Why Discipline Beats P&L On A Trend Day — AM Briefing #876
AM BRIEFING
ES CHART | KEY LEVELS | SETUPS
ES Technical Analysis — AM Briefing 876 Timeline
Thursday October 15, 2026
| TIME | CHAPTER |
|---|---|
| 0:00 | Welcome ES MES Futures Traders |
| 1:10 | Briefing #876 Open: Are You Prepared? This week's scripture: the horse is prepared for the day. George sets up a longer than usual briefing walking last night's Battle Plan. |
| 1:32 | Today's Calendar: PPI, Retail Sales, Warsh A double doozy… the day after CPI and the day before OpEx. Bank earnings kick off the season. |
| 2:42 | The Trend Day Test: Did You Pass? Trend days punish sloppy risk management. Did you add to a loser, move a stop, or stay a patient professional? Discipline score over P and L. |
| 3:33 | How George Trades CPI: Small Size, Big Runner CPI is a fantastic day for runners. Trade small, get to great location, and hold a lotto runner for the home run. |
| 4:47 | No One Needs To Trade CPI A breakeven or small red day is fine. CPI is a great day to sit out, and a great day to start journaling. |
| 5:11 | Finish 100% Of Your Pre-Trade Routine Complete your entire routine before entering the live trading room. Battle Plan, AM Briefing, charts marked, journal reviewed, checklist run. |
| 7:48 | The Room Is No Substitute: Coaching Callout Show up unprepared and it is easy to get swept into a trade with no plan. George explains why he calls out unprepared questions. |
| 9:22 | Core Strategy Recap: An Amazing Day George encourages end of day charts and walks the three ways the group earns points: Battle Plan, Zoom, and Core Strategy. |
| 10:15 | Yesterday's Tape: Why Shorts Paid Best Overnight laddered up and took out previous day high, then CPI reversed. Longs to 65, shorts to 41, where price bounced. See money, take money. |
| 13:00 | Still Long: Battle Plan 3 Ladder Back George took the long he welcomed in his notes. In a bears control tape, expect longs to double and triple tap. |
| 15:21 | Bull Bear Line Lost, Bears Control Bulls failed to defend the Bull Bear Line. Price back tested, laddered beyond, and dropped to the bottom of the high timeframe range. |
| 16:22 | Holding The Lotto Runner At The Lows Day already insured after peeling multiple contracts. George holds an aggressive runner below the low. Bears control, shorts are counter, small if at all. |
MES MICROS TRADE PLAN
Why The Discipline Score Beats Your P&L On A Trend Day
Posted: Thursday October 15, 2026
Yesterday was another trend day test on CPI, and trend days hurt traders who get sloppy with risk. This morning the Bull Bear Line is lost, price back tested it and laddered through, and now bears control the ES futures morning briefing. Today brings PPI, retail sales and Warsh speaking, with OpEx tomorrow… a double doozy sandwiched between the day after CPI and option expiration. The lesson that carries the day is simple: when the tape is this hot, your discipline score matters more than your P and L. Trade small, hunt great location, hold a lotto runner, or stand down.
THE TREND DAY TEST: DID YOU PASS?
Trend days do not happen often, so most traders are built for one specific kind of tape. When a real trend day shows up on CPI, any slack in your risk management gets taxed hard. The question is not what you made… it is how you behaved.
- Did you add to a loser?
- Did you move your stop?
- Or were you a patient professional?
On Zoom yesterday George said it 24 times: all entries are high risk, it is a level 10 trading day. He repeated it on purpose so nobody forgot what tape they were standing on.
Trader Lesson 1
On a high risk day, the discipline score matters more than your P and L. Follow your rules, do not add to losers, do not move your stop. How you behaved outranks what you banked.
HOW GEORGE TRADES CPI: SMALL SIZE, BIG RUNNER
There is no easy trading on CPI, but it is a fantastic day for runners. If you can get to a great trade location and hold a lotto runner, it can really pay. A lotto runner is a speculative, low probability contract you hold for an extended move after you have already taken profit on your initial contracts.
George's own CPI style: get to great location, go for the home run, and trade small. He will still take up to three contracts under the 3-Contract System because his leverage metrics allow more, but on CPI he sits at the low end of what the metric says. Then with all his might he holds a lotto runner for the big payday.
Trader Lesson 2
On event days, size down and swing for a runner. Get to a great trade location, take profit on your initial contracts, then hold a lotto runner for the home run. Either it pays big or it is a small day… both are acceptable.
THE PRE-TRADE ROUTINE IS NON-NEGOTIABLE
Whether you are a full member or a YouTube channel member watching the live stream Monday through Friday, finish your entire pre-trade routine before you step into the live trading room. Not 80%, not 90%… 100% of your predetermined pre-trade routine.
Do you even have a predetermined pre-trade routine? You should. If you do not, build one and post it in the group or ask on Discord. A strong routine looks like this:
- Read or listen to the Battle Plan: the nightly ES trade plan, with an audio version read in George's voice through 11 Labs.
- Watch the AM Briefing: so you walk in knowing what day it is.
- Mark your charts: zoom out on the daily and 30 minute, mark the Core Strategy levels and Strong Levels.
- Review your week: check your performance in your trade journal.
- Run your checklist: charts marked, Strong Levels drawn, Battle Plan reviewed, routine complete… then pop into the room.
Walking in unprepared, it is dangerously easy to get swept into a trade before you even decide if it is your trade. Suddenly you are trading without a plan, and the tax on that mistake can be heavy. The live trading room is not a substitute for your pre-trade routine. Ignore that and sooner or later you will pay the price.
Trader Lesson 3
Finish 100% of your pre-trade routine before you enter the live trading room. The room is no substitute for your own preparation. Do your full pre-flight check, then walk in ready to trade.
And if you jump in and ask a question that was thoroughly covered in the AM Briefing or Battle Plan, like "why are these candles so big?" on CPI morning when you do not even know it is CPI morning, expect to get called out. You hired a coach to lift you up and to tell you the truth. Showing up unprepared is not fair to you or to the traders who did their homework.
YESTERDAY'S TAPE: WHY SHORTS PAID BEST
The overnight session was really strong. We laddered up all night and took out the previous day high. Then CPI had a different plan and reversed it. The map still worked for anyone who respected location.
- The longs: the long off the first level ran nearly to target, then the next Strong Level gave a little, then the next target up at 65 pushed through nicely if you survived two or three taps.
- The shorts: the aggressive short up high paid the best of the day. Several Core Strategy shorts lined up, with the next target down at 41, which is exactly where price bounced.
- The bounce at 41: Jackie was long there with multiple contracts, captured 20 points on initial contracts, and held a lotto runner.
The right trade yesterday was see money, take money. If you chased the bounce instead of waiting to confirm it, you had a tough day. If you traded tight you had a green day: one move went 10 points, another about 7. If you were sloppy with risk, or worse made it worse, you had a horrible day.
Trader Lesson 4
On a volatile event tape, see money take money. Peel profit at your mapped levels instead of chasing the bounce. Perfect entries and tight stops make a green day… chasing makes a red one.
THIS MORNING: BULL BEAR LINE LOST, BEARS CONTROL
George woke up still long and took a long again this morning. The theme has shifted: bears control. Last night's Battle Plan said it plainly… bears control, expect double and triple taps. It can be frustrating to trade long when bears control, because longs will tap twice or three times before they go.
The Bull Bear Line is the key dividing level between bullish and bearish bias. George believed the bulls needed to defend it yesterday. They lost it, price back tested it, and once he laddered beyond the Bull Bear Line, as much as it pains him to say… bears control. Price laddered down to the bottom of a high timeframe range that lives between the Bull Bear Line and a daily range, with a daily trend line George had drawn through that level.
On Battle Plan 3, his notes read: "I would not be surprised at all if we explore Battle Plan 3 and ladder back up. I would welcome this trade." Several legit long entries fired down there, most around breakeven given the bearish environment, with cleaner results if you kept your stop below the low or behind the Strong Level.
George is long at the bottom of the range and wants to be long here. He already had multiple contracts, peeled and peeled, and a very nice day is insured. Now he holds his lotto runner aggressively, placed below the low rather than under a Strong Range, so he stays in the runner even if price takes out the low. The honest risk: lose this range and the tape could vomit another 150 points today. That is fine when your day is already banked.
Trader Lesson 5
Insure the day before you gamble on the runner. Peel into strength until a green day is locked, then hold your lotto runner in an aggressive spot. Once the profit is banked, a deeper flush does not hurt you.
"I either do really well on a day like CPI, or it's a breakeven day or a small red day for me. I'm fine with either."
COMMON QUESTIONS FOR ES FUTURES TRADERS
What is a trend day and why does it hurt so many futures traders?
A: A trend day is a one direction session with clean structure and few deep pullbacks. They do not happen often, so most traders are conditioned for choppy, mean reverting tape. When a trend day arrives, especially on an event day, any sloppiness in risk management gets punished hard because the market does not give back ground to bail you out.
Why does the discipline score matter more than P&L on a CPI day?
A: On a level 10 trading day the outcome is noisy… you can follow every rule and still lose, or break every rule and get lucky. Grading yourself on behavior instead of dollars keeps you honest. Did you add to a loser, move a stop, or chase? If you stayed a patient professional, you passed, regardless of the number on the screen.
What is a lotto runner in ES futures trading?
A: A lotto runner is a speculative, low probability contract you hold for an extended move after you have already taken profit on your initial contracts. The idea is to bank a solid day first, then let one contract ride for a potential home run. On event days like CPI it is George's preferred way to swing for a big payday while keeping downside small.
How should I size my position on an event day like CPI?
A: Trade small. Under the 3-Contract System you might be allowed up to three contracts or more by your leverage metrics, but on CPI you sit at the low end of that range. Smaller size lets you take great locations, hold a runner, and accept a breakeven or small red day without stress.
What is the Bull Bear Line and why does it matter?
A: The Bull Bear Line is the key level dividing bullish from bearish bias. When price holds above it, bulls control and longs are cleaner. When price loses it, back tests it, and ladders beyond, bears take control… which means longs will double and triple tap before they work, if they work at all.
What does it mean when "bears control" and how should I trade it?
A: Bears control means the path of least resistance is down and counter trend longs are the hard trade. Expect double and triple taps on long entries, keep stops tight and defined below the low or behind a Strong Level, and remember the house rule: bears control, shorts are counter, small if at all.
Why do I need to finish my pre-trade routine before entering the live trading room?
A: The room is not a substitute for your own preparation. Walk in unprepared and it is dangerously easy to get swept into a trade before you decide if it is even your trade. A complete routine… Battle Plan read, AM Briefing watched, charts marked, journal reviewed… means you arrive knowing the day and the levels, not reacting blind.
What should a solid ES futures pre-trade routine include?
A: Read or listen to the Battle Plan, watch the AM Briefing, zoom out on the daily and 30 minute charts to mark your Core Strategy levels and Strong Levels, review your week in your trade journal, and run a written checklist. Finish 100% of it before you step into the room.
What does "see money, take money" mean for managing a runner?
A: On a volatile tape you peel profit at your mapped levels as price gives it to you instead of waiting for a perfect exit or chasing a bounce. You lock a green day on your initial contracts, then let a lotto runner ride. Once the day is insured, a deeper flush against the runner does not hurt you.
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