, psychological readiness and adherence to structured trade plans are critical for consistent performance.📖 AM Briefing: CPI Day Navigation & Strong Level Defense
Today's briefing covers a critical Level 10 trading day featuring CPI announcement, pre-NFP positioning, and contract rollover week complexities. We review overnight battle plan trades that delivered 40+ points, discuss the importance of timeframe discipline, and analyze strong level structure that continues to provide excellent trade opportunities. Bears maintain control, but bulls defended key levels overnight—the question is whether they can reclaim higher strong levels after CPI.
- Test All Things, Hold What's Good: This week's scripture from First Thessalonians reminds us to test everything in our trading approach and keep only what works. This philosophy directly applies to Section 13 of the Trade Plan Builder—map out your timeframes ahead of time and avoid the trap of chart surfing. Many traders get into trouble dropping down from the 3-minute to the 1-minute chart hunting for trades. Within a week, they're back saying they need to return to the 3-minute. Be explicit about your primary timeframe and when you'll use confirmations.
- Level 10 Week Continues: Today marks CPI day, the day before option expiration, on contract rollover week—that's about as Level 10 as it gets. CPI came in at 2.7% versus the 3.1% forecast, with unemployment exactly as expected. We were live for the announcement and will continue monitoring price action throughout the session. This is maximum risk territory requiring disciplined preparation.
- Overnight Battle Plans Delivered: Battle Plan 1 and 2 from last night played out beautifully. The key was waiting for price to reach the strong level around 6018-6012 where bulls needed to defend. Price spent 13 HOURS defending that level before erupting higher. Battle Plan 2 called for trapping traders off the RTH low and laddering back—it delivered a textbook core strategy entry that gained 40+ points to the apex. If you took those trades from the overnight session, congratulations on excellent execution.
- Strong Levels Provide Structure: Mario, one of our newest members, made a great observation: "It's amazing to look at the chart and see the simplicity with the strong levels." These levels offer genuine structure to your trading. Yesterday's action proved this again—beautiful bounces at every strong level. The best way to trade is simply to wait for price to reach these levels, then make your decision. That's why I publish them every week and design battle plans around them.
- Post-CPI Positioning Decision: For anyone long from overnight battle plans with 20-40 points of profit, you faced an interesting choice at CPI. The trade wasn't far enough away from entry to confidently hold through the announcement. Smart money takes the profit and steps back. However, if you traded multiple contracts using our three-contract system and had built-in profit protection, holding a runner made sense—you couldn't get hurt even if it took the Asia low. Moving stops to just behind the strong range at 6804-6805 locks in profit while giving the trade room to breathe.
- Bears Still Control—Don't Get Fooled: Let's be real here. The bull-bear line is 130 points away. We're below declining anchored VWAPs from significant pivot points. This could just be another lower high in the sequence. Yes, bulls defended that critical level beautifully, but they need to reclaim multiple strong levels above to shift control. Until then, longs remain cautious. See money, take money. Don't let one beautiful bounce convince you the trend has reversed.
- Three-Contract Management Pays Off: To whoever was short yesterday (Andrew, was that you?)—go back and review that trade. If you'd held a single runner following our three-contract system, how much more profit would you have captured when we hit the magnet down at those strong levels? You still had an excellent exit, but this exercise shows the power of proper position management. It often matters more than perfect entries, especially for prop firm evaluations.
- Prioritize Green Over Greed: I really wanted to be long last night from Battle Plan 2, but after trading for seven hours yesterday, I was exhausted. Trading requires your best self. I wasn't at my best, so I went to bed rather than try to wait it out or place a blind limit order. Sometimes the best trade is no trade. There will always be more opportunities if you preserve capital and energy.
- The Simplicity of Waiting: All you have to do is wait. All you have to do is wait for price to reach your planned levels. There are more trades coming, more entries ahead. Discipline means following your battle plan, not chasing or forcing trades because you feel like you "should" be in the market. The strong levels give you structure—use them.
- Get Tomorrow's Trades Tonight: Visit microtrader.com and click battle to access your battle plan. We map out high-probability setups every night so you can trade with confidence instead of emotion. Yesterday's review is available complimentary (for now—deciding on continuation in the new year), and tonight's battle plan will be ready for you before the session opens.
Opening Remarks
Micros Trader opened the AM Briefing by setting the tone for what was expected to be a highly volatile trading day, noting that this week qualifies as a “level 10 week.” This designation stemmed from a confluence of major market-moving events, including the Consumer Price Index (CPI) release, the upcoming non-farm payroll report, option expirations, and contract rollovers. The day’s strategy was anchored in strict discipline and a pre-planned approach built around proprietary “Battle Plans” and well-defined “Strong Levels.”
Market Context: CPI Release and Immediate Reaction
The CPI data came in at 2.7%, significantly below the expected 3.1%. This surprise reading caused an immediate bullish spike in the market, described as a "straight up candle." Unemployment data, however, came in line with expectations.
Despite the bullish reaction, Micros Trader emphasized that the broader structure of the market remained bearish. The rally was viewed as potentially forming a lower high in a larger downtrend. The firm message was that bulls did not yet control the market, and any long trades should be treated as counter-trend.
The “Test All Things” Principle
Micros Trader introduced the core philosophical theme for the day using a scriptural reference: "test all things, hold on to what is good" from First Thessalonians. This principle was applied to trading via the “Trade Plan Builder,” a process-driven framework for identifying and executing quality trades.
Special attention was given to Section 12 (defining and avoiding bad trades) and Section 13 (determining appropriate time frames). This approach underscores the importance of filtering out noise and sticking to strategies that have been thoroughly tested.
Time Frame Discipline
Micros Trader warned against the tendency of “chart surfing”—jumping between time frames in search of trades. This behavior often leads to overtrading and increased risk.
Traders were urged to explicitly define their primary chart (commonly the 3-minute chart) and only deviate from it under pre-approved conditions. The only valid use case for dropping to a 1-minute chart is when a clear and clean level is identified on the 3-minute chart, allowing for a “greedier” entry with a tighter stop. However, this tactic must be part of a pre-planned approach—not an impulsive decision.
Trader Psychology and Personal Limits
Micros Trader candidly shared that he had missed the overnight long opportunity (Battle Plan 2) due to exhaustion. This served as a reminder that trading requires peak cognitive performance.
He emphasized the importance of patience, stating, "All you have to do is wait." Profit management principles were also reviewed, specifically, "Prioritize green over greed." The concept of using a “three contract management system” was revisited to show how a runner contract could have significantly improved prior trade outcomes.
Technical Focus: Strong Levels and Battle Plan Execution
The strategy revolves around identifying “Strong Levels” and building “Battle Plans” around them. These levels are pre-defined price zones that offer structure and simplicity. One trader, Mario, commented, "It's amazing to look at the chart and see the simplicity with the strong levels."
Traders were advised to wait for price to reach these levels before making decisions. As an example of how effective this can be, Micros Trader referenced how the market defended a key level for 13 hours the previous day.
Three specific Battle Plans were reviewed:
- Battle Plan 1: A small long on a backtest after a break above a level — not triggered first.
- Battle Plan 2: A long from the RTH low that triggered overnight — successfully executed, resulting in a 40-point gain.
- Battle Plan 3: A long from much lower — not reached.
Battle Plan 2 was described as “beautiful,” offering a clean and profitable entry in line with the core strategy.
CPI Live Analysis and Market Outlook
After the CPI release, the market surged but later pulled back to a critical area between 18 and 12. This level was deemed essential for bulls to defend to maintain momentum. Micros Trader made it clear that despite the rally, the broader bias remains bearish.
Technical indicators reinforced this bearish view:
- The "bull/bear line" remains 130 points above the current price.
- Anchored VWAP from the last major high is sloping downward, and price remains beneath it.
Micros Trader reiterated that the current bullish movement should be viewed with caution and that long trades are still counter-trend. The mantra remains: "See money, take money."
Forward Scenarios and Next Steps
Two forward-looking paths were discussed:
- Bullish Scenario: Bulls must reclaim multiple Strong Levels in succession.
- Bearish Scenario: Failure to hold the 18–12 area could lead to revisiting overnight lows or targeting Battle Plan 3.
For traders currently flat, the plan is to wait until the regular session opens and map out new entries based on post-CPI price action.
Comments
Post a Comment