MES MICROS TRADE PLAN

Q: What does know where you're at mean practically for ES traders?

Know where you're at is the foundational principle of the MicrosTrader methodology. It means: before placing any trade, identify where current price sits relative to the high-timeframe range, the nearest strong range levels above and below, the value area, the VWAP and its slope, and recent directional context. When traders lose this macro awareness — especially when zoomed into 1-minute charts — they make reactive decisions instead of informed ones. The AM briefing and battle plan exist specifically to answer this question every single trading day.

Posted: Thursday February 26, 2025

☀️ AM BRIEFING

Thursday, February 26th opened with ES completing a Speculator Special setup that — when posted in the prior night's battle plan — was more than 35 points away and appeared highly improbable. Price respected key strong range levels, laddered higher through the 100-day value area, and ultimately validated the importance of following price rather than predicting it. The session unfolded against the backdrop of a 100+ point directional move in 24 hours, making conditions volatile and discipline absolutely critical. With ES now pressing the top of a long-standing high-timeframe range, traders face a delicate environment where shorting is dangerous, new longs carry elevated risk, and knowing where you are on the chart is everything.

📖 Morning Devotional — Psalm 118

The session opened with this week's scripture from Psalm 118, grounding traders in a posture of gratitude and humility before the market opens. The verse chosen: "You are my God, I will praise you. You are my God, I will exalt you. Oh give thanks to the Lord for He is good, for His mercy endures forever." This weekly practice serves as a reminder that discipline, patience, and perspective extend beyond the charts.

📅 Economic Calendar & Upcoming Catalysts

Date	Event	Significance
Thursday, Feb 26	Unemployment Claims	Released early session — potential short-term volatility driver
Wednesday (prior eve)	Nvidia Earnings	Produced approximately a 25-point candle on the 3-minute chart; contributed to overnight volatility
Friday, Feb 27	PPI + Friday Rules	Friday Rules apply; reduced aggressiveness recommended, confirmation bias toward longs only

🎯 The Speculator Special — Trade Review

The prior night's battle plan featured a setup called the Speculator Special — a long entry predicated on price reclaiming the 6,936 strong range to the upside. When published, the level was more than 35 points away and crossing three significant strong levels, making it feel nearly unreachable. That psychological improbability is precisely the point: the battle plan identified where interest existed before price arrived, not after.

Setup Trigger: A long entry was flagged if ES could reclaim and hold above the 6,936 strong range — a zone that had seen repeated rejections and was identified as a key inflection point.
Trade Logic: At this level, the goal was to either initiate a new long or add to an existing winning trade. With the value area low already explored, the objective became completing the 100-day value area move — reaching the value area high.
Execution Context: Price reached the target in what was described as "the ugliest fashion" — choppy, grinding price action following a 100+ point directional run in 24 hours. That digestion period (a couple of hours of sideways action) was expected given the prior move's magnitude.
Result: ES completed the move to the 100-day value area high. The distance between the two major strong levels was approximately 40 points, with no intervening strong levels — validating the clean technical run once the range was cleared.

⚠️ Key Insight: The Speculator Special appeared improbable at the time of posting. This is intentional. The battle plan's job is to identify where price should be watched — not to predict whether it gets there. Following price to the level and executing at confirmation is the entire framework.

🚫 Trading Psychology — The "Don't Short This" Lesson

A significant portion of the session was dedicated to a clip reviewing what traders were specifically advised not to do during yesterday's ladder: short an uptrending, bull-controlled market. This is presented as equally important as identifying winning setups — knowing what to avoid preserves capital and keeps traders on the right side of price action.

The Core Warning: As ES was laddering higher through the strong range, the session's message was unambiguous — do not look for shorts. Even a brief scalp short required a maximum 3-point stop loss to be considered. Without that discipline, the risk-reward was unfavorable.
When Shorting Is Permissible (During Bull Control): If a trader absolutely needed to short, the only acceptable location was far above — at the top of the high-timeframe range or at specific pre-defined rejection zones. Shorting mid-ladder or against the trend direction was explicitly discouraged.
The Prediction Trader Problem: The session introduced the concept of the "prediction trader" — the internal voice that looks at a ladder and decides a top is in. Nothing on the chart during the session was signaling a short. Traders were reminded: if the chart isn't telling you to short, stand down.
Rule Articulation: If a trader wants to short during a bull-controlled market, they must have pre-defined, written rules with specific conditions. If they cannot follow those rules without exception, the correct answer is to never short during bull control — period.

⚠️ Prompt of the Week: "What lesson did you ignore — and then repeat?" Use this as a journaling exercise to identify recurring mistakes in your trading process.

📊 Technical Analysis — High-Timeframe Range & Current Position

ES is now pressing the upper boundary of a significant, well-established high-timeframe range — a zone that has been referenced repeatedly in recent sessions. Understanding the current position within this range is essential to making informed decisions about long entries, short entries, and risk management going into Friday.

The High-Timeframe Range: ES has been trading within a defined multi-week range. The general principle applied here: look for longs at the bottom, avoid looking for longs near the top. ES is currently hugging the upper boundary of this range.
All-Time High Proximity: At the time of the Nvidia candle high, ES was approximately 0.85 points from the all-time high — placing price squarely in a zone that is considered challenging to trade from a risk-reward standpoint.
Strong Range: 6,936: This was the critical inflection level. Bulls needed to reclaim and hold this level to sustain momentum. Once cleared, the path opened to the 100-day value area high — with no intermediate strong levels in the 40-point gap.
Trend Line Application: A trend line drawn from the overnight low through subsequent price structure confirmed parabolic behavior on the 3-minute chart. Traders were advised to zoom out regularly — 10-minute and 30-minute charts — to avoid losing macro context while focused on micro entries.
VWAP Posture: The session noted an upward-slanting VWAP with bulls firmly in control — a further confirmation that the path of least resistance remained to the upside.
2026 Opening Price (NQ): NQ's target during the session corresponded to a retest of the 2026 opening price, which aligned precisely with the strong range level mapped in the battle plan — a multi-timeframe confluence confirmation.

⚠️ Current Trade Location Warning: With ES at the top of the high-timeframe range, this is not an ideal location to initiate new longs. If a long is taken here, strict rules apply: do not allow the trade to go against you. This area has historically rotated back to the lower range boundary. Manage accordingly.

💡 Tip of the Day — Trade in the Direction of Control

Yesterday's battle plan tip of the day was highlighted in this session as a foundational principle for ES futures trading. It directly applies to the current market environment and is worth internalizing fully.

The Principle: Trading in the direction of whoever controls the market works in a trader's favor more times than not.
How to Identify Control: Read the battle plan, watch the AM briefing, study the chart structure, and evaluate VWAP posture, trend lines, and the location of price relative to established strong ranges.
The Caveat — Especially When Bulls Control: When bulls are in control, shorting is a particularly hard way to make a living. Most short attempts during bull control are attempts to call a top. That's a low-probability, high-frustration approach. The better path: do everything possible to find and execute longs.
The Takeaway: The battle plan's primary job is to keep traders on the right side of price action. When bulls control, that means looking for longs at the highest-probability trade locations — and holding a runner to maximize the move.

"You've got to know where those zones are. That's the entire purpose of the battle plan — and the purpose of Zoom is to keep us on the right side of price action."

❓ FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS

COMMON QUESTIONS FOR ES FUTURES TRADERS

What is the Speculator Special?

A: The Speculator Special is a setup outlined in the prior night's battle plan that identifies a long entry at a location that may appear improbable when first posted — often 30+ points away or multiple strong levels distant. The setup is based on the principle that the battle plan's job is to map where price should be watched before it arrives. In this session, the Speculator Special was triggered above the 6,936 strong range, where bulls were given the benefit of the doubt if price could reclaim and hold that level. The trade was designed to either initiate a new position or add to an existing winning trade en route to the 100-day value area high.

What is a "strong range" in ES futures trading?

A: A strong range is a defined price zone that has historically acted as significant support or resistance — an area where price has repeatedly reversed, stalled, or reacted. In this session, 6,936 was identified as a strong range. When bulls reclaimed that level, it opened a clean 40-point path to the next strong range with no intervening levels — making the move both predictable in direction and manageable from a target perspective.

Why shouldn't traders short when bulls are in control?

A: Shorting during bull control almost always amounts to attempting to call a top — a statistically low-probability trade. When the upward-slanting VWAP, trend structure, and strong range reclaims all confirm bull control, counter-trend shorts require precise entries (ideally at the top of a defined high-timeframe range), extremely tight stop losses (roughly 3 points), and pre-written rules for execution. Without all of these conditions in place, the correct posture is to stand down and wait for a long setup.

What does "hold a runner" mean in this context?

A: Holding a runner refers to retaining a portion of an open long position after scaling out of initial profit targets, allowing it to ride toward a larger technical objective. In this session, traders who entered long at the bottom of the range or at the Speculator Special level were encouraged to hold a runner all the way to the 100-day value area high — a move of 40+ points. The rationale: if bulls are in control and the next strong range is 40 points away with no obstacles, there is no reason to exit the entire position early.

What are "Friday Rules" and why do they matter?

A: Friday Rules are a specific set of trading guidelines that apply on Fridays to account for reduced institutional participation, end-of-week profit-taking, and generally less reliable follow-through on breakouts. While the exact rules vary by trader, the session's reference indicates reduced aggressiveness, a bias toward confirmation before entry, and awareness that Friday price action can be deceptive. Friday also coincides with PPI data this week, adding an additional volatility consideration.

What is the 100-day value area and why was it the target?

A: The 100-day value area represents the price range in which the majority of trading volume has occurred over the past 100 sessions — bounded by a value area low (VAL) and a value area high (VAH). When ES had already explored the value area low and then reclaimed the 6,936 strong range, the logical next target became the value area high. This principle — that price tends to complete its journey from one side of the value area to the other once directional bias is established — is a core navigational framework used in the battle plan.

What does "know where you're at" mean practically for ES traders?

A: "Know where you're at" is the foundational principle of the entire MicrosTrader methodology. It means: before placing any trade, identify where current price sits relative to (1) the high-timeframe range, (2) the nearest strong range levels above and below, (3) the value area (low, high, and POC), (4) the VWAP and its slope, and (5) recent directional context. When traders lose this macro awareness — especially when zoomed into 1-minute charts — they make reactive decisions instead of informed ones. The AM briefing and battle plan exist specifically to answer this question every single trading day.

How should traders handle longs near the top of a high-timeframe range?

A: With extreme caution and strict rules. The top of a high-timeframe range is not a preferred location to initiate longs because price has historically rotated back to the bottom of the range from this zone. If a long is taken, the rule is absolute: do not allow the trade to go against you. Use tight stops, reduce position size, and accept that the trade may not work. The upside scenario — a genuine breakout above the range — does exist, but the base case remains rotation lower. Enter surgically or wait for confirmation of a breakout before committing.