Best MES Micros Setups Today
MES MICROS TRADE PLAN
Posted: Wednesday February 25, 2026
Wednesday's session opened with a candid review of the prior day's missed trampoline trade — a setup the Battle Plan correctly identified but execution fell short by only three points, resulting in a missed 100-point runner. Price has since rallied back into a well-defined resistance zone that has produced multiple consecutive rejections, placing bulls and bears at a critical inflection point. The session's key message was clear: do not short indiscriminately into bull momentum, do not chase monster candles, and wait for defined entries with technical confluence. Nvidia earnings after the close represent the session's primary wildcard catalyst, with potential for outsized after-hours moves. The macro structure remains constructive — price is above the 100-day value area low, above the bull-bear line, and above the 2026 opening price — but a small internal range overhead continues to demand respect.
📖 Devotional & Opening Reflection
The session opened with a passage from Psalm 118 — "You are my God, I will praise you; You are my God and I will exalt you. Oh give thanks to the Lord, for He is good, for His mercy endures forever." This grounding moment precedes the market analysis, consistent with the MicrosTrader format of integrating faith-based reflection into the trading day. The weekly journaling prompt from Trader Meditations was also highlighted as a tool for intentional self-assessment.
📅 Economic Calendar & Upcoming Catalysts
Wednesday's calendar is light on scheduled macro events, but two near-term catalysts are commanding attention — one intraday and one structural.
| Date | Event | Significance |
|---|---|---|
| Wednesday (today) | No scheduled macro drivers | Clean technical session — price action leads |
| Wednesday After Close | Nvidia (NVDA) Earnings | High-impact catalyst; potential for large after-hours candles in ES/MES futures |
| Thursday | Unemployment Claims | Weekly labor data; can move futures pre-market |
| Friday | PPI (Producer Price Index) | Inflation gauge; Friday Rules are in effect — reduced position sizing / heightened caution |
📊 Battle Plan Review: The Missed Trampoline Trade
The prior session's battle plan correctly identified a key support zone as a potential "trampoline" location — a price area where bulls were expected to step in, absorb selling pressure, and launch a significant move higher. The trade thesis was validated by price action; the market dipped precisely into the mapped zone and produced a powerful rally. However, execution missed the ideal entry by approximately three points, which resulted in a failure to capture a move that ultimately reached 100 points on a lotto runner.
- Battle Plan Mapping Accuracy: The trampoline zone was identified in the prior evening's battle plan. Price dipped into the area and bounced as anticipated, confirming the methodology's reliability even when individual execution falls short.
- Entry Miss: The ideal entry was missed by three points. The subsequent move generated 23-point, 15-point, and 13-point candles in rapid succession — making any chase entry untenable and high-risk.
- The 55/35 Structure: From the trampoline low, price made a 55-point impulsive move higher, followed by a 35-point retracement, and then settled into a slow bull-controlled grind for the remainder of the session.
- Key Lesson: When price produces back-to-back 15-point candles without an entry, the correct response is patience — not pursuit. Chasing monster candles is a low-probability, high-risk decision that contradicts systematic execution.
📈 Technical Analysis: Current Structure & Key Levels
Price is positioned at a technically significant juncture — above multiple macro reference levels but pressing against a well-tested overhead resistance range that has produced rejection on at least three prior tests. The fractal nature of market structure is emphasized: there are ranges inside of ranges, and identifying which levels carry the most weight requires extended chart time.
- 100-Day Value Area Low: Price broke above this key long-term level, successfully retested it, and has continued higher — a classically bullish structural development.
- Bull-Bear Line: Price is currently trading above this level, confirming intermediate-term bullish bias.
- 2026 Opening Price: Price has reclaimed and is holding above the yearly opening price — a macro positive for bulls.
- Overhead Resistance Zone: A small internal range has produced rejection on the first, second, and third tests. Price is now approaching this same zone for a fourth attempt. A breakout through this level would open the path to the opposite side of the larger range — representing approximately a 40-point potential move.
- VWAPs: Upward-slanting VWAPs across sessions, with price laddering above previous day high and approaching last week's high — confirming bull momentum but also flagging a low-probability entry zone for new longs.
🎯 Today's Trade Scenarios: Speculator Special & Reclaim Setup
Two primary trade frameworks were outlined for Wednesday's session, with a preference stated for the Speculator Special given current market positioning. Both setups require price to deliver a defined entry — no chasing, no anticipation trades.
- Speculator Special: A pullback entry setup where price retraces from the current elevated level into a defined support area, then ladders back up. This setup signals continued bull strength and would offer a favorable risk-to-reward entry. Preferred over the reclaim setup because it demonstrates price is offering a technical gift rather than simply running away.
- Strong Level Reclaim Setup: If price opens and immediately reclaims the strong overhead range level, a long entry becomes viable targeting the opposite side of the larger range — a move of approximately 40 points. This requires a clean open, reclaim, and hold of the level before entry.
- Lotto Runner Add: Ideally, a trader who captured the trampoline trade from prior session would be holding a runner from down below and using Wednesday's reclaim of the strong level as an add point — layering into an existing winning trade rather than initiating a new one at resistance.
🧠 Trading Psychology: Patience, Plan Adherence & Missed Trades
A recurring theme throughout Wednesday's session is the emotional and psychological challenge of watching a correctly-identified setup produce a monster move without capturing the entry. Rather than responding with frustration or revenge trading, the professional approach is to extract the lesson, reaffirm the methodology, and wait for the next defined opportunity.
- Plan Adherence Over Outcome: The battle plan correctly identified the trampoline zone. Missing the entry by three points is an execution variance, not a methodology failure. The correct framework was in place — this distinction matters for long-term psychological stability.
- Don't Drive Angry: A named principle in the MicrosTrader community. When a trade is missed or a loss is taken, the danger of emotional decision-making — particularly countertrend shorting into bull momentum — is highest. The antidote is return to the plan.
- Waiting for Something New: When a move occurs without an entry, the correct response is to close that chapter and look for the next valid setup. Holding onto the missed trade mentally is a precursor to impulsive entries.
- "If I Jump On The Train, It'll Reverse In My Face": A self-aware acknowledgment that chasing extended moves is a low-probability behavior that experienced traders recognize and resist, even when the emotional pull is strong.
"Do not be calling tops. Do not be calling tops. Do not be calling tops. Get tomorrow's trades tonight at MicrosTrader.com."
COMMON QUESTIONS FOR ES FUTURES TRADERS
What is a "trampoline" setup in ES/MES futures trading?
A: A trampoline setup refers to a defined support zone on the chart where price is expected to "bounce" — meaning bulls absorb selling pressure and launch an aggressive move higher. The zone is identified in advance through the Battle Plan, and traders watch for price to dip into the area and show rejection before entering long. In Wednesday's session recap, price hit the prior day's mapped trampoline zone and produced a 55-point rally, validating the setup even though the specific entry was missed by three points.
What is the "Three 15-Point Candle Rule" and how should traders respond?
A: When ES or MES futures produce three consecutive candles of 15 points or more without an established position, this signals extreme short-term volatility and a near-zero probability chase entry. Attempting to jump on a fast-moving train at this point dramatically increases the risk of entering at the worst possible moment — just before a reversal. The correct response is to stand aside entirely, let the move complete, and wait for price to deliver a new, defined entry at a later technical level.
What is the "Speculator Special" setup?
A: The Speculator Special is a pullback-and-ladder setup where price retreats from an elevated or resistance area into a defined support zone, then resumes its uptrend. Rather than chasing price at resistance, traders wait for price to offer a discounted entry through a controlled retracement. This setup is preferred when markets are trending because it provides confluence between the pullback entry, the resumption of momentum, and a defined risk level — all hallmarks of a high-probability trade.
What does "don't drive angry" mean in trading context?
A: "Don't drive angry" is a MicrosTrader principle warning against emotional decision-making following a missed trade, a loss, or a frustrating session. When a trader is mentally "hot" — fixated on a missed opportunity or trying to recover losses — they are most vulnerable to impulsive, off-plan entries. The phrase is a direct reminder to stop, reset, and return to the structured battle plan before placing another trade.
Why was shorting discouraged despite price being at a multi-test resistance zone?
A: While the overhead resistance zone has rejected price on three prior occasions, the broader macro structure remains strongly bullish — price is above the 100-day value area low, the bull-bear line, and the 2026 opening price. VWAPs are upward-slanting, and recent session behavior shows bulls in control of the grind. In trending bull conditions, counter-trend shorts at resistance are low-probability trades. The correct approach is to wait for a defined long entry on a pullback, not to fade momentum with an aggressive short.
What should traders know about holding positions into Nvidia earnings tonight?
A: Nvidia (NVDA) reports earnings after the close on Wednesday. As a mega-cap AI-related stock, NVDA earnings releases frequently generate outsized after-hours moves that cascade into ES and MES futures. Traders holding runners, after-hours positions, or any overnight exposure should be aware that large, fast candles are possible in either direction. Risk management discipline — including defined stops and reduced size — is essential when a high-impact catalyst is in play.
What is the "Bull-Bear Line" and why does it matter?
A: The Bull-Bear Line is a key technical reference level used in the MicrosTrader Battle Plan framework to define the intermediate-term directional bias. When price trades above the Bull-Bear Line, bulls hold the structural advantage and long trades carry higher probability. When price trades below it, the bias shifts bearish. It functions as a macro filter — helping traders align their directional bias with the dominant market structure before drilling into intraday setups.
What are "Friday Rules" and when do they apply?
A: Friday Rules refer to a set of modified trading guidelines applied on Fridays — particularly when high-impact economic data (such as PPI, CPI, or NFP) is scheduled for release that morning. Under Friday Rules, traders typically reduce position size, avoid holding runners through the data release, and apply tighter risk parameters. The reduced liquidity and heightened volatility around Friday morning data make aggressive positioning inappropriate. This Friday features PPI, which makes Friday Rules applicable.
What is the significance of the 100-Day Value Area Low?
A: The 100-Day Value Area Low is a long-term volume-based reference level representing the lower boundary of price activity over the past 100 sessions. A confirmed break and hold above this level is a bullish structural development — it indicates that buyers have successfully absorbed supply at a significant price zone and are now in control above it. The fact that price broke above, retested, and held above this level is cited as a key component of the current constructive macro structure.
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