ES Futures Trading System
Microstrader AM Briefing: Market Volatility and Strategic Execution
Executive Summary
The recent market sessions have been defined by extreme volatility, characterized by high-velocity price action and significant distributions. A primary catalyst was an unexpected "Trump tweet," which triggered a 123-point move, including a 50-point spike within a three-minute window. This briefing emphasizes the transition of market control to the bulls as price action moved into the upper distribution and began testing the "Bull Bear Line."
The core strategic takeaway is the necessity of disciplined execution: trading only "on your terms" and utilizing "Stand Down" orders during irrational price movements to preserve capital. Technical success remains rooted in the "Strong Levels" established at the beginning of the trading week, which continue to act as reliable pivots for entries and back-tests.
Market Performance and Price Action Analysis
The Catalyst of Irrational Action
The trading session experienced a "glorious, ridiculous out of nowhere move" precipitated by external news. This event fundamentally altered the day's trajectory:
- Velocity: Price moved 50 points in only three minutes.
- Total Magnitude: The full move captured approximately 123 points.
- Technical Impact: The move pushed price action into the upper distribution, ending the session above the 2026 opening price.
Shift in Market Control
The briefing notes a definitive shift in momentum. To regain control, the bulls needed to break and back-test a specific trend line.
- The Bullish Confirmation: Bulls successfully broke the trend line, back-tested the top of the "Strong Range," and maintained residency in the upper distribution throughout the overnight session.
- Current Positioning: As of the briefing, the market is "flirting" with the Bull Bear Line, a critical juncture for determining sustained direction.
Strategic Directives and Risk Management
The "Stand Down" Principle
During the 50-point three-minute spike, the immediate directive issued was to "Stand Down." This policy is designed to prevent traders from "chasing" irrational moves that do not meet pre-defined criteria.
"Not My Move on My Terms": A central mantra for maintaining emotional distance from the market. Traders are encouraged to accept that some moves—even 100-point moves—are not tradable if they do not align with the core strategy.
The Cost of Chasing: The transcript highlights "Twitter scars," referring to traders who blew accounts by adding to losing positions or chasing the volatility during the spike.
Execution Frameworks
- The Three Contract System: A hypothetical application where keeping one contract at break-even would have allowed for capturing the full 123-point move.
- Fixed Profit Targets: A 30-point profit was captured on a long trade, but the trader was stopped out by a trailing stop before the final surge.
- Paper Cut Stop Loss: Utilized at the Bull Bear Line to allow for a high-probability short entry with minimal risk.
Technical Methodology: Strong Levels and Battle Plans
The "Battle Plan" serves as the primary roadmap for navigating daily volatility. It relies on "Strong Levels" mapped out at the start of the week.
| Level/Term | Description |
|---|---|
| Strong Levels | Points identified on Sunday that act as the "secret ingredient" for the week's trades. |
| Bull Bear Line | A critical pivot point where the market determines long-term control. |
| Upper Distribution | The price area where the market settled following the volatility, indicating bullish strength. |
Macroeconomic Context and Upcoming Data
- Core PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures)
- Final GDP
- Unemployment Claims
Conclusion and Trader Discipline
The briefing concludes by contrasting two types of traders: those who "hurt themselves" by over-trading the volatility and those who remained disciplined. By setting a short entry and allowing the trade to play out without emotional intervention, the latter was able to pass a funded account evaluation.
Core Directive: Stay upright and disciplined. Walking uprightly equates to following the Battle Plan and respecting the "Stand Down" directive when the market becomes irrational.
Comments
Post a Comment