FOMC Trade Plan
Market Analysis: The Tale of Two Cities
Executive Summary
The current market landscape is defined by a significant divergence in trading performance and strategy, categorized as a "tale of two cities." While previous weeks favored core strategies and active Zoom sessions, the current week has been characterized by the dominance of "Battle Plan" trades executed during overnight sessions. The primary objective for the week—reaching all-time highs—has been achieved, largely propelled by a technical "slingshot" move from an origin level in the NQ.
With the market currently sitting at all-time highs, the immediate trading opportunity has largely passed. Focus now shifts to high-impact macro drivers occurring this afternoon, specifically the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announcement and major corporate earnings from Microsoft, Meta, and Tesla. Traders are advised to moderate expectations and exercise caution, as trading at all-time highs provides a challenging environment for new entries.
Performance Metrics and Strategic Shifts
The "Tale of Two Cities" theme highlights a sharp contrast in where profitability was found this week compared to the previous period. The following table summarizes the performance distribution:
| Metric | Current Week Status | Previous Week Comparison |
|---|---|---|
| Battle Plan Points | +130 Points | Significantly lower |
| Zoom Results | 0 Points | Significantly higher |
| RTH (Regular Trading Hours) | "Nothing" / Minimal activity | Higher core strategy engagement |
Key Strategy Observations
- Overnight Dominance: Success this week required being long during the overnight sessions and holding positions.
- Entry Timing: The most effective entries occurred during the Sunday opening. Traders utilizing Battle Plan 2 or 4 who held through the day—or overnight for those with eligible accounts—captured the majority of the move.
- Bullish Control: Price action consistently signaled that bulls were in control. The analysis repeatedly emphasized that "shorts are calendar, small, if at all," and that the likelihood of short success diminished as the market approached all-time highs.
Technical Analysis and Market Context
The move to all-time highs was not incidental but driven by specific technical levels identified in previous sessions.
The NQ Slingshot
A critical "origin level" in the NQ was identified as a pivot point. The analysis suggested this level would either repel price downward or propel it straight up. The subsequent "straight up" movement acted as a slingshot, providing the necessary momentum to reach the all-time high.
Current Market Position
- Goal Achievement: The primary goal of being long into the all-time high has been accomplished.
- Entry Risks: Trading at all-time highs is described as "not the funnest place to be looking for a new trade." Because the anticipated move has already occurred, the risk-to-reward ratio for new trades is currently less favorable.
Macroeconomic Drivers and Catalysts
The afternoon session is expected to be high-impact, driven by both regulatory news and big-tech earnings.
- FOMC Announcement: The Federal Open Market Committee meeting is the central focus of the day. A live stream is scheduled to cover the announcement and subsequent market reaction.
- Corporate Earnings: Three "Magnificent Seven" companies are reporting results this afternoon: Microsoft, Meta, and Tesla.
- Operational Guidance: Traders are encouraged to "moderate expectations" given the confluence of all-time highs and major news events.
Platform and Tooling Updates
To improve the user experience during long review sessions, a functional upgrade has been made to the Microstrader Battle Plan interface.
Floating Audio Player: The audio player has been redesigned to float on the page. This allows traders to pause the audio to inspect charts or take breaks without having to scroll back to the top of the page. This feature is intended to facilitate a more seamless "read-along" experience when analyzing detailed charts and text.
Concluding Quotes and Reflections
"The easier trade is to have been long all week long going into the all time high. That’s what the price action was telling us."
"Moderate your expectations and know that trading at all-time highs is not the funnest place to be looking for a new trade."
"The wages of sin is death, but the gift of God is eternal life... it is just so valuable to be in Christ." (Excerpt from Romans 6:23).
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the "NQ Slingshot" mentioned in the analysis?
The NQ Slingshot refers to a critical technical origin level in the Nasdaq that acted as a pivot point, propelling the price straight up to achieve new all-time highs.
Why is caution advised for new trades at the current market levels?
Since the primary goal of reaching all-time highs has been achieved, the risk-to-reward ratio for new entries is less favorable, making it a challenging environment for new trades.
Which major macroeconomic events are expected to impact the market today?
The market is focused on the FOMC announcement and corporate earnings from Microsoft, Meta, and Tesla.
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