MES FUTURES TRADING SYSTEM

Wednesday January 21, 2026

The current market landscape remains firmly under bearish control as indices continue to ladder down below the declining volume-weighted average price. Traders are urged to maintain a disciplined approach, treating any long positions as speculative counter-trend opportunities with limited upside potential. Tactical patience is required as the market awaits high-profile catalysts, including a scheduled address by President Trump and critical pending home sales data. For the outlook to shift, bulls must demonstrate significant technical strength by reclaiming key levels above the current 2026 opening price. ✅ The market is in a clear bearish state, trading below the 2026 opening price and previous day's lows. ✅ Current price action is "laddering down," with bears firmly in control of all major indices. ✅ Long positions are high-risk "counter-trend" moves that require small sizing and quick profit-taking. ✅ Traders are advised to "hang back" during high-impact events like President Trump's speech. ✅ A bullish reversal is only confirmed if the price can successfully ladder back above key resistance levels.

☀️ AM BRIEFING

Microstrader AM Briefing: Market Analysis and Trading Strategy

Executive Summary

The current market environment is transitionally bearish, characterized by price action "laddering down" below key technical markers including the Bull/Bear line, the 2026 opening price, and the previous day's low. With all major indices trading under a declining VWAP, the recommended stance is defensive. Long positions are strictly counter-trend and high-risk, while new shorts at current levels lack a favorable risk/reward profile. Traders are advised to exercise patience, waiting for specific price targets or clarity following external catalysts such as President Trump’s speech and Pending Home Sales data.

Current Market Assessment: Bear-Dominated Environment

Multiple technical indicators confirm that bears currently maintain control of the market. Key evidence includes:

Trading below the 2026 opening price and the Bull/Bear line.
Price action remaining under the expected range and declining VWAP.
A distinct failure of bullish momentum; previous "battle plans" for upward movement have lacked follow-through.

Recommended Trading Strategy

Strategy focuses on capital preservation and waiting for high-probability locations. Long trades should be small and treated as "scalps"—taking profits immediately ("see money, take money"). Shorting at the current bottom is considered difficult, suggesting a "wait and see" approach until the price reaches a predetermined lower area of interest.

Defining a Bullish Reversal

A shift in sentiment requires bulls to "ladder back above" a identified strong level. Only a sustained move above this threshold would justify holding long positions for larger, extended moves ("lotto runners").

External Events and Catalysts

Market participants should monitor the following closely:

President Trump’s Speech: Traders are advised to "hang back" and observe market reactions.
Pending Home Sales: Scheduled for 30 minutes after the opening bell.
TCE Report: A "red folder" event on Thursday, though historically yielding low volatility.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current market bias according to the briefing?

The market is currently in a bear-dominated environment, trading below the Bull/Bear line and the 2026 opening price.

How should traders handle long positions right now?

Longs are considered high-risk counter-trend trades. Traders should use small sizes and take profits quickly rather than looking for large moves.

What is the strategy for new short positions?

While the trend is bearish, initiating new shorts at current levels is described as difficult; the preference is to wait for the price to reach a specific area of interest.