Tuesday Dec 30: Get Ready to Trade: Key S&P Futures Prep for Our AM Room
BEST ES EMINI SETUPS
Tuesday December 30, 2025
Micros Trader opened Tuesday’s AM Briefing with a firm reminder to traders to commit to avoiding big losses by refusing to move stops or add to losing trades. The ES futures market is currently in a consolidation phase following a clear laddering down structure, and traders were advised to wait for a decisive move before initiating new positions. Battle Plan 1 emphasized a shallow pullback zone near 44–43, with a ladder back above key levels potentially validating long setups. With the POC and bull/bear lines acting as magnets, the market remains range-bound, requiring patience until breakout conditions emerge.
📖 AM Briefing Overview & Key Points - December 30th
Tuesday's briefing focuses on navigating the current consolidation phase after ES laddered down, with FOMC minutes this afternoon and a shortened holiday week ahead. The core message: pledge to never take a big loss by refusing to add to losers or move your stops. Battle plan analysis emphasizes the bull-bear line acting as a magnet, with key levels at 6044-6043 defended and opportunities developing on breakouts from this range.
- Trade Plan Section 18 - The Big Loss Pledge: Make a personal commitment to never take a big loss. As traders, we want small wins, small losses, and big wins—the one category you absolutely don't want is a big loss. How do they happen? Two ways: (1) adding to a losing trade, and (2) moving your stop further away. Pledge to yourself right now that you will never do either of these things. Write it down and commit to it.
- Week Structure & Events: FOMC minutes release this afternoon. Wednesday is likely a half day, Thursday is closed for the holiday, and Friday may or may not have coverage. These built-in four-day weekends provide a refreshing break. Live streaming today with the battle plan unlocked for everybody on YouTube.
- Current Market Pattern: We're clearly laddering down and now in a consolidation phase. The ES tends to move in a direction, then hangs out before moving another direction. Right now it looks like an "L"—we've moved down and now we're consolidating sideways. Which way will it bust? Nobody knows for certain, so we need to be ready for both scenarios.
- Previous Battle Plan Success: Battle plan from Wednesday concluded with 190 points—really nice work. The formula: enter 5-10 points under each low, hold, hold, hold, and eventually it gets you. Yesterday's short from battle plan two at 40 points is still technically in play, with stops 5-10 points above the RTH high. None of this is hindsight—it's all published before the trading day.
- Battle Plan #1 Deep Dive - The 6044-6043 Strong Level: The shallow pullback to the 6044-6043 area was well defended with one dip and a rapid move back up. This bull-bear line has become a magnet—just look at how price keeps returning to it. The highest probability entry requires a snappy ladder back above the bull-bear strong level, breaking the trend line and reclaiming the warning shot to bulls. If the bulls are real here, this is likely to happen.
- London Session Opportunity Missed: There was a gorgeous touch-and-go right at that strong level during the London session. If you'd been aggressive at 6,936.50, you would technically still be long. By the time London opened, we had broken the trend line with a strong move back up that couldn't make a new low and got back above the bull-bear. That would have been the entry, though taken at smallest leverage possible thinking we'd grab the Asia high. How weird is it that London session is inside Asia right now?
- POC & Bull-Bear Magnet Effect: Yesterday's POC is acting as a grip on price action right here at the bull-bear line. We need to get away from this level—either get above the strong range or get under the strong range and judge what happens. We've been stuck in this area for a full 24 hours now. If we break above, you go with it. If we go down, look for a trap to trade long.
- Multi-Session Distribution Reading: Looking across the broader market, we're seeing lower distribution, halfback levels, but nothing exciting. If you're wanting to trade an edge, you are not at an edge right now. We're in a multi-session consolidation phase. This requires patience and waiting for the breakout rather than forcing trades in the middle of nowhere.
- Daily Devotional - 1 Peter 3:15: "But honor the Messiah as Lord in your heart. Always be ready to give a defense to anyone who asks you for a reason for the hope that is in you." Be the beacon of shining light where people wonder what's up with you, what you've got that they want. And then be ready to give a defense. Trade with integrity, honor, and hope.
- Get Tomorrow's Trades Tonight: Visit microstrader.com and click battle to access your battle plan. Join us live 15 minutes before market open to trade together and navigate these key levels in real-time.
Opening Remarks
Good morning, everybody. Welcome to the AM Briefing for Tuesday, December 30th, brought to you by MicrosTrader.com, our ES/MES futures trading room. Check us out at MicrosTrader.com.
This week's scripture is from 1 Peter 3:15: “But honor the Messiah as Lord in your heart. Always be ready to give a defense to anyone who asks you for a reason for the hope that is in you.”
Be that beacon of light—where people see something different in you and say, “What’s up with him? What’s up with her? I want some of that.” Then, be ready to give a defense.
Trade Plan Pledge: No Big Losses
We're on section 18 of our trade plan series. We're almost done with this, and today’s focus is a pledge: never take a big loss. As traders, we aim for small wins, small losses, and big wins. The one category you must eliminate is the big loss.
Make a personal pledge: no big losses. Big losses are not your friend. How do they happen? One, you add to a losing trade. Two, you move your stop. Pledge to never do either of these. Don’t add to a loser. Don’t move your stop further away.
Essay Format Questions
- What emotion tends to cause you to move your stop or add to a losing trade?
- How can you reinforce your personal pledge to avoid big losses?
Schedule Notes
FOMC minutes release this afternoon. Tomorrow is a half day. Thursday is closed. Friday we may or may not be live. These built-in four-day weekends are a refreshing time.
We’ll be live this morning on YouTube. Link is in the description. The battle plan is unlocked for everyone. And of course, we’re doing a live stream today—check that out.
Market Structure: Laddering Down and Consolidation
Before we dive in, let’s acknowledge the current market structure. We’re clearly laddering down and now entering a consolidation phase. What does ES tend to do? It moves in one direction, then hangs out, then picks another direction.
Right now, it looks like an L: we moved down and now we’re consolidating sideways. Which way will this break? I wish I knew with 100% certainty—but I don’t.
Battle Plan Review and Entry Discussion
Let’s take a quick look at the battle plan. Once again, it’s unlocked on Monday afternoons because we trade live on Tuesdays. There’s always a review section. This part is free every day where I go over what happened the day before. If you read this, you’re getting two battle plans in one—what we planned and how it played out.
Yesterday, we had several battle plans. One is technically still active. That was a short from Battle Plan 2, up 40 points. Your stop now would be 5–10 points above the RTH high. You could still be in that trade.
Also, a battle plan from last Wednesday just closed with a 190-point gain. That’s really nice. The strategy was simple: enter 5–10 points under each low, hold, hold, hold—and eventually, it’ll hit.
Battle Plan 1: Breakdown
Let’s dive into Battle Plan 1. This won’t make a lot of sense without turning on the strong levels. That bull/bear line has become a magnet.
Now, let’s look at the scenario: a shallow pullback into the 44–43 area. This zone was well defended. We had one dip followed by a rapid move back up. Those lows are important. If this area holds and we see a snappy ladder back above the bull/bear strong level—breaking the trendline and reclaiming the warning shot to bulls—then we’re looking at a long entry.
Notice where I marked "1"—that’s where I believe the highest probability entry exists. One could entertain a long at that point. Reminder: these are trade ideas, not recommendations. I'm not a financial advisor—just someone who’s good at mapping out potential long and short zones.
Entry Considerations and Price Behavior
The trade idea requires a lot from the bulls. But if they’re real, we could see this play out. If you had taken the trade at the strong level—6,936.50—you would technically still be long. Beautiful touch and go. Aggressive entry, but it would’ve paid off.
I marked two key lows. If price takes those and ladders back with conviction, it’s game on. Depending on the timing, I might be interested in a small long on a reclaimed retest of the bull/bear strong level. I should’ve been more specific—it’s during the London session. By then, we had already broken the trendline.
I saw the move, but I was prepping for the AM Briefing, so I didn’t take it. If I had, it would have been small size and breakeven.
Yesterday’s POC is right here—not my favorite trade location, which is why Battle Plan 1 is focused on reclaiming the strong range. That’s when POC has lost its grip, in my view.
Market Context and Final Thoughts
I’d love confluence with NQ on this trade. Otherwise, I’m watching for lower entries. I believe we need to move lower before we can move higher. We’ve tested and bounced hard—now I’m looking for a deeper move down to trigger another long.
All these battle plans are unlocked. Go to MicrosTrader.com and click "Battle Plan" to see what we’re tracking.
I wanted to do a deeper dive into this one entry that was developing. It did get on top of the bull/bear line, bounced a few times, but we just couldn’t get away from it. That POC and bull/bear line is acting as a magnet. We either need to get well above it or well below it to create space for trade setups.
That’s how we’ll trade live—15 minutes before the market opens.
Pre-Market Environment and Wrap-Up
Let’s take a quick look at the broader market. Lower distribution across the board. Halfback levels. Nothing exciting yet. If you want to trade an edge, we’re not there right now.
We’ve been in this lower zone for a full 24 hours. If we break above, I say go with it. If we break lower, I’m watching for a trap-the-trader long setup.
Join us 15 minutes before the market opens. Trade with us. Come hang out. I appreciate you being a member—or even considering becoming one. Good luck trading today. I’ll see you live before the market opens at MicrosTrader.com—click "Battle."
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