Wednesday Dec 31: Opening Bell Prep for Micros & Emini Futures Traders
DEC 31 TRADE PLAN
Wednesday December 31, 2025
On the final trading day of the year, Micros Trader emphasized the importance of pairing disciplined loss prevention with the strategic addition to winning positions. Despite a powerful December rally in SPX, recent sessions have devolved into balance with limited opportunity, prompting a call for patience and edge-based trade execution. The speaker reviewed Sunday’s short setup, noting its continued validity with proper stop progression, while acknowledging missed overnight long entries due to conservative order placement. Caution was advised against mid-range trades, with a reaffirmation of range-based strategies taking precedence over traditional trend line analysis.
Opening Remarks
Good morning, everybody. I'm a little late here, sipping my coffee and reviewing what I want to talk about. It's the last day of the year—Wednesday, December 31st. My goodness. Brought to you by Micros Trader. We're together. We trade better.
This week's scripture is 1 Peter 3:15: “But honor the Messiah as Lord in your hearts. Always be ready to give a defense to anyone who asks for a reason for the hope that is in you.” I do pray that as the year ends and we roll into a new year, there is hope in you. Without hope, I can't imagine the desperation one might feel. I truly hope that for you going into the new year—hope is in you.
Trading Psychology: No Big Losses + Adding to Winners
We're rounding out the battle plan. Section 19 works really well with yesterday's Section 18. That one was a vow, a promise, a pledge to never take a large loss. This is the opposite. Combine these two, and for most traders, it changes everything.
One: no more big losses. Just don’t do it. Refuse it. Tell yourself, “That’s not what I’m going to do.”
Two: look to add to your winning trades. It should be another legit entry you would take even if you weren’t already long or short. The goal is no big losses and building into your trades properly.
Using the Trade Plan Builder
I hope members are looking at the Trade Plan Builder. New members won’t know any different since it’s always been there for them, but I encourage everyone to check it out—it’s included in your membership.
Unemployment claims are coming out shortly. Tomorrow, of course, markets are closed. Friday—I'll update the group if we’re going live. Otherwise, you’ve got a long weekend ahead. Not a bad way to go.
Price Action Reflection & Battle Plan Recap
Last night in the battle plan, I wanted to touch on a few things because I received some private messages about the recent price action. First off—context. Traders tend to have short memories. We just saw a monster 200-point multi-day rally into SPX and SPY all-time highs. December has been nothing short of incredible.
Now we’re just swimming in some holiday "crapola"—you have to expect that. Frankly, yesterday was a cluster bomb of nothing. When we went live, I said I wasn’t interested in trading between certain levels. I took one long on a lower timeframe—made nothing—closed the platform and didn’t open it again. No big deal.
Very short write-up last night. Basically, the battle plan remained unchanged. We move from trend to balance to trend. Right now, we are in balance. We’ll trend again eventually, but it might not be until next week.
So be patient. When we’re in balance, there are fewer opportunities. And when we’re in balance, what do you want to do? Trade the edges. Keep your platform closed until price is at an edge.
Sunday Battle Plan Trade – Still Valid
Let’s back up a bit. Technically, you could still be in the Sunday battle plan trade. I said I wanted to see ES get up to 88, challenge it, and fail in dramatic fashion—then look to get short.
If you held a lotto runner back through Monday and moved your stop behind the RTH or London high, you’d still be short. Yesterday was an inside day—fully contained within the previous day’s range. End of day? Move your stop down further, behind the strong range that has beautifully rejected price. That’s the new defensive posture.
If you traded with us yesterday, you know it was a mess. Price wasn’t respecting levels. This wasn’t normal price action. We said you don’t need to trade this.
I took one break-even trade. We called out a trade against the bull/bear line—if you took it, and took the gift of break-even or exited under the opening, it would’ve been a small loss. It is what it is. Not every day is green.
What we did well was map out two magnets. The same magnets we used yesterday. I said I wasn’t interested in trading until we hit those. Why? Because those are battle plan trades.
Battle Plan Trade Review & Execution
Let me go back a step. On that Sunday trade, we talked about stop progression. Another thing I want to highlight: typically, on a short move, you get four to five strong levels. One, two, three, four, five. That’s typical. So if you’re looking for a near-optimal place to take profit and stop trailing a short, somewhere around the fourth or fifth strong level often makes sense.
I mentioned that in the group yesterday, but I want to emphasize it again. We made five strong levels. Now price is getting back up over the fourth one.
Overnight Price Action & Missed Opportunity
Let’s zoom in. I traded last night. We were looking for a move into this area. Price made it from the bottom to the top of the strong bounce zone—challenged the bottom several times. I told the group: 35 is the key level. I waited until we got above it. As soon as we did, I said, “If we come back down here, I’m going long.”
We had a 3-minute front side setting—my backup level. I didn’t think we’d touch it, but we did. Beautiful reaction. I went long at 35, set stop to break-even. It looked like we were trending up based on battle plan trade #2, fair value gapping, and defending the top.
I thought, “Cool—let’s go, baby.” But… no go-go. Price came right back and stopped me out at break-even.
Before bed, I looked at battle plan trade #4. Left a limit order at the greediest possible apex. Of course, it didn’t get there. If I’d been up big this week, I would’ve taken it at 20—top of the strong range—with a stop under the apex.
I wasn’t aggressive. My order didn’t fill. Beautiful bounce off that level—ladder back—and, of course, overnight had all the fun.
Had I been awake, this would’ve been the long for me.
Morning Analysis & Trade Location Discipline
Just watching price action. It paid well. I had an order to go long at 33—it didn’t pull back enough. Oh well, I missed it. Sometimes, the satisfaction is simply in seeing the price action correctly and knowing exactly where you want to engage.
Although yesterday offered nothing, if you had said, “Let’s wait for the battle plan trades to work out,” that’s exactly where you’d want to engage.
If you know where you want to engage—long or short—you’ll often do really well. What hurts traders is feeling like they have to trade. No—you wait until price reaches a key area.
I’m happy with that. Disappointed I’m not long, but still satisfied because that was my trade location.
Outlook & Range Structure Considerations
Now we sit back and wait for something new. If we run back up into the two-day balance area, am I interested in trading? Honestly, if it rips through the bull/bear line, I’ll probably take that long again. We’ve had a strong pullback, five strong levels, laddering back up, fair value gapping—it lines up.
Would I look for new shorts? Not really. You could convince me otherwise—laddering down, breaking structure, etc.—and I’d get it. But ES has this nature: it does a pullback, traps shorts, and reverses.
Where do you even draw the line? It’s not easy. Maybe somewhere in this general zone. But that just puts us right back into balance.
I would default to using range rules—which is what this really is. If we’re back in the middle of the range, I’m not interested in trading. Even though it might be pressing a trend line, I still think range rules matter more than a trend line.
We don’t emphasize trend lines in our group. We draw them when they’re obvious, but we put more weight on range structures.
Closing Remarks
For me, the play was to be long off either of those strong ranges. I’m flat now. I hope price comes back.
If this is a short-covering rally and it runs without me—so be it. I’ll wait for the next opportunity.
I’ll see my traders live 15 minutes before the market opens. Get tomorrow’s trades tonight at microsTrader.com and click Battle.
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