Best ES Emini Set Ups for Monday March 23, 2026
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Market Conditions & Volatility Assessment
The session began with an unexpected monster gap down on Sunday night, creating extreme volatility conditions. The ATR reached 28.9 points on a three-minute chart, indicating exceptionally high movement potential. This was characterized as a low news event week, but the potential for Trump announcements created the possibility for multi-day ATR moves at any moment.- Gap Analysis: Significant gap down from Sunday's close, much larger than anticipated
- Volatility Metrics: 28.9 ATR on 3-minute chart indicating extreme movement
- News Environment: Low scheduled impact events, but political announcement risk remains high
- Session Character: Gift-of-a-move conditions present for positioned traders
Battle Plan Trade Review & Execution
Five battle plan trades were mapped out around strong levels, with several providing significant opportunities for positioned traders. The analysis focused on reclaim levels and bounce zones that aligned with the core strategy principles.- Battle Plan 3: Long entry on reclaim of key level - never materialized as price failed to reclaim
- Battle Plan 4: Short entry with notes indicating potential 100+ point move to the south
- Battle Plan 5: Dual mapping for bounce trades off strong support levels
- Strong Level Execution: Aggressive traders had opportunities off published strong levels
- RTH Liquidity Grab: Price action showed classic liquidity grab patterns before major moves
Position Management & Risk Principles
The extreme volatility highlighted critical position management rules, particularly for counter-trend trades and profit-taking discipline. The session emphasized the "piece of the pie" philosophy over trying to capture entire moves.- Counter-Trend Rule: "See money, take money" - must take profit off counter-trend positions
- Three-Contract System: Peel profits progressively, keep single runner for extended moves
- Single Contract Management: Follow 50% rule unless treating position as lottery ticket
- Trailing Stops: Use dynamic trailing rather than static stops in fast-moving markets
- Strong Level Management: Trail stops behind consecutive strong levels during trending moves
Trading Psychology & Discipline
The session provided valuable lessons about trading discipline in extreme market conditions. The instructor demonstrated restraint by not forcing trades in unfavorable conditions, emphasizing the importance of trading on one's own terms.- Gift of a Move Concept: Rare explosive moves that provide exceptional profit opportunities
- Trading Restraint: Recognition that extreme volatility doesn't always create tradeable conditions
- Powder Dry Philosophy: Preserving capital for higher-probability setups rather than forcing trades
- Missed Entry Acceptance: Missing entries by small margins (couple ticks at 4:30 AM) is part of trading
"I want a piece of the pie. I don't need the whole pie."
COMMON QUESTIONS FOR ES FUTURES TRADERS
What is a "gift of a move" in futures trading?
A: A gift of a move refers to rare, explosive market movements that provide exceptional profit opportunities, often triggered by unexpected news or announcements. These moves can traverse multiple days' worth of Average True Range in a single session, creating outsized profit potential for positioned traders.
How should I manage counter-trend trades during high volatility?
A: Follow the "see money, take money" rule - always take profit off counter-trend positions quickly. If using multiple contracts, peel profits progressively and keep only a single runner. With single contracts, follow the 50% rule unless treating the position as a lottery ticket.
What are strong levels and how do they work in battle plan trading?
A: Strong levels are key price areas that are expected to provide significant support or resistance. Battle plan trades are wrapped around these levels, looking for reclaims, bounces, or breaks. They serve as reference points for entries, exits, and stop placement.
Why would a trader choose not to trade during extreme volatility?
A: Extreme volatility doesn't always create high-probability trading conditions. Sometimes the best decision is to keep "powder dry" and wait for more favorable setups rather than forcing trades in chaotic market conditions where risk management becomes extremely difficult.
How do you handle trailing stops in fast-moving markets?
A: Use dynamic trailing stops rather than static price levels. You can trail behind consecutive strong levels as price moves in your favor, or use automated trailing systems that adjust with price movement rather than trying to manually manage stops in fast-moving conditions.
What is the three-contract system for position management?
A: The three-contract system involves taking partial profits progressively - peel off contracts at predetermined levels while keeping a runner for potential extended moves. This allows you to secure profits while maintaining exposure to larger moves.
How do battle plan trades get mapped around strong levels?
A: Battle plan trades are strategically positioned around identified strong levels, looking for specific price action setups like reclaims, bounces, or breakdowns. Each trade has mapped targets and considers the relationship between price and these key levels.
What should international traders know about overnight opportunities?
A: International traders have advantages during overnight sessions when major moves occur outside US trading hours. The battle plan provides guidance for these opportunities, but traders must be prepared for the unique characteristics of low-liquidity overnight trading.
When is it appropriate to treat a trade like a "lottery ticket"?
A: With single contracts, you can occasionally treat a position as a lottery ticket by holding for larger moves rather than taking 50% profits, but only if you're willing to exit at breakeven if the trade reverses. This should be the exception, not the rule.
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